tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87888297977796116882023-11-15T08:09:02.855-08:00Your Fantasy Sports Hint BookSammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-21503749483645104062010-08-19T00:43:00.000-07:002010-08-19T08:26:36.664-07:002010 PRESEASON PPR RB TIER REPORTIn the topsy-turvy world of fantasy football, one must search for constants that provide steady, consistent statistical results. If you play in a PPR (points-per-reception) league, then the best way to ensure that your running backs don’t provide you with crumbs on gameday is to target players who are an integral part of their team’s receiving game. After all, a three-yard rush provides minimal production for your team, but a three-yard catch is often the equivalent of a 13-23-yard rush, depending on your league’s scoring. <br /><br />Even if your RB tanks on a given Sunday with, say, 17 rushes for a measly 46 yards, the four catches for 31 yards he also accrued is what would make this performance a somewhat respectable fantasy day. <br /><br />Think of a PPR stud like a wife, husband, or mother who knows how to cook. Your relationship might have your ups and downs (or, in terms of fantasy football, good games mixed with bad games), but through thick and thin, you can get a solid meal out of her/him. <br /><br />While there is nothing inherently wrong with someone who can’t cook, this basic inability to prepare food for a loved one is akin to a RB who can’t scrape together a handful of points on his worst fantasy day. No tailback in the NFL is going to rush for 100 yards with a TD every single week, but it doesn’t mean that you need to be left high and dry on the days your RB1 or RB2 faces a stout defensive front. <br /><br />I will start my comparison of PPR deities with one of the more exquisite delicacies, and work my way down the quality of food chain to mere sustenance:<br /><br />Editor’s Note: These PPR rankings do not necessarily correspond with typical RB rankings, so don’t freak out that names like Michael Turner or Thomas Jones are omitted. While talented, these aforementioned RBs haven’t proven to be pass catching RBs throughout their career (although the Falcons are claiming they’ll get Turner more involved, I’ll believe it when I see it). <br /><br /><br />Tier 1, aka Beef Wellington (55-80 catches): This group of RBs is good for 50-80 catches per year (3-5 receptions a game), which is the statistical equivalent of 8-12 TDs, depending on your league’s scoring system. If you play in a PPR league, these guys should already be highlighted on your cheat sheet.<br /><br />Ray Rice - Even with Willis McGahee vulturing touchdowns, Rice is the PPR gold standard. Reminiscent of the glory days of Marshall Faulk, owning Ray Rice is like having a RB1 and a WR3 in one player. Baltimore’s offense has only improved in the offseason with the acquisition of WR Anquan Boldin and the continued maturation of QB Joe Flacco. Rice is young, very fast, blessed with a plus-offensive line, and looks likely to repeat last year’s numbers.<br /><br />Frank Gore – An explosive back with little competition for carries in San Francisco, Gore has always demonstrated an ability not only to catch the ball, but to get his YAC (yards after catch) on as well. Factor in checkdown specialist QB Alex Smith, and Gore is primed for close to 50 catches this year. The one caveat about Gore is that he has yet to put in a complete 16-game season thus far in his three-year career, but don’t let that deter you from using your mid-first round pick on him in your PPR league.<br /><br />Chris Johnson – Johnson has been so good during his first two years, it’s hard to fathom that he has still yet to hit his prime as a PPR RB. Rotoworld projects Johnson to catch 50 passes in addition to another monstrous season carrying the rock. But you shouldn’t need any additional reasons to use a top-three pick on the titanic Titan. One disclaimer: as much as we love us some CJ2K, his prediction of 2500 rushing yards seems a little optimistic.<br /><br />Maurice Jones-Drew – As a goal-line featured back with soft hands, Jones-Drew provides all-around greatness, regardless of what kind of fantasy football you play. His YPC average may have dwindled down the stretch in 2009, but the workhorse back did everything fantasy owners could have hoped for. Owners can expect 50+ catches in 2010, but since the Jaguars don’t have many other offensive weapons, MJD could acquire an acute case of eight-in-the-box-itis early and often this season. <br /><br />Steven Jackson – Having amassed 375 total touches in 2009, Jackson’s body was badly beaten by season’s end. The latest word from Rams’ training camp is that Jackson is 100% after offseason back surgery. While St. Louis ushers in a new era with Sam Bradford, their $78-million rookie quarterback, Jackson should remain the focal point of the Ram offense in 2010 as the Rams help Bradford acclimate to the speed of the NFL. S-Jax’s reception totals have increased each of his three years in the league from 38 in 2007 to 51 in 2009. The Rams may not be the prettiest team to watch, but Jackson is an inspiring workhorse with the heart of a warrior.<br /><br />Adrian Peterson - A.P. is Rotoworld’s consensus #1 overall pick, and his expected involvement in the receiving game in lieu of departed RB Chester Taylor is a big reason for this. Not only will he accrue monster rushing totals and TDs (barring injury), but we are also projecting 57 catches for Purple Jesus as well. However, the uncertainty surrounding Bret Favre’s return/retirement, in addition to the health of wideouts Sidney Rice and Percy casts a bit of a cloud over the Viking offense. While some feel Favre’s retirement makes Peterson the undisputed #1 overall pick, my feeling is that Peterson would be better served not facing eight (or nine) in the box while defenses dare Tarvaris Jackson to beat them.<br /><br />Tier 2: Rib Eye (41-54 receptions):<br /><br />Pierre Thomas – As the starting halfback on the most explosive offense in the league, PT Cruiser looks like one of the best value picks as we head into 2010 draft season. Thomas not only figures to get gobs of goal-line opportunities now that TD vulture Mike Bell is on the Eagles, but Thomas should also help the Saints to run down the clock in the second half of games of which they are leading. Finally, he pulled down 39 receptions in spite of missing two games last season. Considering his catch totals have trended upwards each of his first three seasons as a pro, Thomas is a nice RB1 with considerable upside, or a dynamite RB2 if you use one of your earlier picks on a RB1. <br /><br />Jamaal Charles - No RB burst on the scene from relative obscurity to fantasy stud status in 2009 quite like Charles. Asked to take over featured back duties from the always-classy Larry Johnson after LJ “tweeted” his way out of Kansas City, Charles logged 1120 rush yards and 40 catches in spite of only starting eight games. Thomas Jones was brought in from the Jets during the offseason to keep the smallish-for-a-featured-back Charles healthy through December, but the latter is expected to handle the passing down work. Charles is a multi-faceted threat who will be the centerpiece of the Chiefs’ offense. An effective Dwayne Bowe should help to keep defenses somewhat honest downfield, but since QB Matt Cassel hearts checking down to his backs, Charles is a very good PPR pick. <br /><br />DeAngelo Williams - DeAngelo is involved in a productive timeshare in Carolina, but he has proven to be a superior pass-catcher to Jonathan Stewart. Even though both backs are healthy as training camp gets underway, there should be enough production for both Stewart to flourish in the ground game, as well as Williams’ ability to catch balls out of the backfield. DeAngelo only finished with 29 catches in 2009, but given that he missed three games and Jake Delhomme has left Carolina for Browner pastures, the Panther offense looks much more promising in 2010 than it did a year ago.<br /><br />LeSean McCoy – Even with Donovan McNabb gone to Washington, the Eagles will remain a pass-first offense with first-year starter Kevin Kolb now under center. Although this doesn’t appear to bode well for their running backs, Brian Westbrook proved during his career that RBs can flourish in Philly. McCoy took over for Westbrook midway through the ’09 season, and demonstrated his PPR prowess since he caught three or more passes in eight games he played (a minimum of three catches is considered a solid PPR day for RBs). Mind you, McCoy doesn’t get pounded (only 20 carries twice all season), and still has to improve his pass-blocking. But given his steady hands, which only produced one lost fumble in his rookie season, there is upside here. If you believe Kolb will pick up where McNabb left off, then McCoy should be in a productive situation in Philly. Just don’t be shocked if FB Leonard Weaver and/or newly-acquired Mike Bell vulture the occasional goal-line TD.<br /><br />Jahvid Best – Each fantasy football preseason, there seems to be one rookie whose potential we so-called industry experts like to drool over. This year, Best is the player who earns that honor. Blessed with sub-4.3 speed, elite pass-catching skills, and an immediate grasp of the Lions’ offense, Lions coach Jim Schwartz has already used the elusive F-word when referring to Best’s role in the offense (feature back…which F-word did you think I meant?). The Lions’ offense, led by a seasoned Matthew Stafford in his sophomore campaign, should be vastly improved in 2010. Although the Lions’ are fortified with depth at halfback, Best could be a fourth-round pick that makes his owners smile all season long if he stays healthy.<br /><br /><br />Tier 3: Salisbury Steak (26-40 receptions)<br />Joseph Addai - Addai has proven adept at catching the ball out of the backfield throughout his four-year career, and enters a contract year in 2010. However, reports early in training camp suggest that second-year halfback Donald Brown is a superior talent to Addai, and should cut into his featured back role as the season progresses. As Indy’s rushing attack ranked dead last in the NFL last season, make no mistake that this offense begins and ends with quarterback Peyton Manning. That said, the Colts’ injury-riddled offensive line and the emergence of Brown are two reasons Addai may not register another 40-catch campaign in his walk year in spite of Manning’s comfort level with him. <br /><br />Ricky Williams / Ronnie Brown - Both of the Dolphins’ top RBs are skilled at catching the ball out of the backfield, but their expected timeshare will prevent each other from becoming standout PPR assets unless one of them misses significant time. Not unlike the aforementioned Panthers, Miami features a young quarterback and an effective, two-pronged rushing attack. When Ronnie and Ricky are both healthy, they complement each other well, but neither is going to top 25 touches per game as long as they’re spelling each other.