In the topsy-turvy world of fantasy football, one must search for constants that provide steady, consistent statistical results. If you play in a PPR (points-per-reception) league, then the best way to ensure that your running backs don’t provide you with crumbs on gameday is to target players who are an integral part of their team’s receiving game. After all, a three-yard rush provides minimal production for your team, but a three-yard catch is often the equivalent of a 13-23-yard rush, depending on your league’s scoring.
Even if your RB tanks on a given Sunday with, say, 17 rushes for a measly 46 yards, the four catches for 31 yards he also accrued is what would make this performance a somewhat respectable fantasy day.
Think of a PPR stud like a wife, husband, or mother who knows how to cook. Your relationship might have your ups and downs (or, in terms of fantasy football, good games mixed with bad games), but through thick and thin, you can get a solid meal out of her/him.
While there is nothing inherently wrong with someone who can’t cook, this basic inability to prepare food for a loved one is akin to a RB who can’t scrape together a handful of points on his worst fantasy day. No tailback in the NFL is going to rush for 100 yards with a TD every single week, but it doesn’t mean that you need to be left high and dry on the days your RB1 or RB2 faces a stout defensive front.
I will start my comparison of PPR deities with one of the more exquisite delicacies, and work my way down the quality of food chain to mere sustenance:
Editor’s Note: These PPR rankings do not necessarily correspond with typical RB rankings, so don’t freak out that names like Michael Turner or Thomas Jones are omitted. While talented, these aforementioned RBs haven’t proven to be pass catching RBs throughout their career (although the Falcons are claiming they’ll get Turner more involved, I’ll believe it when I see it).
Tier 1, aka Beef Wellington (55-80 catches): This group of RBs is good for 50-80 catches per year (3-5 receptions a game), which is the statistical equivalent of 8-12 TDs, depending on your league’s scoring system. If you play in a PPR league, these guys should already be highlighted on your cheat sheet.
Ray Rice - Even with Willis McGahee vulturing touchdowns, Rice is the PPR gold standard. Reminiscent of the glory days of Marshall Faulk, owning Ray Rice is like having a RB1 and a WR3 in one player. Baltimore’s offense has only improved in the offseason with the acquisition of WR Anquan Boldin and the continued maturation of QB Joe Flacco. Rice is young, very fast, blessed with a plus-offensive line, and looks likely to repeat last year’s numbers.
Frank Gore – An explosive back with little competition for carries in San Francisco, Gore has always demonstrated an ability not only to catch the ball, but to get his YAC (yards after catch) on as well. Factor in checkdown specialist QB Alex Smith, and Gore is primed for close to 50 catches this year. The one caveat about Gore is that he has yet to put in a complete 16-game season thus far in his three-year career, but don’t let that deter you from using your mid-first round pick on him in your PPR league.
Chris Johnson – Johnson has been so good during his first two years, it’s hard to fathom that he has still yet to hit his prime as a PPR RB. Rotoworld projects Johnson to catch 50 passes in addition to another monstrous season carrying the rock. But you shouldn’t need any additional reasons to use a top-three pick on the titanic Titan. One disclaimer: as much as we love us some CJ2K, his prediction of 2500 rushing yards seems a little optimistic.
Maurice Jones-Drew – As a goal-line featured back with soft hands, Jones-Drew provides all-around greatness, regardless of what kind of fantasy football you play. His YPC average may have dwindled down the stretch in 2009, but the workhorse back did everything fantasy owners could have hoped for. Owners can expect 50+ catches in 2010, but since the Jaguars don’t have many other offensive weapons, MJD could acquire an acute case of eight-in-the-box-itis early and often this season.
Steven Jackson – Having amassed 375 total touches in 2009, Jackson’s body was badly beaten by season’s end. The latest word from Rams’ training camp is that Jackson is 100% after offseason back surgery. While St. Louis ushers in a new era with Sam Bradford, their $78-million rookie quarterback, Jackson should remain the focal point of the Ram offense in 2010 as the Rams help Bradford acclimate to the speed of the NFL. S-Jax’s reception totals have increased each of his three years in the league from 38 in 2007 to 51 in 2009. The Rams may not be the prettiest team to watch, but Jackson is an inspiring workhorse with the heart of a warrior.
Adrian Peterson - A.P. is Rotoworld’s consensus #1 overall pick, and his expected involvement in the receiving game in lieu of departed RB Chester Taylor is a big reason for this. Not only will he accrue monster rushing totals and TDs (barring injury), but we are also projecting 57 catches for Purple Jesus as well. However, the uncertainty surrounding Bret Favre’s return/retirement, in addition to the health of wideouts Sidney Rice and Percy casts a bit of a cloud over the Viking offense. While some feel Favre’s retirement makes Peterson the undisputed #1 overall pick, my feeling is that Peterson would be better served not facing eight (or nine) in the box while defenses dare Tarvaris Jackson to beat them.
Tier 2: Rib Eye (41-54 receptions):
Pierre Thomas – As the starting halfback on the most explosive offense in the league, PT Cruiser looks like one of the best value picks as we head into 2010 draft season. Thomas not only figures to get gobs of goal-line opportunities now that TD vulture Mike Bell is on the Eagles, but Thomas should also help the Saints to run down the clock in the second half of games of which they are leading. Finally, he pulled down 39 receptions in spite of missing two games last season. Considering his catch totals have trended upwards each of his first three seasons as a pro, Thomas is a nice RB1 with considerable upside, or a dynamite RB2 if you use one of your earlier picks on a RB1.
Jamaal Charles - No RB burst on the scene from relative obscurity to fantasy stud status in 2009 quite like Charles. Asked to take over featured back duties from the always-classy Larry Johnson after LJ “tweeted” his way out of Kansas City, Charles logged 1120 rush yards and 40 catches in spite of only starting eight games. Thomas Jones was brought in from the Jets during the offseason to keep the smallish-for-a-featured-back Charles healthy through December, but the latter is expected to handle the passing down work. Charles is a multi-faceted threat who will be the centerpiece of the Chiefs’ offense. An effective Dwayne Bowe should help to keep defenses somewhat honest downfield, but since QB Matt Cassel hearts checking down to his backs, Charles is a very good PPR pick.
DeAngelo Williams - DeAngelo is involved in a productive timeshare in Carolina, but he has proven to be a superior pass-catcher to Jonathan Stewart. Even though both backs are healthy as training camp gets underway, there should be enough production for both Stewart to flourish in the ground game, as well as Williams’ ability to catch balls out of the backfield. DeAngelo only finished with 29 catches in 2009, but given that he missed three games and Jake Delhomme has left Carolina for Browner pastures, the Panther offense looks much more promising in 2010 than it did a year ago.
LeSean McCoy – Even with Donovan McNabb gone to Washington, the Eagles will remain a pass-first offense with first-year starter Kevin Kolb now under center. Although this doesn’t appear to bode well for their running backs, Brian Westbrook proved during his career that RBs can flourish in Philly. McCoy took over for Westbrook midway through the ’09 season, and demonstrated his PPR prowess since he caught three or more passes in eight games he played (a minimum of three catches is considered a solid PPR day for RBs). Mind you, McCoy doesn’t get pounded (only 20 carries twice all season), and still has to improve his pass-blocking. But given his steady hands, which only produced one lost fumble in his rookie season, there is upside here. If you believe Kolb will pick up where McNabb left off, then McCoy should be in a productive situation in Philly. Just don’t be shocked if FB Leonard Weaver and/or newly-acquired Mike Bell vulture the occasional goal-line TD.
Jahvid Best – Each fantasy football preseason, there seems to be one rookie whose potential we so-called industry experts like to drool over. This year, Best is the player who earns that honor. Blessed with sub-4.3 speed, elite pass-catching skills, and an immediate grasp of the Lions’ offense, Lions coach Jim Schwartz has already used the elusive F-word when referring to Best’s role in the offense (feature back…which F-word did you think I meant?). The Lions’ offense, led by a seasoned Matthew Stafford in his sophomore campaign, should be vastly improved in 2010. Although the Lions’ are fortified with depth at halfback, Best could be a fourth-round pick that makes his owners smile all season long if he stays healthy.
Tier 3: Salisbury Steak (26-40 receptions)
Joseph Addai - Addai has proven adept at catching the ball out of the backfield throughout his four-year career, and enters a contract year in 2010. However, reports early in training camp suggest that second-year halfback Donald Brown is a superior talent to Addai, and should cut into his featured back role as the season progresses. As Indy’s rushing attack ranked dead last in the NFL last season, make no mistake that this offense begins and ends with quarterback Peyton Manning. That said, the Colts’ injury-riddled offensive line and the emergence of Brown are two reasons Addai may not register another 40-catch campaign in his walk year in spite of Manning’s comfort level with him.
Ricky Williams / Ronnie Brown - Both of the Dolphins’ top RBs are skilled at catching the ball out of the backfield, but their expected timeshare will prevent each other from becoming standout PPR assets unless one of them misses significant time. Not unlike the aforementioned Panthers, Miami features a young quarterback and an effective, two-pronged rushing attack. When Ronnie and Ricky are both healthy, they complement each other well, but neither is going to top 25 touches per game as long as they’re spelling each other.
Knowshon Moreno – The Bronco offense is in a transitional phase right now given the shift from their traditional zone-blocking scheme to conventional power blocking that will accompany the new-look offense. Although the short passing strategy remains unclear without some game film, Kyle Orton makes a living on dinking and dunking while Moreno is a capable receiver with only veteran backup Correll Buckhalter competing for playing time. Denver has experienced some turnover, as well as key injuries that plagued them before training camp, and Moreno is no exception as he deals with a bum hamstring. However, the former Bulldog should be ready for Week 1, even if he does miss the preseason.
Darren Sproles / Ryan Mathews - Sproles is expected to operate primarily on third-downs and in the Chargers’ two-minute offense, but his overall value is affected by his inability to run between the tackles, as well as rookie Ryan Mathews’ presence in short-yardage situations. While the departed LaDainian Tomlinson also factored into the Charger passing game, Mathews is expected to pick up where LT left off. Charger head coach Norv Turner predicted 40 receptions for Mathews, but the rookie didn’t factor much in the receiving game during his days at Fresno State. The San Diego backfield is a bit up in the air until we get some game film on Mathews as a pro, but Sproles is an explosive receiver in the prime of his career, and could be leaned on a bit more if Mathews struggles, or the Charger passing game misfires due to the holdout/suspension of Vincent Jackson.
Matt Forte / Chester Taylor - Forte was a top-tier PPR machine as recently as last preseason after averaging 60 catches his first two years as a pro, but now will split duties with free agent acquisition Chester Taylor. Although Forte is slated to start, Taylor will likely cut into his receptions as well as his carries. Although Forte was first-round material before 2009, his poor performance (due partly to an early-season knee injury, as well as awful run-blocking) will knock him down at least a couple rounds for this year’s draft. Anyone who owned him last year has likely sworn off the unofficial fantasy bust of 2009, but Forte, now 100% healthy and “severely” outplaying Taylor in camp, could provide good PPR value in Mike Martz’s frenetic offensive schemes if you take a chance on him as a RB3.
Darren McFadden – Although the fourth overall pick of the 2008 draft has only excelled at underachieving thus far in his two-year NFL career, McFadden has a couple factors working in his favor as the ’10 season approaches. First, 2009 Oakland starter Justin Fargas was released in the offseason, leaving “Run DMC” and Michael Bush as the only experienced halfbacks on the roster. McFadden is the more gifted pass-catcher of the pair. Second, beleaguered quarterback project JaMarcus Russell was replaced by checkdown specialist Jason Campbell, who should establish a fine rapport dumping the pigskin to McFadden throughout the season. Finally, the Raiders improved their offensive line during in April’s draft, which should help the offense to move the chains more effectively in a weak division like the AFC West. If McFadden’s gimpy hamstring is healthy in time for Week 1, he has the upside to make a fine RB2.
Jerome Harrison – If he hadn’t spent half the season in coach Eric Mangini’s doghouse, Harrison may very well be a tier higher due to his penchant for catching passes out of the backfield. Harrison won the 2009 Billy Volek award (aka fantasy playoff MVP) for those who were ballsy enough to pick him up and start him Week 15 (I was not, and could have used him when Steven Jackson was declared a Week 16 inactive an hour before 4pm kickoff). Cleveland traded up to draft RB Montario Hardesty in the second-round in April, and Hardesty is expected to eventually battle Harrison in training camp for the starting job. However, Harrison remains the better PPR back of the two. With Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace sharing checkdown-er, quarterback duties in Cleveland all season, I can see Harrison getting 40-50 catches, even in a timeshare with Hardesty.
Clinton Portis – The former Bronco reunites with his former coach, Mike Shanahan. In 2002-03, Portis had his two most productive seasons in Denver. In spite of injuries and a lot of mileage since his days in the Mile High city, Portis has proven to be a capable asset both as a receiver, and is still one of the best backs in the league at pass blocking and picking up blitzers. The 2010 Washington backfield appears crowded what with veterans Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Ryan Torain also battling for potential carries. Regardless, Portis is the starter. If Shanahan mixes his backs in judiciously, then Portis should remain effective as long as he doesn’t get mercilessly pounded, and could make a decent RB3.
Chris Wells / Tim Hightower – While it seems odd that a player who caught 97 passes over the last two seasons in a high-powered Cardinal offense would fall to the third tier of PPR ratings, Hightower gradually relinquished playing time to Beanie Wells in 2009, and that trend figures to continue in 2010. While Hightower is expected to handle the majority of passing downs due to his intrepid pass blocking abilities, Wells stands to eventually take over early down work, as well as short yardage/goal-line situations. Unfortunately for Hightower, Kurt Warner’s retirement means coach Ken Whisenhunt will likely reel in the offense for incumbent starter Matt Leinart, creating more of a balanced offensive attack. Although Hightower is still practicing with the first team, he shouldn’t be viewed as more than a late-round RB3 for the long term.
Reggie Bush – The Saints have proven over the last few years that their offensive production is robust enough to bear two startable running backs in PPR leagues. While Pierre Thomas is the starting tailback, Bush provides more than simply third-down/scatback work, as he occasionally lines up in the slot. Bush seems like an intriguing pick this year because he claims to be 100% healthy for the first time since his rookie season. However, he is only projected to get approximately ten touches per game in addition to his punt and/or kick return duties. Chances are that someone will overpay for those ten touches and start him as an RB2. Don’t be that guy (or girl).
Shonn Greene / LaDainian Tomlinson / Joe McKnight – The Jets’ running backs underwent a major overhaul during the 2009-’10 offseason with the departure of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington coupled with the arrivals of LT and McKnight. As the Jets employ a run-first offense, there should be enough carries to distribute to each of the three RBs to maintain a somewhat steady rotation. Green figures to get the early down work while McKnight will handle mostly passing situations and two-minute offenses. Tomlinson, no longer equipped with the burst that made him a PPR force during his prime, will instead serve as a short-yardage specialist, and will likely spell Green on the occasional series. Although Greene has been referred to as the “bell cow” by coach Rex Ryan, don’t expect the early-down back to get as many receptions as McKnight.
Carnell Williams / Derrick Ward – Williams shocked the football world by playing a full season in 2009, and figures to serve as the Bucs’ starting halfback with Ward as a clear backup. However, Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris has said that he will go with the “hot hand” in the running game, which opens things up for Ward a bit. While both RBs are decent pass catchers, the division of snaps is what will differentiate their value in PPR leagues. As the situation currently stands, Cadillac has more value as a RB3 while Ward is more RB4/flex material at this point in the preseason, but stay tuned to this situation in case Cadillac gets in a fender-bender.
Felix Jones – In the crowded Dallas backfield, Jones is the RB to target. As he offers more durability than Marion Barber and more playmaking upside than Tashard Choice, Jones is also becoming more of a factor in the Cowboy passing game, having attained three or more catches in three of the last five weeks of 2009. While rookie WR Dez Bryant recovers from a high ankle sprain, Jones is handling kickoff return duties. However, this arrangement on special teams shouldn’t last once Bryant returns to action.
Fred Jackson / C.J. Spiller – A quandary in the Buffalo running game surfaces as head coach Chan Gailey has had a history of using a feature back in his offenses over his career. Jackson is currently running with the first team in training camp while backup Marshawn Lynch has said all the right things to the media despite currently serving as a backup. Enter first-round pick C.J. Spiller, and this situation gets even messier, given that all three backs can be talented PPR assets. Each player is healthy, and has the ability to catch at least 40 balls this season, but Spiller could serve more of a Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin-type role and line up in the slot on many occasions. I would avoid Jackson and Spiller until the mid-to-later rounds as a speculative RB3. Spiller has nice upside who may run with the ones sooner than later, but if he is limited to only occasional reps and mostly special teams, then he could be overvalued by the preseason hype train.