<br /><br />Knowshon Moreno – The Bronco offense is in a transitional phase right now given the shift from their traditional zone-blocking scheme to conventional power blocking that will accompany the new-look offense. Although the short passing strategy remains unclear without some game film, Kyle Orton makes a living on dinking and dunking while Moreno is a capable receiver with only veteran backup Correll Buckhalter competing for playing time. Denver has experienced some turnover, as well as key injuries that plagued them before training camp, and Moreno is no exception as he deals with a bum hamstring. However, the former Bulldog should be ready for Week 1, even if he does miss the preseason.<br /><br />Darren Sproles / Ryan Mathews - Sproles is expected to operate primarily on third-downs and in the Chargers’ two-minute offense, but his overall value is affected by his inability to run between the tackles, as well as rookie Ryan Mathews’ presence in short-yardage situations. While the departed LaDainian Tomlinson also factored into the Charger passing game, Mathews is expected to pick up where LT left off. Charger head coach Norv Turner predicted 40 receptions for Mathews, but the rookie didn’t factor much in the receiving game during his days at Fresno State. The San Diego backfield is a bit up in the air until we get some game film on Mathews as a pro, but Sproles is an explosive receiver in the prime of his career, and could be leaned on a bit more if Mathews struggles, or the Charger passing game misfires due to the holdout/suspension of Vincent Jackson.<br /><br />Matt Forte / Chester Taylor - Forte was a top-tier PPR machine as recently as last preseason after averaging 60 catches his first two years as a pro, but now will split duties with free agent acquisition Chester Taylor. Although Forte is slated to start, Taylor will likely cut into his receptions as well as his carries. Although Forte was first-round material before 2009, his poor performance (due partly to an early-season knee injury, as well as awful run-blocking) will knock him down at least a couple rounds for this year’s draft. Anyone who owned him last year has likely sworn off the unofficial fantasy bust of 2009, but Forte, now 100% healthy and “severely” outplaying Taylor in camp, could provide good PPR value in Mike Martz’s frenetic offensive schemes if you take a chance on him as a RB3.<br /><br />Darren McFadden – Although the fourth overall pick of the 2008 draft has only excelled at underachieving thus far in his two-year NFL career, McFadden has a couple factors working in his favor as the ’10 season approaches. First, 2009 Oakland starter Justin Fargas was released in the offseason, leaving “Run DMC” and Michael Bush as the only experienced halfbacks on the roster. McFadden is the more gifted pass-catcher of the pair. Second, beleaguered quarterback project JaMarcus Russell was replaced by checkdown specialist Jason Campbell, who should establish a fine rapport dumping the pigskin to McFadden throughout the season. Finally, the Raiders improved their offensive line during in April’s draft, which should help the offense to move the chains more effectively in a weak division like the AFC West. If McFadden’s gimpy hamstring is healthy in time for Week 1, he has the upside to make a fine RB2.<br /><br />Jerome Harrison – If he hadn’t spent half the season in coach Eric Mangini’s doghouse, Harrison may very well be a tier higher due to his penchant for catching passes out of the backfield. Harrison won the 2009 Billy Volek award (aka fantasy playoff MVP) for those who were ballsy enough to pick him up and start him Week 15 (I was not, and could have used him when Steven Jackson was declared a Week 16 inactive an hour before 4pm kickoff). Cleveland traded up to draft RB Montario Hardesty in the second-round in April, and Hardesty is expected to eventually battle Harrison in training camp for the starting job. However, Harrison remains the better PPR back of the two. With Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace sharing checkdown-er, quarterback duties in Cleveland all season, I can see Harrison getting 40-50 catches, even in a timeshare with Hardesty. <br /><br />Clinton Portis – The former Bronco reunites with his former coach, Mike Shanahan. In 2002-03, Portis had his two most productive seasons in Denver. In spite of injuries and a lot of mileage since his days in the Mile High city, Portis has proven to be a capable asset both as a receiver, and is still one of the best backs in the league at pass blocking and picking up blitzers. The 2010 Washington backfield appears crowded what with veterans Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Ryan Torain also battling for potential carries. Regardless, Portis is the starter. If Shanahan mixes his backs in judiciously, then Portis should remain effective as long as he doesn’t get mercilessly pounded, and could make a decent RB3.<br /><br />Chris Wells / Tim Hightower – While it seems odd that a player who caught 97 passes over the last two seasons in a high-powered Cardinal offense would fall to the third tier of PPR ratings, Hightower gradually relinquished playing time to Beanie Wells in 2009, and that trend figures to continue in 2010. While Hightower is expected to handle the majority of passing downs due to his intrepid pass blocking abilities, Wells stands to eventually take over early down work, as well as short yardage/goal-line situations. Unfortunately for Hightower, Kurt Warner’s retirement means coach Ken Whisenhunt will likely reel in the offense for incumbent starter Matt Leinart, creating more of a balanced offensive attack. Although Hightower is still practicing with the first team, he shouldn’t be viewed as more than a late-round RB3 for the long term.<br /><br />Reggie Bush – The Saints have proven over the last few years that their offensive production is robust enough to bear two startable running backs in PPR leagues. While Pierre Thomas is the starting tailback, Bush provides more than simply third-down/scatback work, as he occasionally lines up in the slot. Bush seems like an intriguing pick this year because he claims to be 100% healthy for the first time since his rookie season. However, he is only projected to get approximately ten touches per game in addition to his punt and/or kick return duties. Chances are that someone will overpay for those ten touches and start him as an RB2. Don’t be that guy (or girl).<br /><br />Shonn Greene / LaDainian Tomlinson / Joe McKnight – The Jets’ running backs underwent a major overhaul during the 2009-’10 offseason with the departure of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington coupled with the arrivals of LT and McKnight. As the Jets employ a run-first offense, there should be enough carries to distribute to each of the three RBs to maintain a somewhat steady rotation. Green figures to get the early down work while McKnight will handle mostly passing situations and two-minute offenses. Tomlinson, no longer equipped with the burst that made him a PPR force during his prime, will instead serve as a short-yardage specialist, and will likely spell Green on the occasional series. Although Greene has been referred to as the “bell cow” by coach Rex Ryan, don’t expect the early-down back to get as many receptions as McKnight.<br /><br />Carnell Williams / Derrick Ward – Williams shocked the football world by playing a full season in 2009, and figures to serve as the Bucs’ starting halfback with Ward as a clear backup. However, Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris has said that he will go with the “hot hand” in the running game, which opens things up for Ward a bit. While both RBs are decent pass catchers, the division of snaps is what will differentiate their value in PPR leagues. As the situation currently stands, Cadillac has more value as a RB3 while Ward is more RB4/flex material at this point in the preseason, but stay tuned to this situation in case Cadillac gets in a fender-bender.<br /><br />Felix Jones – In the crowded Dallas backfield, Jones is the RB to target. As he offers more durability than Marion Barber and more playmaking upside than Tashard Choice, Jones is also becoming more of a factor in the Cowboy passing game, having attained three or more catches in three of the last five weeks of 2009. While rookie WR Dez Bryant recovers from a high ankle sprain, Jones is handling kickoff return duties. However, this arrangement on special teams shouldn’t last once Bryant returns to action.<br /><br />Fred Jackson / C.J. Spiller – A quandary in the Buffalo running game surfaces as head coach Chan Gailey has had a history of using a feature back in his offenses over his career. Jackson is currently running with the first team in training camp while backup Marshawn Lynch has said all the right things to the media despite currently serving as a backup. Enter first-round pick C.J. Spiller, and this situation gets even messier, given that all three backs can be talented PPR assets. Each player is healthy, and has the ability to catch at least 40 balls this season, but Spiller could serve more of a Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin-type role and line up in the slot on many occasions. I would avoid Jackson and Spiller until the mid-to-later rounds as a speculative RB3. Spiller has nice upside who may run with the ones sooner than later, but if he is limited to only occasional reps and mostly special teams, then he could be overvalued by the preseason hype train.<br /><br />Tier 4: Mac n’ Cheese (16-25 receptions)<br />Justin Forsett / Leon Washington – The crowded backfield in Seattle features two similar RBs in Washington and Forsett who must vie for playing time along with Julius Jones (currently on Seattle’s RB “back burner”, not a PPR option), and don’t figure to spend much time together on the field. In spite of their presence, Seahawk head coach Pete Carroll is reportedly shopping for a bruiser-type back who can run between the tackles and move the chains in short-yardage situations. Although both Forsett and Washington are talented and healthy, I’d avoid using a roster spot on either until injuries or great play thrusts one of the two into the spotlight. Otherwise, Seattle’s offense isn’t explosive enough to warrant two rosterable, pass-catching RBs. <br /><br />Marion Barber – Although Marion the Barbarian has displayed impressive pass-catching skills for a so-called “bruiser” throughout his career, a committee timeshare with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will limit his touches in the Cowboy backfield. Barber has proven to be the superior PPR back to Jones. However, as his dwindling YPC in the final weeks of 2009 will attest, Barber’s body tends to break down towards the latter stages of the season. Owner Jerry Jones has said that Barber will likely be used in a “closer” role, but teams rarely pass when they’re running out the clock in the second half. Hence, Barber is not the tasty RB2 he was a couple preseasons ago, so stay away unless you want a RB3 who only gets 10-12 touches a game (hint: you don’t).<br /><br />Rashard Mendenhall – Steeler head coach Mike Tomlin will have Mendenhall continue serving as Pittsburgh’s goal-line back, but he has been more of an afterthought in their passing attack. Despite the fact that QB Ben Roethlisberger completed 56 more passes in 2009 than any other season during his up-and-down career, Mendenhall only caught 25 balls. The Steelers figure to run more in 2010, so Mendenhall will be more valuable for his goal line work than his receiving skills. Fortunately for Mendenhall’s owners, rookie RB Jonathan Dwyer and veteran Mewelde Moore have been less-than-impressive in camp thus far, so job security doesn’t figure to be an issue at the moment. In most leagues, Mendenhall should be a late first-round pick.<br /><br />Ryan Grant – Grant is the perfect example of a RB1 in non-PPR leagues who may get drafted a little earlier than he should in PPR leagues. Having only mustered 25 catches in spite of a full season in Green Bay’s backfield, Grant hasn’t taken the necessary steps forward to prove his mettle in the Packers’ prolific passing attack. In spite of his relatively meager reception totals, Grant would be a solid RB2 if you can grab him in the fourth round. Taking Grant any earlier in a PPR draft would be reaching, as Brandon Jackson handles most of Green Bay’s third-down work.<br /><br />Brandon Jacobs / Ahmad Bradshaw – Although Jacobs has reportedly looked “fast and lean” thus far in training camp, he is expected to share snaps 50/50 with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs frustrated his owners who spent a second-round pick for his lackluster production in 2009, and has served as more of a traditional goal-line back as opposed to a standout pass-catcher. Still, if he can approach the 15 TDs he piled up in 2008, Jacobs’ owners won’t be to upset about the shortage of receptions, even if his playing time is split with Bradshaw. Jacobs would be better served as a RB3 in PPR leagues. Bradshaw is a safer bet for more catches and a better PPR value pick, but won’t provide as many trips to the end zone as Jacobs. <br /><br />Cedric Benson – Sometimes, you should just ignore your instincts and blindly trust fantasy football experts. I wasn’t going to touch the underachieving Benson with a ten-foot pole in last years’ draft, in spite of rampant preseason hype surrounding him. Fast forward to the end of the season, and the Bengal RB1 turned out to be one of the best value picks of the year. In spite of his impressive season as Cincy’s workhorse, Benson is only good for one catch or so per game. As he provides an example of a better non-PPR RB, don’t take the (alleged) bar brawler until the third or fourth round as your RB2, even if he isn’t facing a suspension from the league for repeated off-field antics.<br /><br /><br />Hot Pockets (Bye-week PPR Fill-ins): Bye-week PPR replacements who can get you a handful of catches, but not much more: <br /><br />Kevin Faulk – Marshall’s younger cousin is considered the Peter Pan of running backs given that he still averaged 5.4 YPC at 33 years young in 2009. Faulk is someone playing for a high-powered offense who you can pick up off the waiver wire to get a few receptions and carries if your team is beset by byes or injuries, but don’t expect a touchdown. If New England’s offense returns to form, you could do worse than pick up and start Faulk as your bye-week flex/RB3.<br /><br />Mewelde Moore – Unless Steeler starter Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt or misses game time, Moore isn’t a rosterable option in most fantasy leagues. However, if Moore finds himself starting in Mendenhall’s absence, then the Steeler offense will likely revert to its pass-first identity from 2009. While Moore is far from a sure bet for goal-line work, 40-50 catches isn’t out of the question if he gets extended playing time. <br /><br />Kevin Smith – Smith was drafted in 2008 to serve as Detroit’s feature back, but now will serve as little more than a handcuff for Jahvid Best owners. Regardless, Jones is just about fully recovered from ACL surgery, and his limited reps should keep him healthy. Before his injury, however, Smith proved to be more than capable in the receiving game by averaging 40 receptions each of his first two seasons. If Best gets hurt or proves ineffective at the professional level, Smith will at least provide RB3 value in PPR leagues if the Lions offense is as fluid in 2010 as experts are predicting. <br /><br />Steve Slaton - As the man who gave Matt Forte a run for 2009 Fantasy Bust of the Year, Slaton has been relegated to kickoff return duties as well as third down work thus far in training camp. He is fully recovered from offseason surgery that repaired nerve damage in his neck, but the Texans drafted bruising back Ben Tate to offset the team’s reliance on the passing game. As the situation currently stands, Tate and holdover Arian Foster are battling for the starting RB job while Slaton will likely be behind to work on passing downs. He might put up some points if you need a bye-week replacement, but Slaton’s stock has plummeted as much as any active player’s has between last year and this year…he’s the anti-Jamaal Charles. Stay away on draft day.<br /><br />Tashard Choice – If he’s available on your waiver wire during a bye week or injury crunch, then Choice is a candidate with high upside in case Marion Barber or Felix Jones misses playing time. Although he possesses little value as the Cowboys’ third RB, Choice proved to be a capable PPR back when he was called to extensive action last season against Carolina and Denver in Weeks 3 and 4. If you’re thin at RB, Choice makes a good roster stash given the historically fleeting health of both Barber and Jones.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-26909661519450795752010-07-01T17:10:00.001-07:002010-07-01T17:22:36.855-07:00IF THIS ISN’T YOUR FIRST DRAFT…After a year or two of playing fantasy football, you may feel like you’re learning the finer points of the game that separate the rookies from the veterans. Not unlike the mindset of a recent college graduate, you are now grasping how much there is still to learn on an annual basis about the nuances of assessing the talent pool, the revolving door of NFL head coaches and front office executives, and how this turnover affects said talent. <br /><br />In addition to the NFL’s daily offseason activities, you may realize that you have a lot of learn about the tendencies of the fellow fantasy general managers in your league that you’ll match wits with come draft day. <br /><br /><br />1. Availability of talent per position<br /><br />Each preseason, fantasy football experts across the land assess which positions are rich in talent compared to other positions with less depth. Although there are obviously the same number of NFL players from year-to-year in the league (barring expansion, of course), some years produce, say fewer quality fantasy quarterbacks or running backs than others. <br /><br />Headed into the 2010 preseason, there are actually more startable fantasy QBs than a year ago. As an example, Houston’s Matt Schaub has approached stud status. Before the 2009 season, he was a high-upside pick that was considered a steal in the fifth or sixth round. In 2010, Schaub likely won’t last past the third round.<br /><br />Brett Favre was a speculative pick in what was supposed to be a run-based offense in Minnesota. Many prognosticators felt that, at this stage of Favre’s storied career, he would simply be a game manager whose primary responsibility would be handing off the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Assuming Favre doesn’t retire since he recently underwent ankle surgery, the 40-year-old provides QB1 upside, something we didn’t really see coming in 2009.<br /> <br />Other fantasy QBs that are new to the draft radar in 2010: <br /><br />Philadephia’s Kevin Kolb, who will take over under center for the traded Donovan McNabb. Kolb has performed brilliantly during brief stints on the field during his career, and Eagle Nation has been calling for him for years.<br /><br />Baltimore’s Joe Flacco really stepped up both his play and leadership in 2009, and with the addition of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin, he will certainly get drafted a lot earlier in 2010 than 2009.<br /><br />Matt Moore, Chad Henne, the aforementioned McNabb, and Jason Campbell all provide upgrades at quarterback for the Panthers, Dolphins, Redskins, and Raiders compared to these teams’ ‘09 starters.<br /><br />Former first-round picks Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith each took major steps forward towards establishing themselves as fantasy starters, and will command more dialogue as players to target as opposed to being players to settle for.<br /><br />2009 disappointments Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel are expected to bounce back after a rough first year with their new teams. Cutler will benefit from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s expansion of the playbook, and Cassel has highly-touted rookie wideout Dexter McCluster to add to a somewhat deep receiving corps that includes Dwayne Bowe, a rejuvenated Chris Chambers, and newly-acquired possession threat Jerheme Urban. <br /><br />Given the changing landscape in fantasy football with regards to quarterbacks, one notices that there are more startable QBs than a year ago. For this reason, you should apply principles of supply and demand to your draft. Since there is a bigger supply of signal callers, you should address other positions with scarcer talent before QB. In other words, wait a round or two to pick your QBs, and grab an elite RB or WR with that earlier pick instead, especially in leagues that only start one quarterback per fantasy team.