Tier 4: Mac n’ Cheese (16-25 receptions)
Justin Forsett / Leon Washington – The crowded backfield in Seattle features two similar RBs in Washington and Forsett who must vie for playing time along with Julius Jones (currently on Seattle’s RB “back burner”, not a PPR option), and don’t figure to spend much time together on the field. In spite of their presence, Seahawk head coach Pete Carroll is reportedly shopping for a bruiser-type back who can run between the tackles and move the chains in short-yardage situations. Although both Forsett and Washington are talented and healthy, I’d avoid using a roster spot on either until injuries or great play thrusts one of the two into the spotlight. Otherwise, Seattle’s offense isn’t explosive enough to warrant two rosterable, pass-catching RBs.
Marion Barber – Although Marion the Barbarian has displayed impressive pass-catching skills for a so-called “bruiser” throughout his career, a committee timeshare with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will limit his touches in the Cowboy backfield. Barber has proven to be the superior PPR back to Jones. However, as his dwindling YPC in the final weeks of 2009 will attest, Barber’s body tends to break down towards the latter stages of the season. Owner Jerry Jones has said that Barber will likely be used in a “closer” role, but teams rarely pass when they’re running out the clock in the second half. Hence, Barber is not the tasty RB2 he was a couple preseasons ago, so stay away unless you want a RB3 who only gets 10-12 touches a game (hint: you don’t).
Rashard Mendenhall – Steeler head coach Mike Tomlin will have Mendenhall continue serving as Pittsburgh’s goal-line back, but he has been more of an afterthought in their passing attack. Despite the fact that QB Ben Roethlisberger completed 56 more passes in 2009 than any other season during his up-and-down career, Mendenhall only caught 25 balls. The Steelers figure to run more in 2010, so Mendenhall will be more valuable for his goal line work than his receiving skills. Fortunately for Mendenhall’s owners, rookie RB Jonathan Dwyer and veteran Mewelde Moore have been less-than-impressive in camp thus far, so job security doesn’t figure to be an issue at the moment. In most leagues, Mendenhall should be a late first-round pick.
Ryan Grant – Grant is the perfect example of a RB1 in non-PPR leagues who may get drafted a little earlier than he should in PPR leagues. Having only mustered 25 catches in spite of a full season in Green Bay’s backfield, Grant hasn’t taken the necessary steps forward to prove his mettle in the Packers’ prolific passing attack. In spite of his relatively meager reception totals, Grant would be a solid RB2 if you can grab him in the fourth round. Taking Grant any earlier in a PPR draft would be reaching, as Brandon Jackson handles most of Green Bay’s third-down work.
Brandon Jacobs / Ahmad Bradshaw – Although Jacobs has reportedly looked “fast and lean” thus far in training camp, he is expected to share snaps 50/50 with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs frustrated his owners who spent a second-round pick for his lackluster production in 2009, and has served as more of a traditional goal-line back as opposed to a standout pass-catcher. Still, if he can approach the 15 TDs he piled up in 2008, Jacobs’ owners won’t be to upset about the shortage of receptions, even if his playing time is split with Bradshaw. Jacobs would be better served as a RB3 in PPR leagues. Bradshaw is a safer bet for more catches and a better PPR value pick, but won’t provide as many trips to the end zone as Jacobs.
Cedric Benson – Sometimes, you should just ignore your instincts and blindly trust fantasy football experts. I wasn’t going to touch the underachieving Benson with a ten-foot pole in last years’ draft, in spite of rampant preseason hype surrounding him. Fast forward to the end of the season, and the Bengal RB1 turned out to be one of the best value picks of the year. In spite of his impressive season as Cincy’s workhorse, Benson is only good for one catch or so per game. As he provides an example of a better non-PPR RB, don’t take the (alleged) bar brawler until the third or fourth round as your RB2, even if he isn’t facing a suspension from the league for repeated off-field antics.
Hot Pockets (Bye-week PPR Fill-ins): Bye-week PPR replacements who can get you a handful of catches, but not much more:
Kevin Faulk – Marshall’s younger cousin is considered the Peter Pan of running backs given that he still averaged 5.4 YPC at 33 years young in 2009. Faulk is someone playing for a high-powered offense who you can pick up off the waiver wire to get a few receptions and carries if your team is beset by byes or injuries, but don’t expect a touchdown. If New England’s offense returns to form, you could do worse than pick up and start Faulk as your bye-week flex/RB3.
Mewelde Moore – Unless Steeler starter Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt or misses game time, Moore isn’t a rosterable option in most fantasy leagues. However, if Moore finds himself starting in Mendenhall’s absence, then the Steeler offense will likely revert to its pass-first identity from 2009. While Moore is far from a sure bet for goal-line work, 40-50 catches isn’t out of the question if he gets extended playing time.
Kevin Smith – Smith was drafted in 2008 to serve as Detroit’s feature back, but now will serve as little more than a handcuff for Jahvid Best owners. Regardless, Jones is just about fully recovered from ACL surgery, and his limited reps should keep him healthy. Before his injury, however, Smith proved to be more than capable in the receiving game by averaging 40 receptions each of his first two seasons. If Best gets hurt or proves ineffective at the professional level, Smith will at least provide RB3 value in PPR leagues if the Lions offense is as fluid in 2010 as experts are predicting.
Steve Slaton - As the man who gave Matt Forte a run for 2009 Fantasy Bust of the Year, Slaton has been relegated to kickoff return duties as well as third down work thus far in training camp. He is fully recovered from offseason surgery that repaired nerve damage in his neck, but the Texans drafted bruising back Ben Tate to offset the team’s reliance on the passing game. As the situation currently stands, Tate and holdover Arian Foster are battling for the starting RB job while Slaton will likely be behind to work on passing downs. He might put up some points if you need a bye-week replacement, but Slaton’s stock has plummeted as much as any active player’s has between last year and this year…he’s the anti-Jamaal Charles. Stay away on draft day.
Tashard Choice – If he’s available on your waiver wire during a bye week or injury crunch, then Choice is a candidate with high upside in case Marion Barber or Felix Jones misses playing time. Although he possesses little value as the Cowboys’ third RB, Choice proved to be a capable PPR back when he was called to extensive action last season against Carolina and Denver in Weeks 3 and 4. If you’re thin at RB, Choice makes a good roster stash given the historically fleeting health of both Barber and Jones.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
IF THIS ISN’T YOUR FIRST DRAFT…
After a year or two of playing fantasy football, you may feel like you’re learning the finer points of the game that separate the rookies from the veterans. Not unlike the mindset of a recent college graduate, you are now grasping how much there is still to learn on an annual basis about the nuances of assessing the talent pool, the revolving door of NFL head coaches and front office executives, and how this turnover affects said talent.
In addition to the NFL’s daily offseason activities, you may realize that you have a lot of learn about the tendencies of the fellow fantasy general managers in your league that you’ll match wits with come draft day.
1. Availability of talent per position
Each preseason, fantasy football experts across the land assess which positions are rich in talent compared to other positions with less depth. Although there are obviously the same number of NFL players from year-to-year in the league (barring expansion, of course), some years produce, say fewer quality fantasy quarterbacks or running backs than others.
Headed into the 2010 preseason, there are actually more startable fantasy QBs than a year ago. As an example, Houston’s Matt Schaub has approached stud status. Before the 2009 season, he was a high-upside pick that was considered a steal in the fifth or sixth round. In 2010, Schaub likely won’t last past the third round.
Brett Favre was a speculative pick in what was supposed to be a run-based offense in Minnesota. Many prognosticators felt that, at this stage of Favre’s storied career, he would simply be a game manager whose primary responsibility would be handing off the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Assuming Favre doesn’t retire since he recently underwent ankle surgery, the 40-year-old provides QB1 upside, something we didn’t really see coming in 2009.
Other fantasy QBs that are new to the draft radar in 2010:
Philadephia’s Kevin Kolb, who will take over under center for the traded Donovan McNabb. Kolb has performed brilliantly during brief stints on the field during his career, and Eagle Nation has been calling for him for years.
Baltimore’s Joe Flacco really stepped up both his play and leadership in 2009, and with the addition of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin, he will certainly get drafted a lot earlier in 2010 than 2009.
Matt Moore, Chad Henne, the aforementioned McNabb, and Jason Campbell all provide upgrades at quarterback for the Panthers, Dolphins, Redskins, and Raiders compared to these teams’ ‘09 starters.
Former first-round picks Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith each took major steps forward towards establishing themselves as fantasy starters, and will command more dialogue as players to target as opposed to being players to settle for.
2009 disappointments Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel are expected to bounce back after a rough first year with their new teams. Cutler will benefit from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s expansion of the playbook, and Cassel has highly-touted rookie wideout Dexter McCluster to add to a somewhat deep receiving corps that includes Dwayne Bowe, a rejuvenated Chris Chambers, and newly-acquired possession threat Jerheme Urban.
Given the changing landscape in fantasy football with regards to quarterbacks, one notices that there are more startable QBs than a year ago. For this reason, you should apply principles of supply and demand to your draft. Since there is a bigger supply of signal callers, you should address other positions with scarcer talent before QB. In other words, wait a round or two to pick your QBs, and grab an elite RB or WR with that earlier pick instead, especially in leagues that only start one quarterback per fantasy team.
2. ADP rankings
Do ADP’s reflected in FF publications correctly address your league’s scoring system?
Before you blindly trust the Average Draft Position Rankings, make sure that the list that you are referencing is designed for the same type of league that you are in. If you are in a “touchdown league”, where the vast majority of points scored is from trips to the end zone, then you shouldn’t use points-per-reception ADP Rankings for your draft. Or, if you are planning for a PPR draft, don’t use a cheat sheet for yardage-heavy leagues, as the player valuations can alter completely (e.g. Matt Forte)
Cross-reference ADP with where you are in draft
During your draft, you’ll see players that you’ve been targeting all preseason, and are hot to snatch that player for your team. Before you click ‘draft player’, take a look at your ADP rankings. If that player’s ADP Ranking is, say, 15-20 points lower than your current draft position, then you might want to wait a round, as there is a decent chance that your guy will be available in the next round.
For example, let’s say you’re a big Bret Favre fan, and that he’s coming back in 2010 to play for the Vikings again. During the fourth round of a 12-team league, you’re tempted to take Favre as your QB1 after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo have been selected. If Favre’s ADP is around, say, 92, and you’re only on the 43rd pick, then you should know that you can probably wait on Favre for a couple rounds. However, if you have to have him, then take him with a seventh-rounder, as Favre theoretically should be available then.
ADP is compiled from averaging out hundreds of drafts from all over the fantasy football industry. The most knowledgeable fantasy pundits essentially voice their opinion in the valuation of the talent via the draft, and ADP is a critical tool in helping you to prepare for your draft.
Remember this equation when thinking in terms of draft valuation: ADP / # of teams in league = round you should draft a player
Don’t let ADP serve as the know-all, end-all…if you’re hot for a particular player, his ADP is a bit lower than where you’re at in your draft, the next player available at his position is a big drop off in talent and upside, and you feel like that person won’t be available next round, then reach a little if you feel you have to, but don’t make a habit of it.
3. Latest injuries/depth chart shifts/holdout news
Stay aware - in today’s age of information, there is no reason we can’t get up-to-the-minute info from dozens of NFL beat writers around the league. If you have an internet connection, you should know exactly who is damaged goods by the time your draft comes around.
4. How will coaching changes affect the fantasy landscape? Mike Martz, new OC in Chicago, Mike Shanahan in Washington, Pete Carroll in Seattle, Chan Gailey in Buffalo,
Martz should breathe life into a Chicago passing game that ranked 17th in the NFL in 2009. This is great news for owners of Jay Cutler in dynasty leagues, as this personnel hire will elevate Cutler’s fantasy stock, and should also benefit wideouts like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and possibly Earl Bennett. When Martz was coaching the St. Louis Rams in the late 1990s, the team, led by QB Kurt Warner, was known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and was arguably the most explosive offense of its time. Unfortunately for tight end Greg Olsen, Martz has a history of having his tight ends stay in to block more than running pass patterns, so I would advise staying away from Olsen this year.
When Martz went to Detroit in 2006 to serve as offensive coordinator and quarterbackss coach, he helped 34-year-old quarterback Jon Kitna reach the 4000-yard plateau, and also launched the once-dormant Lions’ passing game to rank 7th in the NFL in 2006.
Martz didn’t encounter the same type of success in San Francisco when he was hired to serve as the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2008. Equipped with a still-green Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O’Sullivan, the coach faced an uphill battle from a talent perspective before being replaced by Mike Singletary and a ball-control mindset midway through the season.
When Shanahan coached the Broncos from 1995-2008, he was famous for employing a zone-blocking scheme that was popularized by other NFL teams, and for churning out the most unlikely of 1000-yard backs (see: Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson). Washington has three veteran backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Although Portis made a name for himself in Shanahan’s scheme in Denver before getting traded to Washington, he isn’t the same running back with fresh legs as he was seven years ago. For that matter, Parker or L.J. are also shells of their former selves, but Redskin Nation is hoping that the running-back-by-committee, led by the so-called “Mastermind”, produces an effective ground game in the nation’s capital in 2010.
While it’s too soon to assess whether any of the Washington RBs will warrant fantasy consideration, one should expect Shanahan to employ a ground attack to the Redskin offense this season with three former Pro Bowlers all vying for carries.
When the name Pete Carroll is mentioned, the first thought that comes to mind is the high-powered pro-style offense he employed at USC. Having coached a well-oiled scoring machine in New England from 1997-1999, Carroll knows the ins and outs of running a successful offensive scheme at any level.
Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks’ 21st-ranked offense lacks many of the same effective tools that Carroll had in New England over ten years ago. Instead of Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin in their prime, Seattle will trot out 34-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who appears to be in the waning years of his playing career, and a RBBC consisting of Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and an injured Leon Washington (currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list, recovering from an awful compound leg fracture sustained last year).
Expect Carroll to resuscitate the Seahawks’ passing attack in 2010. Wide receiver T. J. Houshmanzadeh should improve on a disappointing first season with Seattle, highly-touted Notre Dame rookie Golden Tate can provide explosiveness at flanker, and talented tight end John Carlson could hopefully find more consistency.
The Buffalo Bills’ 30th-ranked offense in 2009 was so inept that watching them was well, offensive. Even though Buffalo was proactive in improving the team in the previous offseason by signing an over-the-hill WR Terrell Owens (who will not return to the team in 2010), they had been trying to unload embattled RB Marshawn Lynch during a critical time when they should be adding talent.
Chan Gailey is the Bills’ new head coach whose most recent NFL experience was serving as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2008. Gailey was eventually stripped of play-calling duties by head coach Todd Haley in early 2009. Although he led the Cowboys to consecutive playoff runs in 1998-99, Gailey’s name doesn’t share the same cache in fantasy football circles as Martz or Shanahan. I wouldn’t get too excited about any Bills in 2010 except for perhaps RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in PPR leagues, or the Bills’ defense in occasional spot starts at home.
5. Assess your draft order – bookend pick? Middle pick? How will that affect your drafting?
In your first season or two of fantasy football, you probably jumped for joy when the draft lottery resulted that you would have the No. 1 pick, and were outraged if you drew last.
By the time you become a fantasy football veteran, you shouldn’t be too particular about what number pick you have. Most fantasy experts are able to field a great team regardless of where they are positioned in the draft order. However, you need to approach your player selections a bit differently with a bookend pick as opposed to if you had, say, the fifth or sixth pick.
If you have the #1 pick in a serpentine-style draft (1,2,3,4,5,5,4,3,2,1), you’ll have to wait 19-22 picks until your next selection (depending on whether your league has 10 or 12 teams), so you need to stay aware of the remainder of talent levels per position compared to your team’s needs as you flesh out your roster throughout the draft.
For example, if you have the #2 overall pick, and haven’t drafted a RB1 by the end of the second round, then you will likely experience a steep dropoff in available RB1’s as your league competitors stock their teams with the available backs. In other words, if you haven’t taken a RB by the third round, your team will likely already be behind the 8-ball in terms of missing production from a vital position with relatively few available superstars that can flourish on a weekly basis.
You may have seen a draft expert or two categorize the NFL player pool into tiers, or echelons of talent. If you have a bookend pick (first or last in order), no quarterback on your roster yet, and your tier sheet tells you that there is only one top-echelon QB left, then you had better grab that last QB1 before someone else does with one of the next 19-22 picks. If you lag on addressing needs for your roster at the appropriate time, you may be forced to trot out a sub-par fantasy starter like, say, Kyle Orton as your starting signal caller every single week. Even if that available QB1 isn’t the specific QB1 you were targeting, it’s probably in your team’s best interest to take the best player available at that stage of the draft.
Use these aforementioned tiers wisely, color-code them if necessary, and keep them updated in case there’s an injury late in the preseason that affects a player’s ADP.
One more note regarding ADP and bookend picks: If you really want a particular player and don’t want to reach for a guy whose ADP is too low relative to the current round, but you’re also not sure if that player will fall to you in the following round, then go ahead and grab that guy as long as you’re not reaching more than 15-20 points higher than the player’s ADP. If this player fills a legitimate need as previously mentioned, then your team should make the acquisition. If said player’s ADP is more than 20 points higher, then he should theoretically fall to the next round.