<br /><br /><br />2. ADP rankings<br /><br />Do ADP’s reflected in FF publications correctly address your league’s scoring system?<br /><br />Before you blindly trust the Average Draft Position Rankings, make sure that the list that you are referencing is designed for the same type of league that you are in. If you are in a “touchdown league”, where the vast majority of points scored is from trips to the end zone, then you shouldn’t use points-per-reception ADP Rankings for your draft. Or, if you are planning for a PPR draft, don’t use a cheat sheet for yardage-heavy leagues, as the player valuations can alter completely (e.g. Matt Forte)<br /><br />Cross-reference ADP with where you are in draft<br /><br />During your draft, you’ll see players that you’ve been targeting all preseason, and are hot to snatch that player for your team. Before you click ‘draft player’, take a look at your ADP rankings. If that player’s ADP Ranking is, say, 15-20 points lower than your current draft position, then you might want to wait a round, as there is a decent chance that your guy will be available in the next round. <br /><br />For example, let’s say you’re a big Bret Favre fan, and that he’s coming back in 2010 to play for the Vikings again. During the fourth round of a 12-team league, you’re tempted to take Favre as your QB1 after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo have been selected. If Favre’s ADP is around, say, 92, and you’re only on the 43rd pick, then you should know that you can probably wait on Favre for a couple rounds. However, if you have to have him, then take him with a seventh-rounder, as Favre theoretically should be available then.<br /><br />ADP is compiled from averaging out hundreds of drafts from all over the fantasy football industry. The most knowledgeable fantasy pundits essentially voice their opinion in the valuation of the talent via the draft, and ADP is a critical tool in helping you to prepare for your draft.<br /><br />Remember this equation when thinking in terms of draft valuation: ADP / # of teams in league = round you should draft a player<br /><br />Don’t let ADP serve as the know-all, end-all…if you’re hot for a particular player, his ADP is a bit lower than where you’re at in your draft, the next player available at his position is a big drop off in talent and upside, and you feel like that person won’t be available next round, then reach a little if you feel you have to, but don’t make a habit of it. <br /><br /><br />3. Latest injuries/depth chart shifts/holdout news<br /><br />Stay aware - in today’s age of information, there is no reason we can’t get up-to-the-minute info from dozens of NFL beat writers around the league. If you have an internet connection, you should know exactly who is damaged goods by the time your draft comes around. <br /><br /><br />4. How will coaching changes affect the fantasy landscape? Mike Martz, new OC in Chicago, Mike Shanahan in Washington, Pete Carroll in Seattle, Chan Gailey in Buffalo, <br /><br />Martz should breathe life into a Chicago passing game that ranked 17th in the NFL in 2009. This is great news for owners of Jay Cutler in dynasty leagues, as this personnel hire will elevate Cutler’s fantasy stock, and should also benefit wideouts like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and possibly Earl Bennett. When Martz was coaching the St. Louis Rams in the late 1990s, the team, led by QB Kurt Warner, was known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and was arguably the most explosive offense of its time. Unfortunately for tight end Greg Olsen, Martz has a history of having his tight ends stay in to block more than running pass patterns, so I would advise staying away from Olsen this year.<br /><br />When Martz went to Detroit in 2006 to serve as offensive coordinator and quarterbackss coach, he helped 34-year-old quarterback Jon Kitna reach the 4000-yard plateau, and also launched the once-dormant Lions’ passing game to rank 7th in the NFL in 2006. <br /><br />Martz didn’t encounter the same type of success in San Francisco when he was hired to serve as the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2008. Equipped with a still-green Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O’Sullivan, the coach faced an uphill battle from a talent perspective before being replaced by Mike Singletary and a ball-control mindset midway through the season. <br /><br />When Shanahan coached the Broncos from 1995-2008, he was famous for employing a zone-blocking scheme that was popularized by other NFL teams, and for churning out the most unlikely of 1000-yard backs (see: Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson). Washington has three veteran backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Although Portis made a name for himself in Shanahan’s scheme in Denver before getting traded to Washington, he isn’t the same running back with fresh legs as he was seven years ago. For that matter, Parker or L.J. are also shells of their former selves, but Redskin Nation is hoping that the running-back-by-committee, led by the so-called “Mastermind”, produces an effective ground game in the nation’s capital in 2010.<br /><br />While it’s too soon to assess whether any of the Washington RBs will warrant fantasy consideration, one should expect Shanahan to employ a ground attack to the Redskin offense this season with three former Pro Bowlers all vying for carries.<br /><br />When the name Pete Carroll is mentioned, the first thought that comes to mind is the high-powered pro-style offense he employed at USC. Having coached a well-oiled scoring machine in New England from 1997-1999, Carroll knows the ins and outs of running a successful offensive scheme at any level.<br /><br />Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks’ 21st-ranked offense lacks many of the same effective tools that Carroll had in New England over ten years ago. Instead of Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin in their prime, Seattle will trot out 34-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who appears to be in the waning years of his playing career, and a RBBC consisting of Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and an injured Leon Washington (currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list, recovering from an awful compound leg fracture sustained last year).<br /><br />Expect Carroll to resuscitate the Seahawks’ passing attack in 2010. Wide receiver T. J. Houshmanzadeh should improve on a disappointing first season with Seattle, highly-touted Notre Dame rookie Golden Tate can provide explosiveness at flanker, and talented tight end John Carlson could hopefully find more consistency.<br /><br />The Buffalo Bills’ 30th-ranked offense in 2009 was so inept that watching them was well, offensive. Even though Buffalo was proactive in improving the team in the previous offseason by signing an over-the-hill WR Terrell Owens (who will not return to the team in 2010), they had been trying to unload embattled RB Marshawn Lynch during a critical time when they should be adding talent. <br /><br />Chan Gailey is the Bills’ new head coach whose most recent NFL experience was serving as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2008. Gailey was eventually stripped of play-calling duties by head coach Todd Haley in early 2009. Although he led the Cowboys to consecutive playoff runs in 1998-99, Gailey’s name doesn’t share the same cache in fantasy football circles as Martz or Shanahan. I wouldn’t get too excited about any Bills in 2010 except for perhaps RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in PPR leagues, or the Bills’ defense in occasional spot starts at home. <br /><br /><br />5. Assess your draft order – bookend pick? Middle pick? How will that affect your drafting?<br /><br />In your first season or two of fantasy football, you probably jumped for joy when the draft lottery resulted that you would have the No. 1 pick, and were outraged if you drew last. <br /><br />By the time you become a fantasy football veteran, you shouldn’t be too particular about what number pick you have. Most fantasy experts are able to field a great team regardless of where they are positioned in the draft order. However, you need to approach your player selections a bit differently with a bookend pick as opposed to if you had, say, the fifth or sixth pick.<br /><br />If you have the #1 pick in a serpentine-style draft (1,2,3,4,5,5,4,3,2,1), you’ll have to wait 19-22 picks until your next selection (depending on whether your league has 10 or 12 teams), so you need to stay aware of the remainder of talent levels per position compared to your team’s needs as you flesh out your roster throughout the draft.<br /><br />For example, if you have the #2 overall pick, and haven’t drafted a RB1 by the end of the second round, then you will likely experience a steep dropoff in available RB1’s as your league competitors stock their teams with the available backs. In other words, if you haven’t taken a RB by the third round, your team will likely already be behind the 8-ball in terms of missing production from a vital position with relatively few available superstars that can flourish on a weekly basis.<br /><br />You may have seen a draft expert or two categorize the NFL player pool into tiers, or echelons of talent. If you have a bookend pick (first or last in order), no quarterback on your roster yet, and your tier sheet tells you that there is only one top-echelon QB left, then you had better grab that last QB1 before someone else does with one of the next 19-22 picks. If you lag on addressing needs for your roster at the appropriate time, you may be forced to trot out a sub-par fantasy starter like, say, Kyle Orton as your starting signal caller every single week. Even if that available QB1 isn’t the specific QB1 you were targeting, it’s probably in your team’s best interest to take the best player available at that stage of the draft.<br /><br />Use these aforementioned tiers wisely, color-code them if necessary, and keep them updated in case there’s an injury late in the preseason that affects a player’s ADP. <br /><br />One more note regarding ADP and bookend picks: If you really want a particular player and don’t want to reach for a guy whose ADP is too low relative to the current round, but you’re also not sure if that player will fall to you in the following round, then go ahead and grab that guy as long as you’re not reaching more than 15-20 points higher than the player’s ADP. If this player fills a legitimate need as previously mentioned, then your team should make the acquisition. If said player’s ADP is more than 20 points higher, then he should theoretically fall to the next round.<br /><br /><br />6. Your drafting neighbor’s tendencies (favorite team, player, particular philosophies toward drafting)<br /><br />Based on drafts from previous seasons, does your drafting neighbor tend to draft receivers early? Does your drafting neighbor have a favorite NFL team, and may be inclined to draft one or several players from that team? Does your drafting neighbor tend to go for established Pro Bowlers or future HOFers? Or does he tend to target the trendy, high-upside but unproven diamonds in the rough that are getting love from FF pundits in the preseason? Furthermore, does your neighbor fall in line during runs on a position, or is he more cavalier in his drafting strategy? If three TEs are consecutively drafted in front of him, will he draft a fourth, or stay his own course?<br /><br />If you’ve played fantasy football with the current crop of players in previous seasons, then you already have data on how your league mates draft. Dig up the previous year’s draft results, and study the drafts of the two teams that draft before and after you. Pay attention to whether they drafted RBs early, QBs or WRs late, and then have a casual discussion about last year’s draft to see which picks they regretted making. This conversation should lend some insight as to how they’ll draft in 2010.<br /><br /><br />7. How to get under competitors’ skin during draft <br /><br />Almost every draft has “That guy”, the guy whose mindset seems to be more dedicated to irritating the league members than fielding a team from scratch. Don’t be afraid to be “That guy”. The only weapon you can use in a draft that doesn’t cross the line of good taste and physically impede your competitors’ strategy is the written word, but they can come in many different forms. Those of you fantasy football aficionados who moonlight in hacking into computers should refrain from uploading a virus to your competitors’ workstations, as this diabolical strategy is considered poor form.<br /><br />Some would label this strategy as “bush league”. That said, fantasy football is all about gamesmanship, so don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops for one of the most critical three-hour-stretches of the entire year. <br /><br />Chat / Video Chat – send your league members website links, articles, or video/Youtube links during your live draft in the draft chat room. The links, articles and video clips can be football or non-football-related. If they’re football-related, then they might get read and succeed in distracting your opponents. If it’s something else (except perhaps porn), your opponents may disregard your correspondence until after the draft. <br /><br />Email – Find out which of your league mates gets emails to their cellphones and check their phones for emails regularly, then take advantage of this distraction by emailing them with inane questions, quips, quotes and attachments. Generate distractions that will cause your competitors to lose focus. <br /><br />Telephone Call / Text – I wouldn’t waste too much time talking on the telephone because you may be just as easily distract yourself by the conversation instead of your opponents, or said opponent may simply ignore your call. Sending quick texts can affect your football league opponents’ concentration and hinder them from achieving their drafting objectives. <br /><br />Note on piece of paper – If you’re sharing the same physical room as your league mates, then go old school by bringing several pieces of paper and a thick marker. After you make your pick, and are not scheduled to make your next selection for several minutes, then you’ll have time to divert your opponents’ attention. Make a series of controversial notes or signs that can range from mocking competitors’ recent picks, to insulting members of their immediate family, to the most non-sequitor nonsense you can possibly conceive. <br /><br />In any case, this section is devoted to finding ways to push people’s buttons. If you know your league mates well enough, then you should have specific ideas of how to piss off your opponents, and throw them off their game.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-40459912444137246512010-07-01T17:10:00.000-07:002010-07-01T17:22:05.397-07:00IF THIS ISN’T YOUR FIRST DRAFT…After a year or two of playing fantasy football, you may feel like you’re learning the finer points of the game that separate the rookies from the veterans. Not unlike the mindset of a recent college graduate, you are now grasping how much there is still to learn on an annual basis about the nuances of assessing the talent pool, the revolving door of NFL head coaches and front office executives, and how this turnover affects said talent. <br /><br />In addition to the NFL’s daily offseason activities, you may realize that you have a lot of learn about the tendencies of the fellow fantasy general managers in your league that you’ll match wits with come draft day. <br /><br />1. Availability of talent per position<br /><br />Each preseason, fantasy football experts across the land assess which positions are rich in talent compared to other positions with less depth. Although there are obviously the same number of NFL players from year-to-year in the league (barring expansion, of course), some years produce, say fewer quality fantasy quarterbacks or running backs than others. <br /><br />Headed into the 2010 preseason, there are actually more startable fantasy QBs than a year ago. As an example, Houston’s Matt Schaub has approached stud status. Before the 2009 season, he was a high-upside pick that was considered a steal in the fifth or sixth round. In 2010, Schaub likely won’t last past the third round.<br /><br />Brett Favre was a speculative pick in what was supposed to be a run-based offense in Minnesota. Many prognosticators felt that, at this stage of Favre’s storied career, he would simply be a game manager whose primary responsibility would be handing off the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Assuming Favre doesn’t retire since he recently underwent ankle surgery, the 40-year-old provides QB1 upside, something we didn’t really see coming in 2009.<br /> <br />Other fantasy QBs that are new to the draft radar in 2010: <br /><br />Philadephia’s Kevin Kolb, who will take over under center for the traded Donovan McNabb. Kolb has performed brilliantly during brief stints on the field during his career, and Eagle Nation has been calling for him for years.<br /><br />Baltimore’s Joe Flacco really stepped up both his play and leadership in 2009, and with the addition of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin, he will certainly get drafted a lot earlier in 2010 than 2009.<br /><br />Matt Moore, Chad Henne, the aforementioned McNabb, and Jason Campbell all provide upgrades at quarterback for the Panthers, Dolphins, Redskins, and Raiders compared to these teams’ ‘09 starters.<br /><br />Former first-round picks Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith each took major steps forward towards establishing themselves as fantasy starters, and will command more dialogue as players to target as opposed to being players to settle for.<br /><br />2009 disappointments Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel are expected to bounce back after a rough first year with their new teams. Cutler will benefit from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s expansion of the playbook, and Cassel has highly-touted rookie wideout Dexter McCluster to add to a somewhat deep receiving corps that includes Dwayne Bowe, a rejuvenated Chris Chambers, and newly-acquired possession threat Jerheme Urban. <br /><br />Given the changing landscape in fantasy football with regards to quarterbacks, one notices that there are more startable QBs than a year ago. For this reason, you should apply principles of supply and demand to your draft. Since there is a bigger supply of signal callers, you should address other positions with scarcer talent before QB. In other words, wait a round or two to pick your QBs, and grab an elite RB or WR with that earlier pick instead, especially in leagues that only start one quarterback per fantasy team.<br /><br /><br />2. ADP rankings<br /><br />Do ADP’s reflected in FF publications correctly address your league’s scoring system?<br /><br />Before you blindly trust the Average Draft Position Rankings, make sure that the list that you are referencing is designed for the same type of league that you are in. If you are in a “touchdown league”, where the vast majority of points scored is from trips to the end zone, then you shouldn’t use points-per-reception ADP Rankings for your draft. Or, if you are planning for a PPR draft, don’t use a cheat sheet for yardage-heavy leagues, as the player valuations can alter completely (e.g. Matt Forte)<br /><br />Cross-reference ADP with where you are in draft<br /><br />During your draft, you’ll see players that you’ve been targeting all preseason, and are hot to snatch that player for your team. Before you click ‘draft player’, take a look at your ADP rankings. If that player’s ADP Ranking is, say, 15-20 points lower than your current draft position, then you might want to wait a round, as there is a decent chance that your guy will be available in the next round. <br /><br />For example, let’s say you’re a big Bret Favre fan, and that he’s coming back in 2010 to play for the Vikings again. During the fourth round of a 12-team league, you’re tempted to take Favre as your QB1 after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo have been selected. If Favre’s ADP is around, say, 92, and you’re only on the 43rd pick, then you should know that you can probably wait on Favre for a couple rounds. However, if you have to have him, then take him with a seventh-rounder, as Favre theoretically should be available then.<br /><br />ADP is compiled from averaging out hundreds of drafts from all over the fantasy football industry. The most knowledgeable fantasy pundits essentially voice their opinion in the valuation of the talent via the draft, and ADP is a critical tool in helping you to prepare for your draft.