6. Your drafting neighbor’s tendencies (favorite team, player, particular philosophies toward drafting)
Based on drafts from previous seasons, does your drafting neighbor tend to draft receivers early? Does your drafting neighbor have a favorite NFL team, and may be inclined to draft one or several players from that team? Does your drafting neighbor tend to go for established Pro Bowlers or future HOFers? Or does he tend to target the trendy, high-upside but unproven diamonds in the rough that are getting love from FF pundits in the preseason? Furthermore, does your neighbor fall in line during runs on a position, or is he more cavalier in his drafting strategy? If three TEs are consecutively drafted in front of him, will he draft a fourth, or stay his own course?
If you’ve played fantasy football with the current crop of players in previous seasons, then you already have data on how your league mates draft. Dig up the previous year’s draft results, and study the drafts of the two teams that draft before and after you. Pay attention to whether they drafted RBs early, QBs or WRs late, and then have a casual discussion about last year’s draft to see which picks they regretted making. This conversation should lend some insight as to how they’ll draft in 2010.
7. How to get under competitors’ skin during draft
Almost every draft has “That guy”, the guy whose mindset seems to be more dedicated to irritating the league members than fielding a team from scratch. Don’t be afraid to be “That guy”. The only weapon you can use in a draft that doesn’t cross the line of good taste and physically impede your competitors’ strategy is the written word, but they can come in many different forms. Those of you fantasy football aficionados who moonlight in hacking into computers should refrain from uploading a virus to your competitors’ workstations, as this diabolical strategy is considered poor form.
Some would label this strategy as “bush league”. That said, fantasy football is all about gamesmanship, so don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops for one of the most critical three-hour-stretches of the entire year.
Chat / Video Chat – send your league members website links, articles, or video/Youtube links during your live draft in the draft chat room. The links, articles and video clips can be football or non-football-related. If they’re football-related, then they might get read and succeed in distracting your opponents. If it’s something else (except perhaps porn), your opponents may disregard your correspondence until after the draft.
Email – Find out which of your league mates gets emails to their cellphones and check their phones for emails regularly, then take advantage of this distraction by emailing them with inane questions, quips, quotes and attachments. Generate distractions that will cause your competitors to lose focus.
Telephone Call / Text – I wouldn’t waste too much time talking on the telephone because you may be just as easily distract yourself by the conversation instead of your opponents, or said opponent may simply ignore your call. Sending quick texts can affect your football league opponents’ concentration and hinder them from achieving their drafting objectives.
Note on piece of paper – If you’re sharing the same physical room as your league mates, then go old school by bringing several pieces of paper and a thick marker. After you make your pick, and are not scheduled to make your next selection for several minutes, then you’ll have time to divert your opponents’ attention. Make a series of controversial notes or signs that can range from mocking competitors’ recent picks, to insulting members of their immediate family, to the most non-sequitor nonsense you can possibly conceive.
In any case, this section is devoted to finding ways to push people’s buttons. If you know your league mates well enough, then you should have specific ideas of how to piss off your opponents, and throw them off their game.
In addition to the NFL’s daily offseason activities, you may realize that you have a lot of learn about the tendencies of the fellow fantasy general managers in your league that you’ll match wits with come draft day.
1. Availability of talent per position
Each preseason, fantasy football experts across the land assess which positions are rich in talent compared to other positions with less depth. Although there are obviously the same number of NFL players from year-to-year in the league (barring expansion, of course), some years produce, say fewer quality fantasy quarterbacks or running backs than others.
Headed into the 2010 preseason, there are actually more startable fantasy QBs than a year ago. As an example, Houston’s Matt Schaub has approached stud status. Before the 2009 season, he was a high-upside pick that was considered a steal in the fifth or sixth round. In 2010, Schaub likely won’t last past the third round.
Brett Favre was a speculative pick in what was supposed to be a run-based offense in Minnesota. Many prognosticators felt that, at this stage of Favre’s storied career, he would simply be a game manager whose primary responsibility would be handing off the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Assuming Favre doesn’t retire since he recently underwent ankle surgery, the 40-year-old provides QB1 upside, something we didn’t really see coming in 2009.
Other fantasy QBs that are new to the draft radar in 2010:
Philadephia’s Kevin Kolb, who will take over under center for the traded Donovan McNabb. Kolb has performed brilliantly during brief stints on the field during his career, and Eagle Nation has been calling for him for years.
Baltimore’s Joe Flacco really stepped up both his play and leadership in 2009, and with the addition of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin, he will certainly get drafted a lot earlier in 2010 than 2009.
Matt Moore, Chad Henne, the aforementioned McNabb, and Jason Campbell all provide upgrades at quarterback for the Panthers, Dolphins, Redskins, and Raiders compared to these teams’ ‘09 starters.
Former first-round picks Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith each took major steps forward towards establishing themselves as fantasy starters, and will command more dialogue as players to target as opposed to being players to settle for.
2009 disappointments Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel are expected to bounce back after a rough first year with their new teams. Cutler will benefit from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s expansion of the playbook, and Cassel has highly-touted rookie wideout Dexter McCluster to add to a somewhat deep receiving corps that includes Dwayne Bowe, a rejuvenated Chris Chambers, and newly-acquired possession threat Jerheme Urban.
Given the changing landscape in fantasy football with regards to quarterbacks, one notices that there are more startable QBs than a year ago. For this reason, you should apply principles of supply and demand to your draft. Since there is a bigger supply of signal callers, you should address other positions with scarcer talent before QB. In other words, wait a round or two to pick your QBs, and grab an elite RB or WR with that earlier pick instead, especially in leagues that only start one quarterback per fantasy team.
2. ADP rankings
Do ADP’s reflected in FF publications correctly address your league’s scoring system?
Before you blindly trust the Average Draft Position Rankings, make sure that the list that you are referencing is designed for the same type of league that you are in. If you are in a “touchdown league”, where the vast majority of points scored is from trips to the end zone, then you shouldn’t use points-per-reception ADP Rankings for your draft. Or, if you are planning for a PPR draft, don’t use a cheat sheet for yardage-heavy leagues, as the player valuations can alter completely (e.g. Matt Forte)
Cross-reference ADP with where you are in draft
During your draft, you’ll see players that you’ve been targeting all preseason, and are hot to snatch that player for your team. Before you click ‘draft player’, take a look at your ADP rankings. If that player’s ADP Ranking is, say, 15-20 points lower than your current draft position, then you might want to wait a round, as there is a decent chance that your guy will be available in the next round.
For example, let’s say you’re a big Bret Favre fan, and that he’s coming back in 2010 to play for the Vikings again. During the fourth round of a 12-team league, you’re tempted to take Favre as your QB1 after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo have been selected. If Favre’s ADP is around, say, 92, and you’re only on the 43rd pick, then you should know that you can probably wait on Favre for a couple rounds. However, if you have to have him, then take him with a seventh-rounder, as Favre theoretically should be available then.
ADP is compiled from averaging out hundreds of drafts from all over the fantasy football industry. The most knowledgeable fantasy pundits essentially voice their opinion in the valuation of the talent via the draft, and ADP is a critical tool in helping you to prepare for your draft.
Remember this equation when thinking in terms of draft valuation: ADP / # of teams in league = round you should draft a player
Don’t let ADP serve as the know-all, end-all…if you’re hot for a particular player, his ADP is a bit lower than where you’re at in your draft, the next player available at his position is a big drop off in talent and upside, and you feel like that person won’t be available next round, then reach a little if you feel you have to, but don’t make a habit of it.
3. Latest injuries/depth chart shifts/holdout news
Stay aware - in today’s age of information, there is no reason we can’t get up-to-the-minute info from dozens of NFL beat writers around the league. If you have an internet connection, you should know exactly who is damaged goods by the time your draft comes around.
4. How will coaching changes affect the fantasy landscape? Mike Martz, new OC in Chicago, Mike Shanahan in Washington, Pete Carroll in Seattle, Chan Gailey in Buffalo,
Martz should breathe life into a Chicago passing game that ranked 17th in the NFL in 2009. This is great news for owners of Jay Cutler in dynasty leagues, as this personnel hire will elevate Cutler’s fantasy stock, and should also benefit wideouts like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and possibly Earl Bennett. When Martz was coaching the St. Louis Rams in the late 1990s, the team, led by QB Kurt Warner, was known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and was arguably the most explosive offense of its time. Unfortunately for tight end Greg Olsen, Martz has a history of having his tight ends stay in to block more than running pass patterns, so I would advise staying away from Olsen this year.
When Martz went to Detroit in 2006 to serve as offensive coordinator and quarterbackss coach, he helped 34-year-old quarterback Jon Kitna reach the 4000-yard plateau, and also launched the once-dormant Lions’ passing game to rank 7th in the NFL in 2006.
Martz didn’t encounter the same type of success in San Francisco when he was hired to serve as the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2008. Equipped with a still-green Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O’Sullivan, the coach faced an uphill battle from a talent perspective before being replaced by Mike Singletary and a ball-control mindset midway through the season.
When Shanahan coached the Broncos from 1995-2008, he was famous for employing a zone-blocking scheme that was popularized by other NFL teams, and for churning out the most unlikely of 1000-yard backs (see: Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson). Washington has three veteran backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Although Portis made a name for himself in Shanahan’s scheme in Denver before getting traded to Washington, he isn’t the same running back with fresh legs as he was seven years ago. For that matter, Parker or L.J. are also shells of their former selves, but Redskin Nation is hoping that the running-back-by-committee, led by the so-called “Mastermind”, produces an effective ground game in the nation’s capital in 2010.
While it’s too soon to assess whether any of the Washington RBs will warrant fantasy consideration, one should expect Shanahan to employ a ground attack to the Redskin offense this season with three former Pro Bowlers all vying for carries.
When the name Pete Carroll is mentioned, the first thought that comes to mind is the high-powered pro-style offense he employed at USC. Having coached a well-oiled scoring machine in New England from 1997-1999, Carroll knows the ins and outs of running a successful offensive scheme at any level.
Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks’ 21st-ranked offense lacks many of the same effective tools that Carroll had in New England over ten years ago. Instead of Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin in their prime, Seattle will trot out 34-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who appears to be in the waning years of his playing career, and a RBBC consisting of Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and an injured Leon Washington (currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list, recovering from an awful compound leg fracture sustained last year).
Expect Carroll to resuscitate the Seahawks’ passing attack in 2010. Wide receiver T. J. Houshmanzadeh should improve on a disappointing first season with Seattle, highly-touted Notre Dame rookie Golden Tate can provide explosiveness at flanker, and talented tight end John Carlson could hopefully find more consistency.
The Buffalo Bills’ 30th-ranked offense in 2009 was so inept that watching them was well, offensive. Even though Buffalo was proactive in improving the team in the previous offseason by signing an over-the-hill WR Terrell Owens (who will not return to the team in 2010), they had been trying to unload embattled RB Marshawn Lynch during a critical time when they should be adding talent.
Chan Gailey is the Bills’ new head coach whose most recent NFL experience was serving as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2008. Gailey was eventually stripped of play-calling duties by head coach Todd Haley in early 2009. Although he led the Cowboys to consecutive playoff runs in 1998-99, Gailey’s name doesn’t share the same cache in fantasy football circles as Martz or Shanahan. I wouldn’t get too excited about any Bills in 2010 except for perhaps RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in PPR leagues, or the Bills’ defense in occasional spot starts at home.
5. Assess your draft order – bookend pick? Middle pick? How will that affect your drafting?
In your first season or two of fantasy football, you probably jumped for joy when the draft lottery resulted that you would have the No. 1 pick, and were outraged if you drew last.
By the time you become a fantasy football veteran, you shouldn’t be too particular about what number pick you have. Most fantasy experts are able to field a great team regardless of where they are positioned in the draft order. However, you need to approach your player selections a bit differently with a bookend pick as opposed to if you had, say, the fifth or sixth pick.
If you have the #1 pick in a serpentine-style draft (1,2,3,4,5,5,4,3,2,1), you’ll have to wait 19-22 picks until your next selection (depending on whether your league has 10 or 12 teams), so you need to stay aware of the remainder of talent levels per position compared to your team’s needs as you flesh out your roster throughout the draft.
For example, if you have the #2 overall pick, and haven’t drafted a RB1 by the end of the second round, then you will likely experience a steep dropoff in available RB1’s as your league competitors stock their teams with the available backs. In other words, if you haven’t taken a RB by the third round, your team will likely already be behind the 8-ball in terms of missing production from a vital position with relatively few available superstars that can flourish on a weekly basis.
You may have seen a draft expert or two categorize the NFL player pool into tiers, or echelons of talent. If you have a bookend pick (first or last in order), no quarterback on your roster yet, and your tier sheet tells you that there is only one top-echelon QB left, then you had better grab that last QB1 before someone else does with one of the next 19-22 picks. If you lag on addressing needs for your roster at the appropriate time, you may be forced to trot out a sub-par fantasy starter like, say, Kyle Orton as your starting signal caller every single week. Even if that available QB1 isn’t the specific QB1 you were targeting, it’s probably in your team’s best interest to take the best player available at that stage of the draft.
Use these aforementioned tiers wisely, color-code them if necessary, and keep them updated in case there’s an injury late in the preseason that affects a player’s ADP.
One more note regarding ADP and bookend picks: If you really want a particular player and don’t want to reach for a guy whose ADP is too low relative to the current round, but you’re also not sure if that player will fall to you in the following round, then go ahead and grab that guy as long as you’re not reaching more than 15-20 points higher than the player’s ADP. If this player fills a legitimate need as previously mentioned, then your team should make the acquisition. If said player’s ADP is more than 20 points higher, then he should theoretically fall to the next round.
6. Your drafting neighbor’s tendencies (favorite team, player, particular philosophies toward drafting)
Based on drafts from previous seasons, does your drafting neighbor tend to draft receivers early? Does your drafting neighbor have a favorite NFL team, and may be inclined to draft one or several players from that team? Does your drafting neighbor tend to go for established Pro Bowlers or future HOFers? Or does he tend to target the trendy, high-upside but unproven diamonds in the rough that are getting love from FF pundits in the preseason? Furthermore, does your neighbor fall in line during runs on a position, or is he more cavalier in his drafting strategy? If three TEs are consecutively drafted in front of him, will he draft a fourth, or stay his own course?
If you’ve played fantasy football with the current crop of players in previous seasons, then you already have data on how your league mates draft. Dig up the previous year’s draft results, and study the drafts of the two teams that draft before and after you. Pay attention to whether they drafted RBs early, QBs or WRs late, and then have a casual discussion about last year’s draft to see which picks they regretted making. This conversation should lend some insight as to how they’ll draft in 2010.
7. How to get under competitors’ skin during draft
Almost every draft has “That guy”, the guy whose mindset seems to be more dedicated to irritating the league members than fielding a team from scratch. Don’t be afraid to be “That guy”. The only weapon you can use in a draft that doesn’t cross the line of good taste and physically impede your competitors’ strategy is the written word, but they can come in many different forms. Those of you fantasy football aficionados who moonlight in hacking into computers should refrain from uploading a virus to your competitors’ workstations, as this diabolical strategy is considered poor form.
Some would label this strategy as “bush league”. That said, fantasy football is all about gamesmanship, so don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops for one of the most critical three-hour-stretches of the entire year.
Chat / Video Chat – send your league members website links, articles, or video/Youtube links during your live draft in the draft chat room. The links, articles and video clips can be football or non-football-related. If they’re football-related, then they might get read and succeed in distracting your opponents. If it’s something else (except perhaps porn), your opponents may disregard your correspondence until after the draft.
Email – Find out which of your league mates gets emails to their cellphones and check their phones for emails regularly, then take advantage of this distraction by emailing them with inane questions, quips, quotes and attachments. Generate distractions that will cause your competitors to lose focus.
Telephone Call / Text – I wouldn’t waste too much time talking on the telephone because you may be just as easily distract yourself by the conversation instead of your opponents, or said opponent may simply ignore your call. Sending quick texts can affect your football league opponents’ concentration and hinder them from achieving their drafting objectives.
Note on piece of paper – If you’re sharing the same physical room as your league mates, then go old school by bringing several pieces of paper and a thick marker. After you make your pick, and are not scheduled to make your next selection for several minutes, then you’ll have time to divert your opponents’ attention. Make a series of controversial notes or signs that can range from mocking competitors’ recent picks, to insulting members of their immediate family, to the most non-sequitor nonsense you can possibly conceive.
In any case, this section is devoted to finding ways to push people’s buttons. If you know your league mates well enough, then you should have specific ideas of how to piss off your opponents, and throw them off their game.
IF THIS ISN’T YOUR FIRST DRAFT…
After a year or two of playing fantasy football, you may feel like you’re learning the finer points of the game that separate the rookies from the veterans. Not unlike the mindset of a recent college graduate, you are now grasping how much there is still to learn on an annual basis about the nuances of assessing the talent pool, the revolving door of NFL head coaches and front office executives, and how this turnover affects said talent.
In addition to the NFL’s daily offseason activities, you may realize that you have a lot of learn about the tendencies of the fellow fantasy general managers in your league that you’ll match wits with come draft day.
1. Availability of talent per position
Each preseason, fantasy football experts across the land assess which positions are rich in talent compared to other positions with less depth. Although there are obviously the same number of NFL players from year-to-year in the league (barring expansion, of course), some years produce, say fewer quality fantasy quarterbacks or running backs than others.
Headed into the 2010 preseason, there are actually more startable fantasy QBs than a year ago. As an example, Houston’s Matt Schaub has approached stud status. Before the 2009 season, he was a high-upside pick that was considered a steal in the fifth or sixth round. In 2010, Schaub likely won’t last past the third round.
Brett Favre was a speculative pick in what was supposed to be a run-based offense in Minnesota. Many prognosticators felt that, at this stage of Favre’s storied career, he would simply be a game manager whose primary responsibility would be handing off the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Assuming Favre doesn’t retire since he recently underwent ankle surgery, the 40-year-old provides QB1 upside, something we didn’t really see coming in 2009.
Other fantasy QBs that are new to the draft radar in 2010:
Philadephia’s Kevin Kolb, who will take over under center for the traded Donovan McNabb. Kolb has performed brilliantly during brief stints on the field during his career, and Eagle Nation has been calling for him for years.
Baltimore’s Joe Flacco really stepped up both his play and leadership in 2009, and with the addition of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin, he will certainly get drafted a lot earlier in 2010 than 2009.
Matt Moore, Chad Henne, the aforementioned McNabb, and Jason Campbell all provide upgrades at quarterback for the Panthers, Dolphins, Redskins, and Raiders compared to these teams’ ‘09 starters.
Former first-round picks Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith each took major steps forward towards establishing themselves as fantasy starters, and will command more dialogue as players to target as opposed to being players to settle for.
2009 disappointments Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel are expected to bounce back after a rough first year with their new teams. Cutler will benefit from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s expansion of the playbook, and Cassel has highly-touted rookie wideout Dexter McCluster to add to a somewhat deep receiving corps that includes Dwayne Bowe, a rejuvenated Chris Chambers, and newly-acquired possession threat Jerheme Urban.
Given the changing landscape in fantasy football with regards to quarterbacks, one notices that there are more startable QBs than a year ago. For this reason, you should apply principles of supply and demand to your draft. Since there is a bigger supply of signal callers, you should address other positions with scarcer talent before QB. In other words, wait a round or two to pick your QBs, and grab an elite RB or WR with that earlier pick instead, especially in leagues that only start one quarterback per fantasy team.
2. ADP rankings
Do ADP’s reflected in FF publications correctly address your league’s scoring system?
Before you blindly trust the Average Draft Position Rankings, make sure that the list that you are referencing is designed for the same type of league that you are in. If you are in a “touchdown league”, where the vast majority of points scored is from trips to the end zone, then you shouldn’t use points-per-reception ADP Rankings for your draft. Or, if you are planning for a PPR draft, don’t use a cheat sheet for yardage-heavy leagues, as the player valuations can alter completely (e.g. Matt Forte)
Cross-reference ADP with where you are in draft
During your draft, you’ll see players that you’ve been targeting all preseason, and are hot to snatch that player for your team. Before you click ‘draft player’, take a look at your ADP rankings. If that player’s ADP Ranking is, say, 15-20 points lower than your current draft position, then you might want to wait a round, as there is a decent chance that your guy will be available in the next round.
For example, let’s say you’re a big Bret Favre fan, and that he’s coming back in 2010 to play for the Vikings again. During the fourth round of a 12-team league, you’re tempted to take Favre as your QB1 after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo have been selected. If Favre’s ADP is around, say, 92, and you’re only on the 43rd pick, then you should know that you can probably wait on Favre for a couple rounds. However, if you have to have him, then take him with a seventh-rounder, as Favre theoretically should be available then.
ADP is compiled from averaging out hundreds of drafts from all over the fantasy football industry. The most knowledgeable fantasy pundits essentially voice their opinion in the valuation of the talent via the draft, and ADP is a critical tool in helping you to prepare for your draft.
Remember this equation when thinking in terms of draft valuation: ADP / # of teams in league = round you should draft a player
Don’t let ADP serve as the know-all, end-all…if you’re hot for a particular player, his ADP is a bit lower than where you’re at in your draft, the next player available at his position is a big drop off in talent and upside, and you feel like that person won’t be available next round, then reach a little if you feel you have to, but don’t make a habit of it.
3. Latest injuries/depth chart shifts/holdout news
Stay aware - in today’s age of information, there is no reason we can’t get up-to-the-minute info from dozens of NFL beat writers around the league. If you have an internet connection, you should know exactly who is damaged goods by the time your draft comes around.
4. How will coaching changes affect the fantasy landscape? Mike Martz, new OC in Chicago, Mike Shanahan in Washington, Pete Carroll in Seattle, Chan Gailey in Buffalo,
Martz should breathe life into a Chicago passing game that ranked 17th in the NFL in 2009. This is great news for owners of Jay Cutler in dynasty leagues, as this personnel hire will elevate Cutler’s fantasy stock, and should also benefit wideouts like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and possibly Earl Bennett. When Martz was coaching the St. Louis Rams in the late 1990s, the team, led by QB Kurt Warner, was known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and was arguably the most explosive offense of its time. Unfortunately for tight end Greg Olsen, Martz has a history of having his tight ends stay in to block more than running pass patterns, so I would advise staying away from Olsen this year.
When Martz went to Detroit in 2006 to serve as offensive coordinator and quarterbackss coach, he helped 34-year-old quarterback Jon Kitna reach the 4000-yard plateau, and also launched the once-dormant Lions’ passing game to rank 7th in the NFL in 2006.
Martz didn’t encounter the same type of success in San Francisco when he was hired to serve as the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2008. Equipped with a still-green Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O’Sullivan, the coach faced an uphill battle from a talent perspective before being replaced by Mike Singletary and a ball-control mindset midway through the season.
When Shanahan coached the Broncos from 1995-2008, he was famous for employing a zone-blocking scheme that was popularized by other NFL teams, and for churning out the most unlikely of 1000-yard backs (see: Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson). Washington has three veteran backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Although Portis made a name for himself in Shanahan’s scheme in Denver before getting traded to Washington, he isn’t the same running back with fresh legs as he was seven years ago. For that matter, Parker or L.J. are also shells of their former selves, but Redskin Nation is hoping that the running-back-by-committee, led by the so-called “Mastermind”, produces an effective ground game in the nation’s capital in 2010.
While it’s too soon to assess whether any of the Washington RBs will warrant fantasy consideration, one should expect Shanahan to employ a ground attack to the Redskin offense this season with three former Pro Bowlers all vying for carries.
When the name Pete Carroll is mentioned, the first thought that comes to mind is the high-powered pro-style offense he employed at USC. Having coached a well-oiled scoring machine in New England from 1997-1999, Carroll knows the ins and outs of running a successful offensive scheme at any level.
Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks’ 21st-ranked offense lacks many of the same effective tools that Carroll had in New England over ten years ago. Instead of Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin in their prime, Seattle will trot out 34-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who appears to be in the waning years of his playing career, and a RBBC consisting of Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and an injured Leon Washington (currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list, recovering from an awful compound leg fracture sustained last year).
Expect Carroll to resuscitate the Seahawks’ passing attack in 2010. Wide receiver T. J. Houshmanzadeh should improve on a disappointing first season with Seattle, highly-touted Notre Dame rookie Golden Tate can provide explosiveness at flanker, and talented tight end John Carlson could hopefully find more consistency.
The Buffalo Bills’ 30th-ranked offense in 2009 was so inept that watching them was well, offensive. Even though Buffalo was proactive in improving the team in the previous offseason by signing an over-the-hill WR Terrell Owens (who will not return to the team in 2010), they had been trying to unload embattled RB Marshawn Lynch during a critical time when they should be adding talent.
Chan Gailey is the Bills’ new head coach whose most recent NFL experience was serving as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2008. Gailey was eventually stripped of play-calling duties by head coach Todd Haley in early 2009. Although he led the Cowboys to consecutive playoff runs in 1998-99, Gailey’s name doesn’t share the same cache in fantasy football circles as Martz or Shanahan. I wouldn’t get too excited about any Bills in 2010 except for perhaps RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in PPR leagues, or the Bills’ defense in occasional spot starts at home.
5. Assess your draft order – bookend pick? Middle pick? How will that affect your drafting?
In your first season or two of fantasy football, you probably jumped for joy when the draft lottery resulted that you would have the No. 1 pick, and were outraged if you drew last.
By the time you become a fantasy football veteran, you shouldn’t be too particular about what number pick you have. Most fantasy experts are able to field a great team regardless of where they are positioned in the draft order. However, you need to approach your player selections a bit differently with a bookend pick as opposed to if you had, say, the fifth or sixth pick.
If you have the #1 pick in a serpentine-style draft (1,2,3,4,5,5,4,3,2,1), you’ll have to wait 19-22 picks until your next selection (depending on whether your league has 10 or 12 teams), so you need to stay aware of the remainder of talent levels per position compared to your team’s needs as you flesh out your roster throughout the draft.
For example, if you have the #2 overall pick, and haven’t drafted a RB1 by the end of the second round, then you will likely experience a steep dropoff in available RB1’s as your league competitors stock their teams with the available backs. In other words, if you haven’t taken a RB by the third round, your team will likely already be behind the 8-ball in terms of missing production from a vital position with relatively few available superstars that can flourish on a weekly basis.
You may have seen a draft expert or two categorize the NFL player pool into tiers, or echelons of talent. If you have a bookend pick (first or last in order), no quarterback on your roster yet, and your tier sheet tells you that there is only one top-echelon QB left, then you had better grab that last QB1 before someone else does with one of the next 19-22 picks. If you lag on addressing needs for your roster at the appropriate time, you may be forced to trot out a sub-par fantasy starter like, say, Kyle Orton as your starting signal caller every single week. Even if that available QB1 isn’t the specific QB1 you were targeting, it’s probably in your team’s best interest to take the best player available at that stage of the draft.
Use these aforementioned tiers wisely, color-code them if necessary, and keep them updated in case there’s an injury late in the preseason that affects a player’s ADP.
One more note regarding ADP and bookend picks: If you really want a particular player and don’t want to reach for a guy whose ADP is too low relative to the current round, but you’re also not sure if that player will fall to you in the following round, then go ahead and grab that guy as long as you’re not reaching more than 15-20 points higher than the player’s ADP. If this player fills a legitimate need as previously mentioned, then your team should make the acquisition. If said player’s ADP is more than 20 points higher, then he should theoretically fall to the next round.
6. Your drafting neighbor’s tendencies (favorite team, player, particular philosophies toward drafting)
Based on drafts from previous seasons, does your drafting neighbor tend to draft receivers early? Does your drafting neighbor have a favorite NFL team, and may be inclined to draft one or several players from that team? Does your drafting neighbor tend to go for established Pro Bowlers or future HOFers? Or does he tend to target the trendy, high-upside but unproven diamonds in the rough that are getting love from FF pundits in the preseason? Furthermore, does your neighbor fall in line during runs on a position, or is he more cavalier in his drafting strategy? If three TEs are consecutively drafted in front of him, will he draft a fourth, or stay his own course?
If you’ve played fantasy football with the current crop of players in previous seasons, then you already have data on how your league mates draft. Dig up the previous year’s draft results, and study the drafts of the two teams that draft before and after you. Pay attention to whether they drafted RBs early, QBs or WRs late, and then have a casual discussion about last year’s draft to see which picks they regretted making. This conversation should lend some insight as to how they’ll draft in 2010.
7. How to get under competitors’ skin during draft
Almost every draft has “That guy”, the guy whose mindset seems to be more dedicated to irritating the league members than fielding a team from scratch. Don’t be afraid to be “That guy”. The only weapon you can use in a draft that doesn’t cross the line of good taste and physically impede your competitors’ strategy is the written word, but they can come in many different forms. Those of you fantasy football aficionados who moonlight in hacking into computers should refrain from uploading a virus to your competitors’ workstations, as this diabolical strategy is considered poor form.
Some would label this strategy as “bush league”. That said, fantasy football is all about gamesmanship, so don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops for one of the most critical three-hour-stretches of the entire year.
Chat / Video Chat – send your league members website links, articles, or video/Youtube links during your live draft in the draft chat room. The links, articles and video clips can be football or non-football-related. If they’re football-related, then they might get read and succeed in distracting your opponents. If it’s something else (except perhaps porn), your opponents may disregard your correspondence until after the draft.
Email – Find out which of your league mates gets emails to their cellphones and check their phones for emails regularly, then take advantage of this distraction by emailing them with inane questions, quips, quotes and attachments. Generate distractions that will cause your competitors to lose focus.
Telephone Call / Text – I wouldn’t waste too much time talking on the telephone because you may be just as easily distract yourself by the conversation instead of your opponents, or said opponent may simply ignore your call. Sending quick texts can affect your football league opponents’ concentration and hinder them from achieving their drafting objectives.
Note on piece of paper – If you’re sharing the same physical room as your league mates, then go old school by bringing several pieces of paper and a thick marker. After you make your pick, and are not scheduled to make your next selection for several minutes, then you’ll have time to divert your opponents’ attention. Make a series of controversial notes or signs that can range from mocking competitors’ recent picks, to insulting members of their immediate family, to the most non-sequitor nonsense you can possibly conceive.
In any case, this section is devoted to finding ways to push people’s buttons. If you know your league mates well enough, then you should have specific ideas of how to piss off your opponents, and throw them off their game.
In addition to the NFL’s daily offseason activities, you may realize that you have a lot of learn about the tendencies of the fellow fantasy general managers in your league that you’ll match wits with come draft day.
1. Availability of talent per position
Each preseason, fantasy football experts across the land assess which positions are rich in talent compared to other positions with less depth. Although there are obviously the same number of NFL players from year-to-year in the league (barring expansion, of course), some years produce, say fewer quality fantasy quarterbacks or running backs than others.
Headed into the 2010 preseason, there are actually more startable fantasy QBs than a year ago. As an example, Houston’s Matt Schaub has approached stud status. Before the 2009 season, he was a high-upside pick that was considered a steal in the fifth or sixth round. In 2010, Schaub likely won’t last past the third round.
Brett Favre was a speculative pick in what was supposed to be a run-based offense in Minnesota. Many prognosticators felt that, at this stage of Favre’s storied career, he would simply be a game manager whose primary responsibility would be handing off the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Assuming Favre doesn’t retire since he recently underwent ankle surgery, the 40-year-old provides QB1 upside, something we didn’t really see coming in 2009.
Other fantasy QBs that are new to the draft radar in 2010:
Philadephia’s Kevin Kolb, who will take over under center for the traded Donovan McNabb. Kolb has performed brilliantly during brief stints on the field during his career, and Eagle Nation has been calling for him for years.
Baltimore’s Joe Flacco really stepped up both his play and leadership in 2009, and with the addition of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin, he will certainly get drafted a lot earlier in 2010 than 2009.
Matt Moore, Chad Henne, the aforementioned McNabb, and Jason Campbell all provide upgrades at quarterback for the Panthers, Dolphins, Redskins, and Raiders compared to these teams’ ‘09 starters.
Former first-round picks Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith each took major steps forward towards establishing themselves as fantasy starters, and will command more dialogue as players to target as opposed to being players to settle for.
2009 disappointments Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel are expected to bounce back after a rough first year with their new teams. Cutler will benefit from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s expansion of the playbook, and Cassel has highly-touted rookie wideout Dexter McCluster to add to a somewhat deep receiving corps that includes Dwayne Bowe, a rejuvenated Chris Chambers, and newly-acquired possession threat Jerheme Urban.
Given the changing landscape in fantasy football with regards to quarterbacks, one notices that there are more startable QBs than a year ago. For this reason, you should apply principles of supply and demand to your draft. Since there is a bigger supply of signal callers, you should address other positions with scarcer talent before QB. In other words, wait a round or two to pick your QBs, and grab an elite RB or WR with that earlier pick instead, especially in leagues that only start one quarterback per fantasy team.
2. ADP rankings
Do ADP’s reflected in FF publications correctly address your league’s scoring system?
Before you blindly trust the Average Draft Position Rankings, make sure that the list that you are referencing is designed for the same type of league that you are in. If you are in a “touchdown league”, where the vast majority of points scored is from trips to the end zone, then you shouldn’t use points-per-reception ADP Rankings for your draft. Or, if you are planning for a PPR draft, don’t use a cheat sheet for yardage-heavy leagues, as the player valuations can alter completely (e.g. Matt Forte)
Cross-reference ADP with where you are in draft
During your draft, you’ll see players that you’ve been targeting all preseason, and are hot to snatch that player for your team. Before you click ‘draft player’, take a look at your ADP rankings. If that player’s ADP Ranking is, say, 15-20 points lower than your current draft position, then you might want to wait a round, as there is a decent chance that your guy will be available in the next round.