<br /><br />Remember this equation when thinking in terms of draft valuation: ADP / # of teams in league = round you should draft a player<br /><br />Don’t let ADP serve as the know-all, end-all…if you’re hot for a particular player, his ADP is a bit lower than where you’re at in your draft, the next player available at his position is a big drop off in talent and upside, and you feel like that person won’t be available next round, then reach a little if you feel you have to, but don’t make a habit of it. <br /><br /><br />3. Latest injuries/depth chart shifts/holdout news<br /><br />Stay aware - in today’s age of information, there is no reason we can’t get up-to-the-minute info from dozens of NFL beat writers around the league. If you have an internet connection, you should know exactly who is damaged goods by the time your draft comes around. <br /><br /><br />4. How will coaching changes affect the fantasy landscape? Mike Martz, new OC in Chicago, Mike Shanahan in Washington, Pete Carroll in Seattle, Chan Gailey in Buffalo, <br /><br />Martz should breathe life into a Chicago passing game that ranked 17th in the NFL in 2009. This is great news for owners of Jay Cutler in dynasty leagues, as this personnel hire will elevate Cutler’s fantasy stock, and should also benefit wideouts like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and possibly Earl Bennett. When Martz was coaching the St. Louis Rams in the late 1990s, the team, led by QB Kurt Warner, was known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and was arguably the most explosive offense of its time. Unfortunately for tight end Greg Olsen, Martz has a history of having his tight ends stay in to block more than running pass patterns, so I would advise staying away from Olsen this year.<br /><br />When Martz went to Detroit in 2006 to serve as offensive coordinator and quarterbackss coach, he helped 34-year-old quarterback Jon Kitna reach the 4000-yard plateau, and also launched the once-dormant Lions’ passing game to rank 7th in the NFL in 2006. <br /><br />Martz didn’t encounter the same type of success in San Francisco when he was hired to serve as the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2008. Equipped with a still-green Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O’Sullivan, the coach faced an uphill battle from a talent perspective before being replaced by Mike Singletary and a ball-control mindset midway through the season. <br /><br />When Shanahan coached the Broncos from 1995-2008, he was famous for employing a zone-blocking scheme that was popularized by other NFL teams, and for churning out the most unlikely of 1000-yard backs (see: Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson). Washington has three veteran backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Although Portis made a name for himself in Shanahan’s scheme in Denver before getting traded to Washington, he isn’t the same running back with fresh legs as he was seven years ago. For that matter, Parker or L.J. are also shells of their former selves, but Redskin Nation is hoping that the running-back-by-committee, led by the so-called “Mastermind”, produces an effective ground game in the nation’s capital in 2010.<br /><br />While it’s too soon to assess whether any of the Washington RBs will warrant fantasy consideration, one should expect Shanahan to employ a ground attack to the Redskin offense this season with three former Pro Bowlers all vying for carries.<br /><br />When the name Pete Carroll is mentioned, the first thought that comes to mind is the high-powered pro-style offense he employed at USC. Having coached a well-oiled scoring machine in New England from 1997-1999, Carroll knows the ins and outs of running a successful offensive scheme at any level.<br /><br />Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks’ 21st-ranked offense lacks many of the same effective tools that Carroll had in New England over ten years ago. Instead of Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin in their prime, Seattle will trot out 34-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who appears to be in the waning years of his playing career, and a RBBC consisting of Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and an injured Leon Washington (currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list, recovering from an awful compound leg fracture sustained last year).<br /><br />Expect Carroll to resuscitate the Seahawks’ passing attack in 2010. Wide receiver T. J. Houshmanzadeh should improve on a disappointing first season with Seattle, highly-touted Notre Dame rookie Golden Tate can provide explosiveness at flanker, and talented tight end John Carlson could hopefully find more consistency.<br /><br />The Buffalo Bills’ 30th-ranked offense in 2009 was so inept that watching them was well, offensive. Even though Buffalo was proactive in improving the team in the previous offseason by signing an over-the-hill WR Terrell Owens (who will not return to the team in 2010), they had been trying to unload embattled RB Marshawn Lynch during a critical time when they should be adding talent. <br /><br />Chan Gailey is the Bills’ new head coach whose most recent NFL experience was serving as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2008. Gailey was eventually stripped of play-calling duties by head coach Todd Haley in early 2009. Although he led the Cowboys to consecutive playoff runs in 1998-99, Gailey’s name doesn’t share the same cache in fantasy football circles as Martz or Shanahan. I wouldn’t get too excited about any Bills in 2010 except for perhaps RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in PPR leagues, or the Bills’ defense in occasional spot starts at home. <br /><br /><br />5. Assess your draft order – bookend pick? Middle pick? How will that affect your drafting?<br /><br />In your first season or two of fantasy football, you probably jumped for joy when the draft lottery resulted that you would have the No. 1 pick, and were outraged if you drew last. <br /><br />By the time you become a fantasy football veteran, you shouldn’t be too particular about what number pick you have. Most fantasy experts are able to field a great team regardless of where they are positioned in the draft order. However, you need to approach your player selections a bit differently with a bookend pick as opposed to if you had, say, the fifth or sixth pick.<br /><br />If you have the #1 pick in a serpentine-style draft (1,2,3,4,5,5,4,3,2,1), you’ll have to wait 19-22 picks until your next selection (depending on whether your league has 10 or 12 teams), so you need to stay aware of the remainder of talent levels per position compared to your team’s needs as you flesh out your roster throughout the draft.<br /><br />For example, if you have the #2 overall pick, and haven’t drafted a RB1 by the end of the second round, then you will likely experience a steep dropoff in available RB1’s as your league competitors stock their teams with the available backs. In other words, if you haven’t taken a RB by the third round, your team will likely already be behind the 8-ball in terms of missing production from a vital position with relatively few available superstars that can flourish on a weekly basis.<br /><br />You may have seen a draft expert or two categorize the NFL player pool into tiers, or echelons of talent. If you have a bookend pick (first or last in order), no quarterback on your roster yet, and your tier sheet tells you that there is only one top-echelon QB left, then you had better grab that last QB1 before someone else does with one of the next 19-22 picks. If you lag on addressing needs for your roster at the appropriate time, you may be forced to trot out a sub-par fantasy starter like, say, Kyle Orton as your starting signal caller every single week. Even if that available QB1 isn’t the specific QB1 you were targeting, it’s probably in your team’s best interest to take the best player available at that stage of the draft.<br /><br />Use these aforementioned tiers wisely, color-code them if necessary, and keep them updated in case there’s an injury late in the preseason that affects a player’s ADP. <br /><br />One more note regarding ADP and bookend picks: If you really want a particular player and don’t want to reach for a guy whose ADP is too low relative to the current round, but you’re also not sure if that player will fall to you in the following round, then go ahead and grab that guy as long as you’re not reaching more than 15-20 points higher than the player’s ADP. If this player fills a legitimate need as previously mentioned, then your team should make the acquisition. If said player’s ADP is more than 20 points higher, then he should theoretically fall to the next round.<br /><br /><br />6. Your drafting neighbor’s tendencies (favorite team, player, particular philosophies toward drafting)<br /><br />Based on drafts from previous seasons, does your drafting neighbor tend to draft receivers early? Does your drafting neighbor have a favorite NFL team, and may be inclined to draft one or several players from that team? Does your drafting neighbor tend to go for established Pro Bowlers or future HOFers? Or does he tend to target the trendy, high-upside but unproven diamonds in the rough that are getting love from FF pundits in the preseason? Furthermore, does your neighbor fall in line during runs on a position, or is he more cavalier in his drafting strategy? If three TEs are consecutively drafted in front of him, will he draft a fourth, or stay his own course?<br /><br />If you’ve played fantasy football with the current crop of players in previous seasons, then you already have data on how your league mates draft. Dig up the previous year’s draft results, and study the drafts of the two teams that draft before and after you. Pay attention to whether they drafted RBs early, QBs or WRs late, and then have a casual discussion about last year’s draft to see which picks they regretted making. This conversation should lend some insight as to how they’ll draft in 2010.<br /><br /><br />7. How to get under competitors’ skin during draft <br /><br />Almost every draft has “That guy”, the guy whose mindset seems to be more dedicated to irritating the league members than fielding a team from scratch. Don’t be afraid to be “That guy”. The only weapon you can use in a draft that doesn’t cross the line of good taste and physically impede your competitors’ strategy is the written word, but they can come in many different forms. Those of you fantasy football aficionados who moonlight in hacking into computers should refrain from uploading a virus to your competitors’ workstations, as this diabolical strategy is considered poor form.