For example, let’s say you’re a big Bret Favre fan, and that he’s coming back in 2010 to play for the Vikings again. During the fourth round of a 12-team league, you’re tempted to take Favre as your QB1 after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo have been selected. If Favre’s ADP is around, say, 92, and you’re only on the 43rd pick, then you should know that you can probably wait on Favre for a couple rounds. However, if you have to have him, then take him with a seventh-rounder, as Favre theoretically should be available then.
ADP is compiled from averaging out hundreds of drafts from all over the fantasy football industry. The most knowledgeable fantasy pundits essentially voice their opinion in the valuation of the talent via the draft, and ADP is a critical tool in helping you to prepare for your draft.
Remember this equation when thinking in terms of draft valuation: ADP / # of teams in league = round you should draft a player
Don’t let ADP serve as the know-all, end-all…if you’re hot for a particular player, his ADP is a bit lower than where you’re at in your draft, the next player available at his position is a big drop off in talent and upside, and you feel like that person won’t be available next round, then reach a little if you feel you have to, but don’t make a habit of it.
3. Latest injuries/depth chart shifts/holdout news
Stay aware - in today’s age of information, there is no reason we can’t get up-to-the-minute info from dozens of NFL beat writers around the league. If you have an internet connection, you should know exactly who is damaged goods by the time your draft comes around.
4. How will coaching changes affect the fantasy landscape? Mike Martz, new OC in Chicago, Mike Shanahan in Washington, Pete Carroll in Seattle, Chan Gailey in Buffalo,
Martz should breathe life into a Chicago passing game that ranked 17th in the NFL in 2009. This is great news for owners of Jay Cutler in dynasty leagues, as this personnel hire will elevate Cutler’s fantasy stock, and should also benefit wideouts like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and possibly Earl Bennett. When Martz was coaching the St. Louis Rams in the late 1990s, the team, led by QB Kurt Warner, was known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and was arguably the most explosive offense of its time. Unfortunately for tight end Greg Olsen, Martz has a history of having his tight ends stay in to block more than running pass patterns, so I would advise staying away from Olsen this year.
When Martz went to Detroit in 2006 to serve as offensive coordinator and quarterbackss coach, he helped 34-year-old quarterback Jon Kitna reach the 4000-yard plateau, and also launched the once-dormant Lions’ passing game to rank 7th in the NFL in 2006.
Martz didn’t encounter the same type of success in San Francisco when he was hired to serve as the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2008. Equipped with a still-green Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O’Sullivan, the coach faced an uphill battle from a talent perspective before being replaced by Mike Singletary and a ball-control mindset midway through the season.
When Shanahan coached the Broncos from 1995-2008, he was famous for employing a zone-blocking scheme that was popularized by other NFL teams, and for churning out the most unlikely of 1000-yard backs (see: Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson). Washington has three veteran backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Although Portis made a name for himself in Shanahan’s scheme in Denver before getting traded to Washington, he isn’t the same running back with fresh legs as he was seven years ago. For that matter, Parker or L.J. are also shells of their former selves, but Redskin Nation is hoping that the running-back-by-committee, led by the so-called “Mastermind”, produces an effective ground game in the nation’s capital in 2010.
While it’s too soon to assess whether any of the Washington RBs will warrant fantasy consideration, one should expect Shanahan to employ a ground attack to the Redskin offense this season with three former Pro Bowlers all vying for carries.
When the name Pete Carroll is mentioned, the first thought that comes to mind is the high-powered pro-style offense he employed at USC. Having coached a well-oiled scoring machine in New England from 1997-1999, Carroll knows the ins and outs of running a successful offensive scheme at any level.
Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks’ 21st-ranked offense lacks many of the same effective tools that Carroll had in New England over ten years ago. Instead of Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin in their prime, Seattle will trot out 34-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who appears to be in the waning years of his playing career, and a RBBC consisting of Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and an injured Leon Washington (currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list, recovering from an awful compound leg fracture sustained last year).
Expect Carroll to resuscitate the Seahawks’ passing attack in 2010. Wide receiver T. J. Houshmanzadeh should improve on a disappointing first season with Seattle, highly-touted Notre Dame rookie Golden Tate can provide explosiveness at flanker, and talented tight end John Carlson could hopefully find more consistency.
The Buffalo Bills’ 30th-ranked offense in 2009 was so inept that watching them was well, offensive. Even though Buffalo was proactive in improving the team in the previous offseason by signing an over-the-hill WR Terrell Owens (who will not return to the team in 2010), they had been trying to unload embattled RB Marshawn Lynch during a critical time when they should be adding talent.
Chan Gailey is the Bills’ new head coach whose most recent NFL experience was serving as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2008. Gailey was eventually stripped of play-calling duties by head coach Todd Haley in early 2009. Although he led the Cowboys to consecutive playoff runs in 1998-99, Gailey’s name doesn’t share the same cache in fantasy football circles as Martz or Shanahan. I wouldn’t get too excited about any Bills in 2010 except for perhaps RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in PPR leagues, or the Bills’ defense in occasional spot starts at home.
5. Assess your draft order – bookend pick? Middle pick? How will that affect your drafting?
In your first season or two of fantasy football, you probably jumped for joy when the draft lottery resulted that you would have the No. 1 pick, and were outraged if you drew last.
By the time you become a fantasy football veteran, you shouldn’t be too particular about what number pick you have. Most fantasy experts are able to field a great team regardless of where they are positioned in the draft order. However, you need to approach your player selections a bit differently with a bookend pick as opposed to if you had, say, the fifth or sixth pick.
If you have the #1 pick in a serpentine-style draft (1,2,3,4,5,5,4,3,2,1), you’ll have to wait 19-22 picks until your next selection (depending on whether your league has 10 or 12 teams), so you need to stay aware of the remainder of talent levels per position compared to your team’s needs as you flesh out your roster throughout the draft.
For example, if you have the #2 overall pick, and haven’t drafted a RB1 by the end of the second round, then you will likely experience a steep dropoff in available RB1’s as your league competitors stock their teams with the available backs. In other words, if you haven’t taken a RB by the third round, your team will likely already be behind the 8-ball in terms of missing production from a vital position with relatively few available superstars that can flourish on a weekly basis.
You may have seen a draft expert or two categorize the NFL player pool into tiers, or echelons of talent. If you have a bookend pick (first or last in order), no quarterback on your roster yet, and your tier sheet tells you that there is only one top-echelon QB left, then you had better grab that last QB1 before someone else does with one of the next 19-22 picks. If you lag on addressing needs for your roster at the appropriate time, you may be forced to trot out a sub-par fantasy starter like, say, Kyle Orton as your starting signal caller every single week. Even if that available QB1 isn’t the specific QB1 you were targeting, it’s probably in your team’s best interest to take the best player available at that stage of the draft.
Use these aforementioned tiers wisely, color-code them if necessary, and keep them updated in case there’s an injury late in the preseason that affects a player’s ADP.
One more note regarding ADP and bookend picks: If you really want a particular player and don’t want to reach for a guy whose ADP is too low relative to the current round, but you’re also not sure if that player will fall to you in the following round, then go ahead and grab that guy as long as you’re not reaching more than 15-20 points higher than the player’s ADP. If this player fills a legitimate need as previously mentioned, then your team should make the acquisition. If said player’s ADP is more than 20 points higher, then he should theoretically fall to the next round.
6. Your drafting neighbor’s tendencies (favorite team, player, particular philosophies toward drafting)
Based on drafts from previous seasons, does your drafting neighbor tend to draft receivers early? Does your drafting neighbor have a favorite NFL team, and may be inclined to draft one or several players from that team? Does your drafting neighbor tend to go for established Pro Bowlers or future HOFers? Or does he tend to target the trendy, high-upside but unproven diamonds in the rough that are getting love from FF pundits in the preseason? Furthermore, does your neighbor fall in line during runs on a position, or is he more cavalier in his drafting strategy? If three TEs are consecutively drafted in front of him, will he draft a fourth, or stay his own course?
If you’ve played fantasy football with the current crop of players in previous seasons, then you already have data on how your league mates draft. Dig up the previous year’s draft results, and study the drafts of the two teams that draft before and after you. Pay attention to whether they drafted RBs early, QBs or WRs late, and then have a casual discussion about last year’s draft to see which picks they regretted making. This conversation should lend some insight as to how they’ll draft in 2010.
7. How to get under competitors’ skin during draft
Almost every draft has “That guy”, the guy whose mindset seems to be more dedicated to irritating the league members than fielding a team from scratch. Don’t be afraid to be “That guy”. The only weapon you can use in a draft that doesn’t cross the line of good taste and physically impede your competitors’ strategy is the written word, but they can come in many different forms. Those of you fantasy football aficionados who moonlight in hacking into computers should refrain from uploading a virus to your competitors’ workstations, as this diabolical strategy is considered poor form.
Some would label this strategy as “bush league”. That said, fantasy football is all about gamesmanship, so don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops for one of the most critical three-hour-stretches of the entire year.
Chat / Video Chat – send your league members website links, articles, or video/Youtube links during your live draft in the draft chat room. The links, articles and video clips can be football or non-football-related. If they’re football-related, then they might get read and succeed in distracting your opponents. If it’s something else (except perhaps porn), your opponents may disregard your correspondence until after the draft.
Email – Find out which of your league mates gets emails to their cellphones and check their phones for emails regularly, then take advantage of this distraction by emailing them with inane questions, quips, quotes and attachments. Generate distractions that will cause your competitors to lose focus.
Telephone Call / Text – I wouldn’t waste too much time talking on the telephone because you may be just as easily distract yourself by the conversation instead of your opponents, or said opponent may simply ignore your call. Sending quick texts can affect your football league opponents’ concentration and hinder them from achieving their drafting objectives.
Note on piece of paper – If you’re sharing the same physical room as your league mates, then go old school by bringing several pieces of paper and a thick marker. After you make your pick, and are not scheduled to make your next selection for several minutes, then you’ll have time to divert your opponents’ attention. Make a series of controversial notes or signs that can range from mocking competitors’ recent picks, to insulting members of their immediate family, to the most non-sequitor nonsense you can possibly conceive.
In any case, this section is devoted to finding ways to push people’s buttons. If you know your league mates well enough, then you should have specific ideas of how to piss off your opponents, and throw them off their game.
Friday, June 18, 2010
READ THIS BEFORE YOUR FIRST FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT…
For those about to draft, we salute you.
If this is your inaugural season of fantasy football, welcome to the club. Unfortunately, the chances are that your inexperience has put you a bit behind the competition in terms of experience within your league, but I have good news for you: this beloved sport, try as we might to pore over stats to essentially predict the future and make the playoffs, is mostly luck.
That said, this guide should assist you in effectively preparing for your draft by teaching you the correct ways to assess talent, not fall prey to common rookie mistakes, and stock your team with the necessary depth so that even when your squad is beset by injuries and bye weeks, you’ll be able to persevere without having to mercilessly pilfer the waiver wire.
1. TARGET SCORERS AND PASS-CATCHING RBs
In order for your fantasy team to accrue stats, your players need to be in the huddle and receive necessary opportunities to score touchdowns, yards, and receptions (receptions are especially important in point-per-reception leagues, or PPR leagues).
Most fantasy football leagues place a statistical premium on touchdowns, typically the most climactic scoring event in the game. You need to find skill players who are not only slated to play as much as possible on their respective teams, you need to specifically target the guys who score the most TDs. Anyone can check last year’s touchdown leaders, and have a general idea of who gets the rock into the end zone.
However, in recent years, a plethora of statistical information has been made available that provides research on which players received most opportunities to score inside the red zone (20-yard line), as well as depth chart battles on each team’s training camp, and information on which players have impressed their respective coaching staff to the point where the starter in 2010 is different from whoever was first-string at the beginning of 2009. Some examples include Arizona RB Beanie Wells, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles, and Dallas WR Miles Austin. Each of these players have significantly more value than they did a year ago due to their boost in playing time (in Charles’ situation, his primary competition for reps in 2009 is no longer on the team), and also for their “nose for the end zone.”
During training camp, look to see which players are impressing in camp, as well as which incumbent starters are disappointing their coaches with injuries, contract holdouts, an inability to grasp the offensive philosophy, or simply lackluster play. Whoever stands to gain from a starter’s missed playing time should be someone you at least place on your radar, if not target.
If you're in a PPR league, you should look for running backs that have soft hands, and that registered at least 40-45 receptions last season. Although receptions typically count for only one point in most leagues, these catches can easily add up, and turn an ostensibly underachieving RB into a fantasy commodity. Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who averaged 60 catches each of the last two years in spite of gradually decreasing playing time, is a prime example of this. An extra 60 receptions typically translates to the fantasy equivalent of 10-12 touchdowns. Even if you're not in a PPR league, the receiving yards and TDs that RBs accumulate will add to their value, regardless of whether receptions count or not.
2. AGE
Football is a unique sport in that the shelf life for players is far less than other sports like baseball and hockey. Within football are different age ranges of effectiveness per position. For example, a 34-year-old placekicker or quarterback is much more effective at that stage in his career than a 34-year-old running back or wide receiver. Below is a list of different position requirements for fantasy football, followed by the average age range of effectiveness. Obviously, there are occasional exceptions in wide receivers who play well into their thirties, but you’d be better off following these age guidelines:
QUARTERBACK: (24-35) – Typically, quarterbacks need two to three years to get properly acclimated to the speed, intensity, and complex schemes of the NFL, and even highly-coveted first-round picks experience a learning curve. 2009 was no exception with rookie QBs Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez taking their lumps in their first season. If you're thinking of drafting 2010 No. 1 NFL draft pick Sam Bradford as your QB1, think again.
Drafting rookie quarterbacks is seldom advised, as it’s the most difficult position to grasp at the highest level. Most rookies are trying so hard not to make a mistake and let their team down, that statistical performance takes a backseat to more pressing issues like not getting hurt, not turning the ball over, continuing to learn the offense, and leading the team.
Once a QB reaches his second or third year as a starter, his coaching staff has likely gained substantial confidence in his abilities, and opens up the offense for more explosive formations (like four-and five-wideouts) and deep passing.
On the other end of the spectrum, most quarterbacks have typically taken such a beating over the course of their career, that by the time they hit their mid-30s (like 2009 example Kurt Warner), their constitution erodes to a point where they’re one blindsided sack or pancake block from retirement.
Of course, 40-year-old Brett Favre continues to buck all trends, but quarterbacks like Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck become more injury-prone and less athletically gifted as the enter their age-35 season.
RUNNING BACK: (21-29)
No position in fantasy football experiences rookie success as much as running back. Their fresh legs are welcomed into the league, only to be pulverized by defenders dozens of times per game. Even as running-backs-by-committee continue to permeate the league, an inescapable truth of football is that a RB who has been getting 200+ carries for 7-8 years has likely lost significant tread from his proverbial tires, and doesn’t carry the same explosiveness in his early 30s as he did in his early 20s.
Even though running back is an extremely important position, rookies rely on their instincts and raw athletic ability to gain tough yards. Unlike young quarterbacks who need to learn their team’s entire offense, how to read NFL defenses, each of their receivers’ routes, all while not getting killed or benched, running backs can simply focus on hitting the correct hole with the ball, catching the occasional screen pass, and picking up blitzers.
In short, young RBs have a lot less on their plate than young QBs, and tend to flourish at an earlier age because of their fresh legs. Conversely, QBs take longer to learn their position, but can play well into their 30s while retaining most of their athletic abilities.
In 2009, we witnessed an expectedly rapid decline from 30-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson as the Chargers RB1 due to his huge NFL workload (only one season with just under 300 carries) that began back in 2001. Although his owners from previous seasons adored him for his past production, there is no way that LT can regain the burst from his first years in the NFL, even if he has an elite Jets offensive line opening holes for him in 2010.
Strictly based on age, another Pro Bowler from the past to avoid is 30-year-old Brian Westbrook. Although Westbrook was a stud in the fantasy football landscape as an Eagle only two years ago, his newfound propensity for concussions coupled with his tired legs make him a far less attractive option moving forward.
WIDE RECEIVER (23-33)
Wide receiver is a bit trickier of a position than running back when determining a player’s maturity level. Once every few years, players like Terry Glenn, Randy Moss, and Eddie Royal take the league by storm in their inaugural season, but the vast majority of young wideouts take a year or two to get adjusted to the NFL level.
As far as your draft goes, you should generally stay away from rookie receivers, as the transition from college to the NFL is rarely seamless.
On the other end of the age spectrum for wideouts, 33 is about the age you should expect their talent level to taper off.
Although exceptional players like Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Isaac Bruce defied conventional logic by excelling at this extremely competitive position well into their 30s, these highly-disciplined athletes provide the exception more than the norm.
Note that Ward and the recently-retired Bruce are/were considered possession receivers, and the bread-and-butter of their game is catching short-to-medium passes, not running fly patterns. On the other hand, Joey Galloway and Torry Holt, two aging wideouts whose ability to run streaks and burn defensive backs are a shadow of ten years ago, are two examples of players to avoid in spite of their name value.
In short, possession receivers can play longer careers than “burner”-type wideouts.
TIGHT END (23-33)
Typically, a tight end's primary responsibility to his NFL team is to block first, then catch passes, which is quite the contrary to your fantasy team. This priority shift helps to explain why tight ends are, on the whole, not as valuable as RBs and WRs. Although NFL tight ends often shine against vanilla college defenses, these same athletes usually require at least a year to properly adjust to complex blocking schemes in the NFL, and prove they can pick up blitzing linebackers and defensive backs.
While physical specimens like Tony Gonzalez continue to boggle the mind as to the longevity of his prime, most TEs wear down from years in the trenches by age 32.
Except for Gonzalez, stick with non-rookie tight ends in their 20s.
KICKER (23-45)
As you might expect, most of the rules for the rest of the fantasy football talent pool don’t really apply to kickers. One aspect of that maxim is in terms of age, which typically translates to experience and mental fortitude in high-pressure situations. Of course, there are exceptions like the Saints’ Garrett Hartley, who took over for then-45-year old John Carney in 2009. At the time the torch was passed between the kickers last season, Carney could still nail field goals, although his range was limited compared to when he was a Charger ten years ago. By the time Hartley took over kicking duties for the high-flying Saints, he was instantly a fantasy commodity given that he has more scoring chances than, say, the Browns' kicker. But Hartley’s abilities alone don’t necessarily make him a good fantasy kicker, the team he plays for is they key to his value. This concept segues into my next installment in preparing for a draft: schemes.
3. SCHEME
As you know, many NFL teams have high-powered offenses that churn out points on a consistent basis. One of my all-time favorite schemes was the Run N’ Shoot that the Houston Oilers employed in the early 1990s. The Run N’ Shoot was a four-wide, spread offense that turned quarterback Warren Moon into a fantasy god, gave each of the starting four Houston receivers legitimate degrees of fantasy relevance, and still left enough production for the running game.
While Houston lost the Oilers to Tennessee years ago, the city still has a high-powered offense to call its own in the Texans. QB Matt Schaub leads this well-oiled passing machine, as he has a multitude of weapons in Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels at his disposal. Without the safety net of an effective running game (the Texans’ lead rusher in 2009 was Steve Slaton, who amassed 437 yards for a putrid 3.3 yards-per-carry average), Schaub and Texans were forced to throw early and often, regardless of the score. Based on this logic, you’d be better off drafting the Texans’ or Saints’ second receiver before you draft, say, Buffalo’s WR1.
You should target players on teams that score lots of points, because points on the scoreboard usually translate to fantasy points. If you own Kansas City QB Matt Cassel, and all you know is that the Chiefs lost 31-6, you can bet that Cassel had a crappy fantasy day.
On the other hand, you want running backs that play on teams that emphasize the run in their offense. Teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Titans were atop the league in team carries in 2009, and this statistic serves as a realistic benchmark of how the offense will likely be divvied up this season.
4. TIMESHARE SITUATION
There are two schools of thought regarding competition for a starting job. On one hand, a starter with no competition for a job might get settled into a complacent environment, and a lack of motivation could reflect in his overall performance as the season progresses. Of course, this starter would receive the vast majority of touches or looks compared to his backup, so there is a great deal of solace in taking a player whose job is not in jeopardy, and won’t be riding the pine too often.
On the other hand, nothing is more frustrating than drafting a running back who turns out to be nothing more than a cog in a running-back-by-committee, which has become an emerging trend in the NFL in the last few years in an effort to keep backs healthy.
Sometimes, a RBBC can yield multiple fantasy threats, as had been evidenced during the Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew years in Jacksonville, or perhaps the current situation in Dallas that features three talented running backs in Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones.
I wouldn’t use a top-three pick on any of the Dallas RBs in light of the crowded backfield, but given the rampant injuries that hits each NFL team, there will probably be enough touches in the Cowboys’ explosive offense to get Barber, Choice and Jones all involved at some point in the 16-game season. Regardless, a RBBC not only keeps running backs motivated as there is constantly someone dipping into their carries, but it also keeps your RB healthy in the long run.
An NFL team not having to rely on one back to carry the ball 30 times means that while you’ll be disappointed that your RB didn’t get all the carries in Week 2, there is a greater likelihood he’ll be healthier come fantasy playoff time in Week 14 if his workload is limited to 15-20 carries each game instead of 25-30. Rams RB Steven Jackson, who averaged almost 22 carries per game through Week 15, betrayed his owners by sitting out the all-important Week 16, most leagues' fantasy Super Bowl. Had the Rams not pounded Jackson and gave some of his carries to a backup, perhaps Jackson wouldn't have had to sit out Week 16.
When it comes to quarterbacks, you only want to target starting signal callers who receive virtually all the snaps for their team, save for a small handful of trick plays. As an example, I would avoid Cleveland’s murky QB situation in 2010 as Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Josh Cribbs are all expected to get significant time under center in various packages, making none of them attractive fantasy options. As the old saying goes in football, “If you have two starting QBs on your team, you really have zero.”
5. INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS: STAY AWAY, OR VALUE PICK?
Injuries are an inescapable part of the brutal sport of football. Although it’s usually better to stay away from drafting injured players before the season starts, you might be able to occasionally find value in a quality player afflicted with an injury that every other team in your league is afraid to take a chance on. Typically, you’ll want to simply avoid injured players altogether, but once in a while, an opportunity falls in your lap during a draft. Here are the key body parts that you should check for injury at each position that should raise a red flag about how likely that player is to contribute on the field.
QB – throwing arm, shoulder, elbow, wrist, neck, knee, eye, ribs, head (concussion)
RB – knee, ankle, neck, foot, toe, hand, calf, ribs, hamstring, head (concussion)
WR – knee, ankle, foot, neck, toe, hand, finger, calf, ribs, hamstring, hip, head (concussion)
TE – knee, ankle, foot, toe, neck, hand, finger, chest, ribs, hamstring, hip, head (concussion)
K – leg, hamstring, calf, hip, toe, foot (pretty much anything below the waist)
The aforementioned list of injuries pertains to body parts critical to playing football. If a top-tier receiver is still undrafted in the sixth round because he’ll miss the first couple games due to a sprained elbow, then don’t be afraid to draft him, as his elbow will likely heal in time, and won’t affect his route running or catching abilities once he’s healthy.
If a player is on the dreaded Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP), this means that player, per NFL mandate, cannot play before Week 6. Typically, players on the PUP list weren’t healthy enough to practice during training camp, and will take longer to get settled within the team’s depth chart than if that player simply came back from a routine injury. Except for rare circumstances, you should simply avoid drafting anyone who spent Weeks 1-6 on the PUP list.
Suspensions also tend to get players buried on draft day cheat sheets. Just because Jets WR Santonio Holmes is scheduled for a four-game suspension doesn’t mean he can’t be a fantasy contributor once he is eligible to return in Week 5. At least with suspensions, players simply sit there and stew, motivated to get out of the coach’s doghouse and back onto the field as opposed to sitting in the trainer’s room, rehabbing a troublesome injury.
If you’ve got the available bench space, don’t be afraid to take a chance on a high-upside guy like Holmes, or even Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who would be drafted a round or two earlier were he not being punished by the NFL for past misdeeds.
6. NFL SCHEDULE
There are a few things to keep in mind when factoring the NFL Regular Season Schedule into whom you draft for your team. First, you should assess which divisions are stronger than others. Based on the 2009 regular season standings, the AFC South garnered 38 wins, which is more than any other division. Meanwhile, the AFC West only won 30 total games, making it an inferior division in 2009 than the former.
Of course, the talent levels within the division fluctuate from year to year, but not drastically. Whoever was awesome in 2009 won’t be horrible in 2010, and vice versa. The NFC East is consistently one of the strongest divisions while the NFC West is considered cupcake by comparison.
If you draft players within the lackluster NFC West, that means that player gets six intra-division games against teams that are traditionally soft on defense like the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks. However, if you draft a player on the Redskins, you can look forward to two daunting games against the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys each year.
Another thing to bear in mind regarding the regular season schedule when drafting your team is each team’s bye week. Some people don’t mind having all their players sitting out the same week, as it’s easier to simply write off one bad week as a loss, and return to almost full strength with a full roster intact each other week.
(Most) Others like to stagger their players’ bye weeks so that their roster has enough depth from week to week, and they’re not forced to go scavenging the waiver wire for a WR4 when they have three wideouts all on bye at once. Either strategy can work for you or against you, but I typically prefer to draft players whose bye weeks stagger, as it provides greater overall peace of mind.
The last thing to take into account when determining which players have a favorable fantasy postseason schedule, which are Weeks 14-16. Even though you’re looking four months into the future, this observation could play a critical role down the stretch should your team reach the fantasy playoffs.
If you’re on the fence about two prospective players to draft, look at their Week 14-16 opponents. For example, after glancing at the 2010 schedule, I see Tampa Bay is scheduled to play @ Washington, and then host Detroit and Seattle the following weeks. Barring a huge turnaround from the Redskins’, Lions’ or Seahawks’ defense in 2010, the Buccaneers have what can be considered a favorable fantasy playoff schedule.
Make no mistake, I’m not telling you to run out and draft the entire Buccaneers’ lackluster offense, but fantasy playoff scheduling is simply another criterion to keep in the back of your mind when you’re forced to make tough decisions during your draft.
If this is your inaugural season of fantasy football, welcome to the club. Unfortunately, the chances are that your inexperience has put you a bit behind the competition in terms of experience within your league, but I have good news for you: this beloved sport, try as we might to pore over stats to essentially predict the future and make the playoffs, is mostly luck.
That said, this guide should assist you in effectively preparing for your draft by teaching you the correct ways to assess talent, not fall prey to common rookie mistakes, and stock your team with the necessary depth so that even when your squad is beset by injuries and bye weeks, you’ll be able to persevere without having to mercilessly pilfer the waiver wire.
1. TARGET SCORERS AND PASS-CATCHING RBs
In order for your fantasy team to accrue stats, your players need to be in the huddle and receive necessary opportunities to score touchdowns, yards, and receptions (receptions are especially important in point-per-reception leagues, or PPR leagues).
Most fantasy football leagues place a statistical premium on touchdowns, typically the most climactic scoring event in the game. You need to find skill players who are not only slated to play as much as possible on their respective teams, you need to specifically target the guys who score the most TDs. Anyone can check last year’s touchdown leaders, and have a general idea of who gets the rock into the end zone.
However, in recent years, a plethora of statistical information has been made available that provides research on which players received most opportunities to score inside the red zone (20-yard line), as well as depth chart battles on each team’s training camp, and information on which players have impressed their respective coaching staff to the point where the starter in 2010 is different from whoever was first-string at the beginning of 2009. Some examples include Arizona RB Beanie Wells, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles, and Dallas WR Miles Austin. Each of these players have significantly more value than they did a year ago due to their boost in playing time (in Charles’ situation, his primary competition for reps in 2009 is no longer on the team), and also for their “nose for the end zone.”
During training camp, look to see which players are impressing in camp, as well as which incumbent starters are disappointing their coaches with injuries, contract holdouts, an inability to grasp the offensive philosophy, or simply lackluster play. Whoever stands to gain from a starter’s missed playing time should be someone you at least place on your radar, if not target.
If you're in a PPR league, you should look for running backs that have soft hands, and that registered at least 40-45 receptions last season. Although receptions typically count for only one point in most leagues, these catches can easily add up, and turn an ostensibly underachieving RB into a fantasy commodity. Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who averaged 60 catches each of the last two years in spite of gradually decreasing playing time, is a prime example of this. An extra 60 receptions typically translates to the fantasy equivalent of 10-12 touchdowns. Even if you're not in a PPR league, the receiving yards and TDs that RBs accumulate will add to their value, regardless of whether receptions count or not.
2. AGE
Football is a unique sport in that the shelf life for players is far less than other sports like baseball and hockey. Within football are different age ranges of effectiveness per position. For example, a 34-year-old placekicker or quarterback is much more effective at that stage in his career than a 34-year-old running back or wide receiver. Below is a list of different position requirements for fantasy football, followed by the average age range of effectiveness. Obviously, there are occasional exceptions in wide receivers who play well into their thirties, but you’d be better off following these age guidelines:
QUARTERBACK: (24-35) – Typically, quarterbacks need two to three years to get properly acclimated to the speed, intensity, and complex schemes of the NFL, and even highly-coveted first-round picks experience a learning curve. 2009 was no exception with rookie QBs Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez taking their lumps in their first season. If you're thinking of drafting 2010 No. 1 NFL draft pick Sam Bradford as your QB1, think again.
Drafting rookie quarterbacks is seldom advised, as it’s the most difficult position to grasp at the highest level. Most rookies are trying so hard not to make a mistake and let their team down, that statistical performance takes a backseat to more pressing issues like not getting hurt, not turning the ball over, continuing to learn the offense, and leading the team.
Once a QB reaches his second or third year as a starter, his coaching staff has likely gained substantial confidence in his abilities, and opens up the offense for more explosive formations (like four-and five-wideouts) and deep passing.
On the other end of the spectrum, most quarterbacks have typically taken such a beating over the course of their career, that by the time they hit their mid-30s (like 2009 example Kurt Warner), their constitution erodes to a point where they’re one blindsided sack or pancake block from retirement.
Of course, 40-year-old Brett Favre continues to buck all trends, but quarterbacks like Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck become more injury-prone and less athletically gifted as the enter their age-35 season.
RUNNING BACK: (21-29)
No position in fantasy football experiences rookie success as much as running back. Their fresh legs are welcomed into the league, only to be pulverized by defenders dozens of times per game. Even as running-backs-by-committee continue to permeate the league, an inescapable truth of football is that a RB who has been getting 200+ carries for 7-8 years has likely lost significant tread from his proverbial tires, and doesn’t carry the same explosiveness in his early 30s as he did in his early 20s.
Even though running back is an extremely important position, rookies rely on their instincts and raw athletic ability to gain tough yards. Unlike young quarterbacks who need to learn their team’s entire offense, how to read NFL defenses, each of their receivers’ routes, all while not getting killed or benched, running backs can simply focus on hitting the correct hole with the ball, catching the occasional screen pass, and picking up blitzers.
In short, young RBs have a lot less on their plate than young QBs, and tend to flourish at an earlier age because of their fresh legs. Conversely, QBs take longer to learn their position, but can play well into their 30s while retaining most of their athletic abilities.
In 2009, we witnessed an expectedly rapid decline from 30-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson as the Chargers RB1 due to his huge NFL workload (only one season with just under 300 carries) that began back in 2001. Although his owners from previous seasons adored him for his past production, there is no way that LT can regain the burst from his first years in the NFL, even if he has an elite Jets offensive line opening holes for him in 2010.
Strictly based on age, another Pro Bowler from the past to avoid is 30-year-old Brian Westbrook. Although Westbrook was a stud in the fantasy football landscape as an Eagle only two years ago, his newfound propensity for concussions coupled with his tired legs make him a far less attractive option moving forward.
WIDE RECEIVER (23-33)
Wide receiver is a bit trickier of a position than running back when determining a player’s maturity level. Once every few years, players like Terry Glenn, Randy Moss, and Eddie Royal take the league by storm in their inaugural season, but the vast majority of young wideouts take a year or two to get adjusted to the NFL level.
As far as your draft goes, you should generally stay away from rookie receivers, as the transition from college to the NFL is rarely seamless.
On the other end of the age spectrum for wideouts, 33 is about the age you should expect their talent level to taper off.
Although exceptional players like Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Isaac Bruce defied conventional logic by excelling at this extremely competitive position well into their 30s, these highly-disciplined athletes provide the exception more than the norm.
Note that Ward and the recently-retired Bruce are/were considered possession receivers, and the bread-and-butter of their game is catching short-to-medium passes, not running fly patterns. On the other hand, Joey Galloway and Torry Holt, two aging wideouts whose ability to run streaks and burn defensive backs are a shadow of ten years ago, are two examples of players to avoid in spite of their name value.
In short, possession receivers can play longer careers than “burner”-type wideouts.
TIGHT END (23-33)
Typically, a tight end's primary responsibility to his NFL team is to block first, then catch passes, which is quite the contrary to your fantasy team. This priority shift helps to explain why tight ends are, on the whole, not as valuable as RBs and WRs. Although NFL tight ends often shine against vanilla college defenses, these same athletes usually require at least a year to properly adjust to complex blocking schemes in the NFL, and prove they can pick up blitzing linebackers and defensive backs.
While physical specimens like Tony Gonzalez continue to boggle the mind as to the longevity of his prime, most TEs wear down from years in the trenches by age 32.
Except for Gonzalez, stick with non-rookie tight ends in their 20s.