<br /><br />Some would label this strategy as “bush league”. That said, fantasy football is all about gamesmanship, so don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops for one of the most critical three-hour-stretches of the entire year. <br /><br />Chat / Video Chat – send your league members website links, articles, or video/Youtube links during your live draft in the draft chat room. The links, articles and video clips can be football or non-football-related. If they’re football-related, then they might get read and succeed in distracting your opponents. If it’s something else (except perhaps porn), your opponents may disregard your correspondence until after the draft. <br /><br />Email – Find out which of your league mates gets emails to their cellphones and check their phones for emails regularly, then take advantage of this distraction by emailing them with inane questions, quips, quotes and attachments. Generate distractions that will cause your competitors to lose focus. <br /><br />Telephone Call / Text – I wouldn’t waste too much time talking on the telephone because you may be just as easily distract yourself by the conversation instead of your opponents, or said opponent may simply ignore your call. Sending quick texts can affect your football league opponents’ concentration and hinder them from achieving their drafting objectives. <br /><br />Note on piece of paper – If you’re sharing the same physical room as your league mates, then go old school by bringing several pieces of paper and a thick marker. After you make your pick, and are not scheduled to make your next selection for several minutes, then you’ll have time to divert your opponents’ attention. Make a series of controversial notes or signs that can range from mocking competitors’ recent picks, to insulting members of their immediate family, to the most non-sequitor nonsense you can possibly conceive. <br /><br />In any case, this section is devoted to finding ways to push people’s buttons. If you know your league mates well enough, then you should have specific ideas of how to piss off your opponents, and throw them off their game.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-8356697099968442562010-06-18T09:58:00.000-07:002010-06-18T10:16:45.225-07:00READ THIS BEFORE YOUR FIRST FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT…For those about to draft, we salute you.<br /><br />If this is your inaugural season of fantasy football, welcome to the club. Unfortunately, the chances are that your inexperience has put you a bit behind the competition in terms of experience within your league, but I have good news for you: this beloved sport, try as we might to pore over stats to essentially predict the future and make the playoffs, is mostly luck.<br /><br />That said, this guide should assist you in effectively preparing for your draft by teaching you the correct ways to assess talent, not fall prey to common rookie mistakes, and stock your team with the necessary depth so that even when your squad is beset by injuries and bye weeks, you’ll be able to persevere without having to mercilessly pilfer the waiver wire.<br /> <br /><br />1. TARGET SCORERS AND PASS-CATCHING RBs<br /><br />In order for your fantasy team to accrue stats, your players need to be in the huddle and receive necessary opportunities to score touchdowns, yards, and receptions (receptions are especially important in point-per-reception leagues, or PPR leagues).<br /><br />Most fantasy football leagues place a statistical premium on touchdowns, typically the most climactic scoring event in the game. You need to find skill players who are not only slated to play as much as possible on their respective teams, you need to specifically target the guys who score the most TDs. Anyone can check last year’s touchdown leaders, and have a general idea of who gets the rock into the end zone.<br /><br />However, in recent years, a plethora of statistical <a href="http://www.fantasyfootballtrader.com/2009_Red_Zone_Touch_Percentage_by_team.html">information</a> has been made available that provides research on which players received most opportunities to score inside the red zone (20-yard line), as well as depth chart battles on each team’s training camp, and information on which players have impressed their respective coaching staff to the point where the starter in 2010 is different from whoever was first-string at the beginning of 2009. Some examples include Arizona RB Beanie Wells, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles, and Dallas WR Miles Austin. Each of these players have significantly more value than they did a year ago due to their boost in playing time (in Charles’ situation, his primary competition for reps in 2009 is no longer on the team), and also for their “nose for the end zone.”<br /><br />During training camp, look to see which players are impressing in camp, as well as which incumbent starters are disappointing their coaches with injuries, contract holdouts, an inability to grasp the offensive philosophy, or simply lackluster play. Whoever stands to gain from a starter’s missed playing time should be someone you at least place on your radar, if not target.<br /><br />If you're in a PPR league, you should look for running backs that have soft hands, and that registered at least 40-45 receptions last season. Although receptions typically count for only one point in most leagues, these catches can easily add up, and turn an ostensibly underachieving RB into a fantasy commodity. Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who averaged 60 catches each of the last two years in spite of gradually decreasing playing time, is a prime example of this. An extra 60 receptions typically translates to the fantasy equivalent of 10-12 touchdowns. Even if you're not in a PPR league, the receiving yards and TDs that RBs accumulate will add to their value, regardless of whether receptions count or not.<br /><br /><br /><br />2. AGE <br /><br />Football is a unique sport in that the shelf life for players is far less than other sports like baseball and hockey. Within football are different age ranges of effectiveness per position. For example, a 34-year-old placekicker or quarterback is much more effective at that stage in his career than a 34-year-old running back or wide receiver. Below is a list of different position requirements for fantasy football, followed by the average age range of effectiveness. Obviously, there are occasional exceptions in wide receivers who play well into their thirties, but you’d be better off following these age guidelines:<br /><br />QUARTERBACK: (24-35) – Typically, quarterbacks need two to three years to get properly acclimated to the speed, intensity, and complex schemes of the NFL, and even highly-coveted first-round picks experience a learning curve. 2009 was no exception with rookie QBs Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez taking their lumps in their first season. If you're thinking of drafting 2010 No. 1 NFL draft pick Sam Bradford as your QB1, think again.<br /><br />Drafting rookie quarterbacks is seldom advised, as it’s the most difficult position to grasp at the highest level. Most rookies are trying so hard not to make a mistake and let their team down, that statistical performance takes a backseat to more pressing issues like not getting hurt, not turning the ball over, continuing to learn the offense, and leading the team.<br /><br />Once a QB reaches his second or third year as a starter, his coaching staff has likely gained substantial confidence in his abilities, and opens up the offense for more explosive formations (like four-and five-wideouts) and deep passing.<br /><br />On the other end of the spectrum, most quarterbacks have typically taken such a beating over the course of their career, that by the time they hit their mid-30s (like 2009 example Kurt Warner), their constitution erodes to a point where they’re one blindsided sack or pancake block from retirement.<br /><br />Of course, 40-year-old Brett Favre continues to buck all trends, but quarterbacks like Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck become more injury-prone and less athletically gifted as the enter their age-35 season.<br /><br /> <br /><br />RUNNING BACK: (21-29)<br /><br />No position in fantasy football experiences rookie success as much as running back. Their fresh legs are welcomed into the league, only to be pulverized by defenders dozens of times per game. Even as running-backs-by-committee continue to permeate the league, an inescapable truth of football is that a RB who has been getting 200+ carries for 7-8 years has likely lost significant tread from his proverbial tires, and doesn’t carry the same explosiveness in his early 30s as he did in his early 20s.<br /><br />Even though running back is an extremely important position, rookies rely on their instincts and raw athletic ability to gain tough yards. Unlike young quarterbacks who need to learn their team’s entire offense, how to read NFL defenses, each of their receivers’ routes, all while not getting killed or benched, running backs can simply focus on hitting the correct hole with the ball, catching the occasional screen pass, and picking up blitzers.<br /><br />In short, young RBs have a lot less on their plate than young QBs, and tend to flourish at an earlier age because of their fresh legs. Conversely, QBs take longer to learn their position, but can play well into their 30s while retaining most of their athletic abilities. <br /><br />In 2009, we witnessed an expectedly rapid decline from 30-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson as the Chargers RB1 due to his huge NFL workload (only one season with just under 300 carries) that began back in 2001. Although his owners from previous seasons adored him for his past production, there is no way that LT can regain the burst from his first years in the NFL, even if he has an elite Jets offensive line opening holes for him in 2010.<br /><br />Strictly based on age, another Pro Bowler from the past to avoid is 30-year-old Brian Westbrook. Although Westbrook was a stud in the fantasy football landscape as an Eagle only two years ago, his newfound propensity for concussions coupled with his tired legs make him a far less attractive option moving forward.