KICKER (23-45)
As you might expect, most of the rules for the rest of the fantasy football talent pool don’t really apply to kickers. One aspect of that maxim is in terms of age, which typically translates to experience and mental fortitude in high-pressure situations. Of course, there are exceptions like the Saints’ Garrett Hartley, who took over for then-45-year old John Carney in 2009. At the time the torch was passed between the kickers last season, Carney could still nail field goals, although his range was limited compared to when he was a Charger ten years ago. By the time Hartley took over kicking duties for the high-flying Saints, he was instantly a fantasy commodity given that he has more scoring chances than, say, the Browns' kicker. But Hartley’s abilities alone don’t necessarily make him a good fantasy kicker, the team he plays for is they key to his value. This concept segues into my next installment in preparing for a draft: schemes.
3. SCHEME
As you know, many NFL teams have high-powered offenses that churn out points on a consistent basis. One of my all-time favorite schemes was the Run N’ Shoot that the Houston Oilers employed in the early 1990s. The Run N’ Shoot was a four-wide, spread offense that turned quarterback Warren Moon into a fantasy god, gave each of the starting four Houston receivers legitimate degrees of fantasy relevance, and still left enough production for the running game.
While Houston lost the Oilers to Tennessee years ago, the city still has a high-powered offense to call its own in the Texans. QB Matt Schaub leads this well-oiled passing machine, as he has a multitude of weapons in Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels at his disposal. Without the safety net of an effective running game (the Texans’ lead rusher in 2009 was Steve Slaton, who amassed 437 yards for a putrid 3.3 yards-per-carry average), Schaub and Texans were forced to throw early and often, regardless of the score. Based on this logic, you’d be better off drafting the Texans’ or Saints’ second receiver before you draft, say, Buffalo’s WR1.
You should target players on teams that score lots of points, because points on the scoreboard usually translate to fantasy points. If you own Kansas City QB Matt Cassel, and all you know is that the Chiefs lost 31-6, you can bet that Cassel had a crappy fantasy day.
On the other hand, you want running backs that play on teams that emphasize the run in their offense. Teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Titans were atop the league in team carries in 2009, and this statistic serves as a realistic benchmark of how the offense will likely be divvied up this season.
4. TIMESHARE SITUATION
There are two schools of thought regarding competition for a starting job. On one hand, a starter with no competition for a job might get settled into a complacent environment, and a lack of motivation could reflect in his overall performance as the season progresses. Of course, this starter would receive the vast majority of touches or looks compared to his backup, so there is a great deal of solace in taking a player whose job is not in jeopardy, and won’t be riding the pine too often.
On the other hand, nothing is more frustrating than drafting a running back who turns out to be nothing more than a cog in a running-back-by-committee, which has become an emerging trend in the NFL in the last few years in an effort to keep backs healthy.
Sometimes, a RBBC can yield multiple fantasy threats, as had been evidenced during the Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew years in Jacksonville, or perhaps the current situation in Dallas that features three talented running backs in Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones.
I wouldn’t use a top-three pick on any of the Dallas RBs in light of the crowded backfield, but given the rampant injuries that hits each NFL team, there will probably be enough touches in the Cowboys’ explosive offense to get Barber, Choice and Jones all involved at some point in the 16-game season. Regardless, a RBBC not only keeps running backs motivated as there is constantly someone dipping into their carries, but it also keeps your RB healthy in the long run.
An NFL team not having to rely on one back to carry the ball 30 times means that while you’ll be disappointed that your RB didn’t get all the carries in Week 2, there is a greater likelihood he’ll be healthier come fantasy playoff time in Week 14 if his workload is limited to 15-20 carries each game instead of 25-30. Rams RB Steven Jackson, who averaged almost 22 carries per game through Week 15, betrayed his owners by sitting out the all-important Week 16, most leagues' fantasy Super Bowl. Had the Rams not pounded Jackson and gave some of his carries to a backup, perhaps Jackson wouldn't have had to sit out Week 16.
When it comes to quarterbacks, you only want to target starting signal callers who receive virtually all the snaps for their team, save for a small handful of trick plays. As an example, I would avoid Cleveland’s murky QB situation in 2010 as Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Josh Cribbs are all expected to get significant time under center in various packages, making none of them attractive fantasy options. As the old saying goes in football, “If you have two starting QBs on your team, you really have zero.”
5. INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS: STAY AWAY, OR VALUE PICK?
Injuries are an inescapable part of the brutal sport of football. Although it’s usually better to stay away from drafting injured players before the season starts, you might be able to occasionally find value in a quality player afflicted with an injury that every other team in your league is afraid to take a chance on. Typically, you’ll want to simply avoid injured players altogether, but once in a while, an opportunity falls in your lap during a draft. Here are the key body parts that you should check for injury at each position that should raise a red flag about how likely that player is to contribute on the field.
QB – throwing arm, shoulder, elbow, wrist, neck, knee, eye, ribs, head (concussion)
RB – knee, ankle, neck, foot, toe, hand, calf, ribs, hamstring, head (concussion)
WR – knee, ankle, foot, neck, toe, hand, finger, calf, ribs, hamstring, hip, head (concussion)
TE – knee, ankle, foot, toe, neck, hand, finger, chest, ribs, hamstring, hip, head (concussion)
K – leg, hamstring, calf, hip, toe, foot (pretty much anything below the waist)
The aforementioned list of injuries pertains to body parts critical to playing football. If a top-tier receiver is still undrafted in the sixth round because he’ll miss the first couple games due to a sprained elbow, then don’t be afraid to draft him, as his elbow will likely heal in time, and won’t affect his route running or catching abilities once he’s healthy.
If a player is on the dreaded Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP), this means that player, per NFL mandate, cannot play before Week 6. Typically, players on the PUP list weren’t healthy enough to practice during training camp, and will take longer to get settled within the team’s depth chart than if that player simply came back from a routine injury. Except for rare circumstances, you should simply avoid drafting anyone who spent Weeks 1-6 on the PUP list.
Suspensions also tend to get players buried on draft day cheat sheets. Just because Jets WR Santonio Holmes is scheduled for a four-game suspension doesn’t mean he can’t be a fantasy contributor once he is eligible to return in Week 5. At least with suspensions, players simply sit there and stew, motivated to get out of the coach’s doghouse and back onto the field as opposed to sitting in the trainer’s room, rehabbing a troublesome injury.
If you’ve got the available bench space, don’t be afraid to take a chance on a high-upside guy like Holmes, or even Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who would be drafted a round or two earlier were he not being punished by the NFL for past misdeeds.
6. NFL SCHEDULE
There are a few things to keep in mind when factoring the NFL Regular Season Schedule into whom you draft for your team. First, you should assess which divisions are stronger than others. Based on the 2009 regular season standings, the AFC South garnered 38 wins, which is more than any other division. Meanwhile, the AFC West only won 30 total games, making it an inferior division in 2009 than the former.
Of course, the talent levels within the division fluctuate from year to year, but not drastically. Whoever was awesome in 2009 won’t be horrible in 2010, and vice versa. The NFC East is consistently one of the strongest divisions while the NFC West is considered cupcake by comparison.
If you draft players within the lackluster NFC West, that means that player gets six intra-division games against teams that are traditionally soft on defense like the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks. However, if you draft a player on the Redskins, you can look forward to two daunting games against the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys each year.
Another thing to bear in mind regarding the regular season schedule when drafting your team is each team’s bye week. Some people don’t mind having all their players sitting out the same week, as it’s easier to simply write off one bad week as a loss, and return to almost full strength with a full roster intact each other week.
(Most) Others like to stagger their players’ bye weeks so that their roster has enough depth from week to week, and they’re not forced to go scavenging the waiver wire for a WR4 when they have three wideouts all on bye at once. Either strategy can work for you or against you, but I typically prefer to draft players whose bye weeks stagger, as it provides greater overall peace of mind.
The last thing to take into account when determining which players have a favorable fantasy postseason schedule, which are Weeks 14-16. Even though you’re looking four months into the future, this observation could play a critical role down the stretch should your team reach the fantasy playoffs.
If you’re on the fence about two prospective players to draft, look at their Week 14-16 opponents. For example, after glancing at the 2010 schedule, I see Tampa Bay is scheduled to play @ Washington, and then host Detroit and Seattle the following weeks. Barring a huge turnaround from the Redskins’, Lions’ or Seahawks’ defense in 2010, the Buccaneers have what can be considered a favorable fantasy playoff schedule.
Make no mistake, I’m not telling you to run out and draft the entire Buccaneers’ lackluster offense, but fantasy playoff scheduling is simply another criterion to keep in the back of your mind when you’re forced to make tough decisions during your draft.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
YOU WILL SURVIVE…AFTER READING THIS
Survivor Leagues present a stark contrast to traditional fantasy football. When you’re in a survivor league, you take a step back from rooting for individual players from different teams to accrue statistics, and return to cheering an entire NFL team to victory. While these types of leagues are loosely considered “fantasy football”, they’re more closely related to football handicapping. Your sole objective is to pick the team that’s sure to win – a difficult task in the topsy-turvy NFL, where a double-digit favorite seems to lose almost every week. Unlike a shorter season in a traditional head-to-head league, survivor leagues are played out through the end of the regular season, providing seventeen opportunities to slip up on the wrong pick. Choosing the right team is a tricky science, as you can only bask in the comfort of one of the elite teams once per season. Below is a checklist to run through before finally deciding which pick you’re going to make each week:
1. ALMOST ALWAYS PICK A HOME TEAM – Every week, you have an opportunity to pick from 13-16 home teams, depending on bye weeks. Any team can unexpectedly lose on the road to an inferior opponent, so I would avoid all road teams to be safe. The only exception would be if the Colts or Saints went to a city like Detroit, whose stadium didn’t carry a significant home field advantage.
2. TEAM OVERALL QUALITY – Before you select your home team for the week, check several factors to determine exactly how good they are. What’s their record? What are the records of teams they have beaten and teams they lost to? Have they beaten quality opponents? What are this team’s strengths and weaknesses? How do those strengths and weaknesses stack up against their upcoming opponent? If your team has a winning record, but ranks in the bottom 10 in pass defense, you may want to avoid matchups against teams that are able to launch a formidable aerial attack. This leads us to the next point…
3. WHO ARE THEY PLAYING? While checking the record of your team’s opponent is important, you should also look at other factors as well. Has this opponent been winning lately? Is momentum on their side? What is their injury situation? Does your team’s opponent play well on the road? Have these two teams had an extensive recent history? Do the head coaches know each other well? Are there players on either team that previously played for the opponent that might lend insight to the other team’s game plan?
4. BYE WEEK – Bye weeks are a welcome respite from the brutality of regular poundings that the NFL’s players dole out on each other. Teams tend to play better coming off a bye week, as they are not only well-rested, but have also had an extra seven days to prepare for their upcoming opponent.
5. CHECK THE POINT SPREAD OF THE GAME – While the point spread does not always prognosticate the outcome of a game, it can be an effective indicator that sums up the talent level of the competition. The spread also factors in a myriad of variables including injuries, team momentum, home field advantage, and game history of previous matchups. Underdogs will cover the spread in their fair share of games in the NFL, but more often than naught, you’re better off picking a favorite to win the game outright, which is the objective in Survivor League Football.
6. CHECK INJURY REPORTS – It is important to look at injuries to key skill players like quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. But sometimes a casual football fan will overlook critical injuries that fly under the radar, like lineman and impact defensive personnel. If you’re leaning toward selecting a home team that has a starting left tackle who is questionable or doubtful, and is scheduled to face a team with a strong pass rush, then you may want to consider making another choice. If a Pro Bowl shutdown corner is inactive, and his backup is a free-agent rookie that gets frequently burned by receivers, then that team should be avoided.
7. CHECK WEATHER REPORT – Unless you picked a team playing their game indoors, make sure to check the weather forecast before kickoff on Sunday morning. Teams that play in a pass-based offense will have less success in poor weather, and the scores in bad weather tend to be closer.
8. PLAY FOR THIS WEEK, DON’T LOOK AHEAD – Since you can only pick teams once, it can be tempting to check the coming weeks on the schedule. The Colts look great this week, but they may also look even better three weeks from now. Don’t get cute trying to line up your entire season of pick selections, as injuries and personnel moves can change the complexion of a team in the NFL from week to week. In other words, what may seem like a good pick three weeks from now may not be a great pick after the next two games take their toll. Play for now, because if you don’t, you may not make it to next week.
9. WHO’S GIVEN UP? – Towards the end of the regular season, you’ll notice that you already picked virtually every dominant team, and are no longer able to simply glance at the remaining teams, and find a winner. You might even be tempted to pick a team with a losing record. There comes a point in the season in Survivor Leagues where the worst teams who are awarded the highest draft picks appear to be playing without a competitive fire; as if they’re trying to lose! Not every team with a horrible record necessarily gives up on the season. But teams that bench established and experienced veterans in place of project rookies at key positions are the teams who are more concerned with developing young talent than winning ball games. These are the types of teams whose upcoming opponents you should target, even if the opponent isn’t playoff bound.
1. ALMOST ALWAYS PICK A HOME TEAM – Every week, you have an opportunity to pick from 13-16 home teams, depending on bye weeks. Any team can unexpectedly lose on the road to an inferior opponent, so I would avoid all road teams to be safe. The only exception would be if the Colts or Saints went to a city like Detroit, whose stadium didn’t carry a significant home field advantage.
2. TEAM OVERALL QUALITY – Before you select your home team for the week, check several factors to determine exactly how good they are. What’s their record? What are the records of teams they have beaten and teams they lost to? Have they beaten quality opponents? What are this team’s strengths and weaknesses? How do those strengths and weaknesses stack up against their upcoming opponent? If your team has a winning record, but ranks in the bottom 10 in pass defense, you may want to avoid matchups against teams that are able to launch a formidable aerial attack. This leads us to the next point…
3. WHO ARE THEY PLAYING? While checking the record of your team’s opponent is important, you should also look at other factors as well. Has this opponent been winning lately? Is momentum on their side? What is their injury situation? Does your team’s opponent play well on the road? Have these two teams had an extensive recent history? Do the head coaches know each other well? Are there players on either team that previously played for the opponent that might lend insight to the other team’s game plan?
4. BYE WEEK – Bye weeks are a welcome respite from the brutality of regular poundings that the NFL’s players dole out on each other. Teams tend to play better coming off a bye week, as they are not only well-rested, but have also had an extra seven days to prepare for their upcoming opponent.
5. CHECK THE POINT SPREAD OF THE GAME – While the point spread does not always prognosticate the outcome of a game, it can be an effective indicator that sums up the talent level of the competition. The spread also factors in a myriad of variables including injuries, team momentum, home field advantage, and game history of previous matchups. Underdogs will cover the spread in their fair share of games in the NFL, but more often than naught, you’re better off picking a favorite to win the game outright, which is the objective in Survivor League Football.
6. CHECK INJURY REPORTS – It is important to look at injuries to key skill players like quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. But sometimes a casual football fan will overlook critical injuries that fly under the radar, like lineman and impact defensive personnel. If you’re leaning toward selecting a home team that has a starting left tackle who is questionable or doubtful, and is scheduled to face a team with a strong pass rush, then you may want to consider making another choice. If a Pro Bowl shutdown corner is inactive, and his backup is a free-agent rookie that gets frequently burned by receivers, then that team should be avoided.
7. CHECK WEATHER REPORT – Unless you picked a team playing their game indoors, make sure to check the weather forecast before kickoff on Sunday morning. Teams that play in a pass-based offense will have less success in poor weather, and the scores in bad weather tend to be closer.
8. PLAY FOR THIS WEEK, DON’T LOOK AHEAD – Since you can only pick teams once, it can be tempting to check the coming weeks on the schedule. The Colts look great this week, but they may also look even better three weeks from now. Don’t get cute trying to line up your entire season of pick selections, as injuries and personnel moves can change the complexion of a team in the NFL from week to week. In other words, what may seem like a good pick three weeks from now may not be a great pick after the next two games take their toll. Play for now, because if you don’t, you may not make it to next week.
9. WHO’S GIVEN UP? – Towards the end of the regular season, you’ll notice that you already picked virtually every dominant team, and are no longer able to simply glance at the remaining teams, and find a winner. You might even be tempted to pick a team with a losing record. There comes a point in the season in Survivor Leagues where the worst teams who are awarded the highest draft picks appear to be playing without a competitive fire; as if they’re trying to lose! Not every team with a horrible record necessarily gives up on the season. But teams that bench established and experienced veterans in place of project rookies at key positions are the teams who are more concerned with developing young talent than winning ball games. These are the types of teams whose upcoming opponents you should target, even if the opponent isn’t playoff bound.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
SEASON AT A CROSSROADS
Your team is, as they say, “in the mix” at 4-4. Only five or six weeks remain until the fantasy postseason, and you want to do everything in your power to make sure your team doesn’t miss the playoffs. While fantasy football is essentially 60% luck, there are several steps you can take to be proactive so that you’ll still be in contention for your league title come Week 14:
1. SCOUR THE WAIVER WIRE – Not that everybody doesn’t already do this, but at this stage in the season, you need to form contingency plans in case one of your studs gets hurt. If you lack depth at a particular position, then focus on grabbing the best available talent in the free agent pool at that position with the easiest upcoming schedule so that you’ll be able to make an informed decision. HINT: Go to your free agent pool, and use the sort functions to tell which free agents have scored the most points in your league’s scoring system. This is typically done by clicking on the words “Fantasy Points” once you’re on the page that lists free agents. You’ll notice that the players are rearranged with the most prolific scorers at the top, going top to bottom. But don’t just grab the players with the most points. You should look at their injury status, upcoming schedule, and whether there are any injury issues with this player’s teammates. For example, if you’re thinking about picking up Terrell Owens, who was dropped in many leagues, you should also take note that his schedule looks somewhat favorable down the stretch. Furthermore, Buffalo’s starting QB Trent Edwards is coming back from his concussion, and this could mean a return to decent production for T.O (or, he just might be washed up). Between injury history, anticipated inclement weather at certain stadiums, and the overall play of certain teams as the season winds down (HINT: avoid ALL Browns!), you should have enough information at your fingertips to make an informed, if not the right, decision on who’s best for your fantasy team down the stretch.
2. THINK TWO, SOMETIMES THREE WEEKS AHEAD – If you have six WRs, five RB, or three TEs, and one of those players is someone you wouldn’t start unless you have a slew of bye/injury issues, then there is probably a chance that this player would sit in the free agent pool and go unclaimed by another team. But you know who won’t go unclaimed? A defense who is scheduled to play the Rams/Brown/Lions/Yuccaneers at home in two weeks! Before kickoff on Sunday morning, before every free agent goes back on waivers, you need to look 2-3 weeks ahead, dump your WR6/RB5/TE3, and grab the team defense that plays well at home with the tastiest matchup against a league doormat. This will keep you ahead of the curve, as your league maters will also start looking more towards future matchups as opposed to the quality of team defenses they start. Example: you have Denver defense, but Seattle D at home against Detroit Week 9 may be a better fantasy start than Broncos Defense playing against the Steelers on Monday Night.
3. ASSESS WHO MAKES A GOOD TRADE PARTNER – Chances are the trade deadline in your league is drawing nigh, and there are other teams in your league looking to make that one trade which will help put them in the playoff picture. Fantasy team owners are more willing to make a trade at this stage in the season since they know who on their team is panning out as opposed to whom they can safely declare a bust. For example, someone may have been reluctant to trade for a RB right after the draft, but now that Larry Johnson is no longer their RB2/RB3, they are actively looking to acquire a RB to replace L.J. Meanwhile, you have four quality RBs, but need a WR3 since you just dropped Terrell Owens out of frustration. Since you can address each other’s needs with one trade, then this dynamic makes you two good trade partners.
4. GET FACE/PHONE TIME, THEN SELL HIGH – In this cold, impersonal age of technology we live in, getting someone to agree to a trade can be quite the challenge if all they do is check their email, see the players offered, and click “Reject Trade.” Even counter-offers can be frowned upon when your trade partner doesn’t know a whole lot about the player you’re offering. Solution: If you play in a league where your competition is in the same geographical location as you, then ask to meet them for a drink. Nothing creates a handshake more quickly than alcohol-infused trade talk. Once you two are engaged in Rounds 2 or 3 of your libations, then start educating your counterpart on the benefits of owning the player you’re trying to trade him/her. Stress a lack of injuries, how that player is or has the potential to be the most productive player on their team, and seal the deal by listing the cupcake fantasy playoff schedule down the road. The mere mention of fantasy playoffs gives your partner the notion that s/he may very well be in the playoff hunt (even if s/he’s 3-5), and in order for that person to flourish in the postseason, they will need your RB3 much more than their WR3 down the stretch. Note: If your trade counterpart lives out of town, then the best you can hope for is to get him/her on the phone (or video conference) so that you can feed off each other’s energy. Instant Message or chat on a computer does NOT allow for this energy exchange, and the walls of communication are still there. The same goes with texting trade offers to your counterpart. It’s much easier to say “no” to an email, text, or instant message as opposed to someone making a hard sell in person or on the phone.
5. ANALYZE WHICH STARTERS ARE ON THEIR LAST LEGS, THEN ACQUIRE BACKUPS – Let’s say you’re thin at RB or QB, and you need a RB3/QB3 to add to your team for depth purposes. It’s not easy to find a starting RB or QB in the free agent pool at this stage, but just because free agents aren’t currently starting, that doesn’t mean they won’t start at some point. Some good portents of lost playing time are: ineffectiveness (20 rushes for 38 yards in a game), a high draft pick waiting in the wings that ownership is calling for more playing for in a lost season (e.g. QB Vince Young), ball security issues (just ask blindsided Steve Slaton owners), truculence in the locker room with teammates and coaching (Larry Johnson), or excessive mileage on the engine (Clinton Portis).
6. ANALYZE WHICH NFL TEAMS HAVE GIVEN UP ON THEIR SEASON, AND ACT ACCORDINGLY – Just because a team is bad, this doesn’t mean they’ve necessarily given up on their season. The Rams and Chiefs might be the two of the worst teams in the NFL, but the cities, fan base, and respective coaching staffs have enough pride and leadership so that they’ll always compete, even in December when they’ve already accumulate double-digit losses. Other inferior teams have already started looking toward next year, and have essentially mailed in the rest of the 2009 season. This year’s candidates to assume this type of mentality include: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Tennessee (head coach Jeff Fisher probably can’t wait to escape the clutches of meddlesome owner Bud Adams), and possibly Washington. If you own players on these teams, you may want to think twice before starting them (except Chris Johnson) unless the matchup is positively delicious.
7. BUY A LOTTERY TICKET – If you play in a deep 2-QB league where there are ZERO starting QBs available in the free agent pool, sometimes you need to make speculative picks and hope that luck is on your side. Injuries are a part of football, and the right injury at the right time can benefit your team tremendously. A “lottery ticket” is essentially a free agent pickup of a backup on a high-powered offense who would see a tremendous boost in value and production if the starter playing ahead of him were to suffer a significant injury. My most famous lottery ticket acquisition occurred when I used a 11th round pick on Larry Johnson in my 2005 draft. When then-starting RB Priest Holmes got hurt, paving the way for the era of LJ’s dominance, my team went from mere contender to the front-runner to win the league (I lost my fantasy Super Bowl that year). Some lottery tickets in this 2009 season include: Arizona QB Matt Leinart (how much more pounding can Kurt Warner’s body take?), Houston QB Rex Grossman (Schaub has carried the ‘injury-prone’ label his entire career), and Minnesota RB Chester Taylor (still plenty of tread on his tires, and the Vikings have an awesome offensive line coupled with a balanced offensive attack which keeps defenses honest), to name a few. If you’re choosing between your WR6 who almost never cracks your starting lineup, or a player who could have an instant impact on your ability to score more points, then this should seem like a no-brainer.
8. TIME TO GET CUTTHROAT – Look at next week’s opponent’s starting lineup. Do they have holes in their lineup? Do they not have a starting QB this week? If this is the case, be proactive and pluck whoever your opponent needs out of the free agent pool to field a complete and competitive team. Don’t be afraid to use your waiver pick if you’re in a must-win situation. There aren’t as many can’t-miss free agents to grab as opposed to earlier in the year, when it was more judicious to hang onto a high waiver pick. Just last week, I saw my opponent needed a defense to pick up, as his was on bye. I dropped my TE2 and current defense, and picked up Arizona as well as Chicago D only because I knew that those two defenses (playing at home against Carolina and Cleveland, respectively) were the ones my opponent would be targeting for acquisition.
9. BELIEVE (but don’t upset the Fantasy Gods) – Not that I’m suggesting you go out and read “The Secret”, but there is something to be said for the power of positive thinking. The unlikeliest upsets have taken place in this beloved sport, and the beauty of fantasy football is that luck can be the sweetest variable to help an underdog reach the postseason. Just because you’re not in first place now doesn’t mean you can’t leapfrog several teams to get back into playoff contention. Now, there is a difference between believing in your fantasy squad, and mocking the shortcomings of other people’s teams. While I lack sufficient data to support this, experience has suggested that the Fantasy Gods (yes, they exist – you’ll just have to trust me) only seem to listen when you arrogantly disparage your opponent’s team. Long story short: Keep it classy when you lose, and stay magnanimous when you win. Your defeated opponent is dejected enough about losing without you rubbing it in his/her face.
1. SCOUR THE WAIVER WIRE – Not that everybody doesn’t already do this, but at this stage in the season, you need to form contingency plans in case one of your studs gets hurt. If you lack depth at a particular position, then focus on grabbing the best available talent in the free agent pool at that position with the easiest upcoming schedule so that you’ll be able to make an informed decision. HINT: Go to your free agent pool, and use the sort functions to tell which free agents have scored the most points in your league’s scoring system. This is typically done by clicking on the words “Fantasy Points” once you’re on the page that lists free agents. You’ll notice that the players are rearranged with the most prolific scorers at the top, going top to bottom. But don’t just grab the players with the most points. You should look at their injury status, upcoming schedule, and whether there are any injury issues with this player’s teammates. For example, if you’re thinking about picking up Terrell Owens, who was dropped in many leagues, you should also take note that his schedule looks somewhat favorable down the stretch. Furthermore, Buffalo’s starting QB Trent Edwards is coming back from his concussion, and this could mean a return to decent production for T.O (or, he just might be washed up). Between injury history, anticipated inclement weather at certain stadiums, and the overall play of certain teams as the season winds down (HINT: avoid ALL Browns!), you should have enough information at your fingertips to make an informed, if not the right, decision on who’s best for your fantasy team down the stretch.
2. THINK TWO, SOMETIMES THREE WEEKS AHEAD – If you have six WRs, five RB, or three TEs, and one of those players is someone you wouldn’t start unless you have a slew of bye/injury issues, then there is probably a chance that this player would sit in the free agent pool and go unclaimed by another team. But you know who won’t go unclaimed? A defense who is scheduled to play the Rams/Brown/Lions/Yuccaneers at home in two weeks! Before kickoff on Sunday morning, before every free agent goes back on waivers, you need to look 2-3 weeks ahead, dump your WR6/RB5/TE3, and grab the team defense that plays well at home with the tastiest matchup against a league doormat. This will keep you ahead of the curve, as your league maters will also start looking more towards future matchups as opposed to the quality of team defenses they start. Example: you have Denver defense, but Seattle D at home against Detroit Week 9 may be a better fantasy start than Broncos Defense playing against the Steelers on Monday Night.
3. ASSESS WHO MAKES A GOOD TRADE PARTNER – Chances are the trade deadline in your league is drawing nigh, and there are other teams in your league looking to make that one trade which will help put them in the playoff picture. Fantasy team owners are more willing to make a trade at this stage in the season since they know who on their team is panning out as opposed to whom they can safely declare a bust. For example, someone may have been reluctant to trade for a RB right after the draft, but now that Larry Johnson is no longer their RB2/RB3, they are actively looking to acquire a RB to replace L.J. Meanwhile, you have four quality RBs, but need a WR3 since you just dropped Terrell Owens out of frustration. Since you can address each other’s needs with one trade, then this dynamic makes you two good trade partners.
4. GET FACE/PHONE TIME, THEN SELL HIGH – In this cold, impersonal age of technology we live in, getting someone to agree to a trade can be quite the challenge if all they do is check their email, see the players offered, and click “Reject Trade.” Even counter-offers can be frowned upon when your trade partner doesn’t know a whole lot about the player you’re offering. Solution: If you play in a league where your competition is in the same geographical location as you, then ask to meet them for a drink. Nothing creates a handshake more quickly than alcohol-infused trade talk. Once you two are engaged in Rounds 2 or 3 of your libations, then start educating your counterpart on the benefits of owning the player you’re trying to trade him/her. Stress a lack of injuries, how that player is or has the potential to be the most productive player on their team, and seal the deal by listing the cupcake fantasy playoff schedule down the road. The mere mention of fantasy playoffs gives your partner the notion that s/he may very well be in the playoff hunt (even if s/he’s 3-5), and in order for that person to flourish in the postseason, they will need your RB3 much more than their WR3 down the stretch. Note: If your trade counterpart lives out of town, then the best you can hope for is to get him/her on the phone (or video conference) so that you can feed off each other’s energy. Instant Message or chat on a computer does NOT allow for this energy exchange, and the walls of communication are still there. The same goes with texting trade offers to your counterpart. It’s much easier to say “no” to an email, text, or instant message as opposed to someone making a hard sell in person or on the phone.
5. ANALYZE WHICH STARTERS ARE ON THEIR LAST LEGS, THEN ACQUIRE BACKUPS – Let’s say you’re thin at RB or QB, and you need a RB3/QB3 to add to your team for depth purposes. It’s not easy to find a starting RB or QB in the free agent pool at this stage, but just because free agents aren’t currently starting, that doesn’t mean they won’t start at some point. Some good portents of lost playing time are: ineffectiveness (20 rushes for 38 yards in a game), a high draft pick waiting in the wings that ownership is calling for more playing for in a lost season (e.g. QB Vince Young), ball security issues (just ask blindsided Steve Slaton owners), truculence in the locker room with teammates and coaching (Larry Johnson), or excessive mileage on the engine (Clinton Portis).
6. ANALYZE WHICH NFL TEAMS HAVE GIVEN UP ON THEIR SEASON, AND ACT ACCORDINGLY – Just because a team is bad, this doesn’t mean they’ve necessarily given up on their season. The Rams and Chiefs might be the two of the worst teams in the NFL, but the cities, fan base, and respective coaching staffs have enough pride and leadership so that they’ll always compete, even in December when they’ve already accumulate double-digit losses. Other inferior teams have already started looking toward next year, and have essentially mailed in the rest of the 2009 season. This year’s candidates to assume this type of mentality include: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Tennessee (head coach Jeff Fisher probably can’t wait to escape the clutches of meddlesome owner Bud Adams), and possibly Washington. If you own players on these teams, you may want to think twice before starting them (except Chris Johnson) unless the matchup is positively delicious.
7. BUY A LOTTERY TICKET – If you play in a deep 2-QB league where there are ZERO starting QBs available in the free agent pool, sometimes you need to make speculative picks and hope that luck is on your side. Injuries are a part of football, and the right injury at the right time can benefit your team tremendously. A “lottery ticket” is essentially a free agent pickup of a backup on a high-powered offense who would see a tremendous boost in value and production if the starter playing ahead of him were to suffer a significant injury. My most famous lottery ticket acquisition occurred when I used a 11th round pick on Larry Johnson in my 2005 draft. When then-starting RB Priest Holmes got hurt, paving the way for the era of LJ’s dominance, my team went from mere contender to the front-runner to win the league (I lost my fantasy Super Bowl that year). Some lottery tickets in this 2009 season include: Arizona QB Matt Leinart (how much more pounding can Kurt Warner’s body take?), Houston QB Rex Grossman (Schaub has carried the ‘injury-prone’ label his entire career), and Minnesota RB Chester Taylor (still plenty of tread on his tires, and the Vikings have an awesome offensive line coupled with a balanced offensive attack which keeps defenses honest), to name a few. If you’re choosing between your WR6 who almost never cracks your starting lineup, or a player who could have an instant impact on your ability to score more points, then this should seem like a no-brainer.
8. TIME TO GET CUTTHROAT – Look at next week’s opponent’s starting lineup. Do they have holes in their lineup? Do they not have a starting QB this week? If this is the case, be proactive and pluck whoever your opponent needs out of the free agent pool to field a complete and competitive team. Don’t be afraid to use your waiver pick if you’re in a must-win situation. There aren’t as many can’t-miss free agents to grab as opposed to earlier in the year, when it was more judicious to hang onto a high waiver pick. Just last week, I saw my opponent needed a defense to pick up, as his was on bye. I dropped my TE2 and current defense, and picked up Arizona as well as Chicago D only because I knew that those two defenses (playing at home against Carolina and Cleveland, respectively) were the ones my opponent would be targeting for acquisition.
9. BELIEVE (but don’t upset the Fantasy Gods) – Not that I’m suggesting you go out and read “The Secret”, but there is something to be said for the power of positive thinking. The unlikeliest upsets have taken place in this beloved sport, and the beauty of fantasy football is that luck can be the sweetest variable to help an underdog reach the postseason. Just because you’re not in first place now doesn’t mean you can’t leapfrog several teams to get back into playoff contention. Now, there is a difference between believing in your fantasy squad, and mocking the shortcomings of other people’s teams. While I lack sufficient data to support this, experience has suggested that the Fantasy Gods (yes, they exist – you’ll just have to trust me) only seem to listen when you arrogantly disparage your opponent’s team. Long story short: Keep it classy when you lose, and stay magnanimous when you win. Your defeated opponent is dejected enough about losing without you rubbing it in his/her face.
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