<br /><br /> <br /><br />WIDE RECEIVER (23-33)<br /><br />Wide receiver is a bit trickier of a position than running back when determining a player’s maturity level. Once every few years, players like Terry Glenn, Randy Moss, and Eddie Royal take the league by storm in their inaugural season, but the vast majority of young wideouts take a year or two to get adjusted to the NFL level.<br /><br />As far as your draft goes, you should generally stay away from rookie receivers, as the transition from college to the NFL is rarely seamless.<br /><br />On the other end of the age spectrum for wideouts, 33 is about the age you should expect their talent level to taper off.<br /><br />Although exceptional players like Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Isaac Bruce defied conventional logic by excelling at this extremely competitive position well into their 30s, these highly-disciplined athletes provide the exception more than the norm.<br /><br />Note that Ward and the recently-retired Bruce are/were considered possession receivers, and the bread-and-butter of their game is catching short-to-medium passes, not running fly patterns. On the other hand, Joey Galloway and Torry Holt, two aging wideouts whose ability to run streaks and burn defensive backs are a shadow of ten years ago, are two examples of players to avoid in spite of their name value.<br /><br />In short, possession receivers can play longer careers than “burner”-type wideouts.<br /><br /> <br /><br />TIGHT END (23-33)<br /><br />Typically, a tight end's primary responsibility to his NFL team is to block first, then catch passes, which is quite the contrary to your fantasy team. This priority shift helps to explain why tight ends are, on the whole, not as valuable as RBs and WRs. Although NFL tight ends often shine against vanilla college defenses, these same athletes usually require at least a year to properly adjust to complex blocking schemes in the NFL, and prove they can pick up blitzing linebackers and defensive backs. <br /><br />While physical specimens like Tony Gonzalez continue to boggle the mind as to the longevity of his prime, most TEs wear down from years in the trenches by age 32. <br /><br />Except for Gonzalez, stick with non-rookie tight ends in their 20s.<br /><br /> <br /><br />KICKER (23-45)<br /><br /> As you might expect, most of the rules for the rest of the fantasy football talent pool don’t really apply to kickers. One aspect of that maxim is in terms of age, which typically translates to experience and mental fortitude in high-pressure situations. Of course, there are exceptions like the Saints’ Garrett Hartley, who took over for then-45-year old John Carney in 2009. At the time the torch was passed between the kickers last season, Carney could still nail field goals, although his range was limited compared to when he was a Charger ten years ago. By the time Hartley took over kicking duties for the high-flying Saints, he was instantly a fantasy commodity given that he has more scoring chances than, say, the Browns' kicker. But Hartley’s abilities alone don’t necessarily make him a good fantasy kicker, the team he plays for is they key to his value. This concept segues into my next installment in preparing for a draft: schemes.<br /><br /> <br /><br /> 3. SCHEME<br /><br />As you know, many NFL teams have high-powered offenses that churn out points on a consistent basis. One of my all-time favorite schemes was the Run N’ Shoot that the Houston Oilers employed in the early 1990s. The Run N’ Shoot was a four-wide, spread offense that turned quarterback Warren Moon into a fantasy god, gave each of the starting four Houston receivers legitimate degrees of fantasy relevance, and still left enough production for the running game.<br /><br />While Houston lost the Oilers to Tennessee years ago, the city still has a high-powered offense to call its own in the Texans. QB Matt Schaub leads this well-oiled passing machine, as he has a multitude of weapons in Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels at his disposal. Without the safety net of an effective running game (the Texans’ lead rusher in 2009 was Steve Slaton, who amassed 437 yards for a putrid 3.3 yards-per-carry average), Schaub and Texans were forced to throw early and often, regardless of the score. Based on this logic, you’d be better off drafting the Texans’ or Saints’ second receiver before you draft, say, Buffalo’s WR1. <br /><br />You should target players on teams that score lots of points, because points on the scoreboard usually translate to fantasy points. If you own Kansas City QB Matt Cassel, and all you know is that the Chiefs lost 31-6, you can bet that Cassel had a crappy fantasy day. <br /><br />On the other hand, you want running backs that play on teams that emphasize the run in their offense. Teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Titans were atop the league in team carries in 2009, and this <a href="http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?offensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&archive=false&seasonType=REG&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&d-447263-n=1&season=2009&qualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=2&role=TM&d-447263-p=1">statistic</a> serves as a realistic benchmark of how the offense will likely be divvied up this season.<br /><br /> <br /><br />4. TIMESHARE SITUATION<br /><br />There are two schools of thought regarding competition for a starting job. On one hand, a starter with no competition for a job might get settled into a complacent environment, and a lack of motivation could reflect in his overall performance as the season progresses. Of course, this starter would receive the vast majority of touches or looks compared to his backup, so there is a great deal of solace in taking a player whose job is not in jeopardy, and won’t be riding the pine too often.<br /><br />On the other hand, nothing is more frustrating than drafting a running back who turns out to be nothing more than a cog in a running-back-by-committee, which has become an emerging trend in the NFL in the last few years in an effort to keep backs healthy.<br /><br />Sometimes, a RBBC can yield multiple fantasy threats, as had been evidenced during the Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew years in Jacksonville, or perhaps the current situation in Dallas that features three talented running backs in Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones.<br /><br /> I wouldn’t use a top-three pick on any of the Dallas RBs in light of the crowded backfield, but given the rampant injuries that hits each NFL team, there will probably be enough touches in the Cowboys’ explosive offense to get Barber, Choice and Jones all involved at some point in the 16-game season. Regardless, a RBBC not only keeps running backs motivated as there is constantly someone dipping into their carries, but it also keeps your RB healthy in the long run.<br /><br />An NFL team not having to rely on one back to carry the ball 30 times means that while you’ll be disappointed that your RB didn’t get all the carries in Week 2, there is a greater likelihood he’ll be healthier come fantasy playoff time in Week 14 if his workload is limited to 15-20 carries each game instead of 25-30. Rams RB Steven Jackson, who averaged almost 22 carries per game through Week 15, betrayed his owners by sitting out the all-important Week 16, most leagues' fantasy Super Bowl. Had the Rams not pounded Jackson and gave some of his carries to a backup, perhaps Jackson wouldn't have had to sit out Week 16.<br /><br />When it comes to quarterbacks, you only want to target starting signal callers who receive virtually all the snaps for their team, save for a small handful of trick plays. As an example, I would avoid Cleveland’s murky QB situation in 2010 as Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Josh Cribbs are all expected to get significant time under center in various packages, making none of them attractive fantasy options. As the old saying goes in football, “If you have two starting QBs on your team, you really have zero.” <br /><br /> <br /><br />5. INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS: STAY AWAY, OR VALUE PICK?<br /><br />Injuries are an inescapable part of the brutal sport of football. Although it’s usually better to stay away from drafting injured players before the season starts, you might be able to occasionally find value in a quality player afflicted with an injury that every other team in your league is afraid to take a chance on. Typically, you’ll want to simply avoid injured players altogether, but once in a while, an opportunity falls in your lap during a draft. Here are the key body parts that you should check for injury at each position that should raise a red flag about how likely that player is to contribute on the field. <br /><br />QB – throwing arm, shoulder, elbow, wrist, neck, knee, eye, ribs, head (concussion)<br /><br />RB – knee, ankle, neck, foot, toe, hand, calf, ribs, hamstring, head (concussion)<br /><br />WR – knee, ankle, foot, neck, toe, hand, finger, calf, ribs, hamstring, hip, head (concussion)<br /><br />TE – knee, ankle, foot, toe, neck, hand, finger, chest, ribs, hamstring, hip, head (concussion)<br /><br />K – leg, hamstring, calf, hip, toe, foot (pretty much anything below the waist)<br /><br />The aforementioned list of injuries pertains to body parts critical to playing football. If a top-tier receiver is still undrafted in the sixth round because he’ll miss the first couple games due to a sprained elbow, then don’t be afraid to draft him, as his elbow will likely heal in time, and won’t affect his route running or catching abilities once he’s healthy.<br /><br />If a player is on the dreaded Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP), this means that player, per NFL mandate, cannot play before Week 6. Typically, players on the PUP list weren’t healthy enough to practice during training camp, and will take longer to get settled within the team’s depth chart than if that player simply came back from a routine injury. Except for rare circumstances, you should simply avoid drafting anyone who spent Weeks 1-6 on the PUP list.<br /><br />Suspensions also tend to get players buried on draft day cheat sheets. Just because Jets WR Santonio Holmes is scheduled for a four-game suspension doesn’t mean he can’t be a fantasy contributor once he is eligible to return in Week 5. At least with suspensions, players simply sit there and stew, motivated to get out of the coach’s doghouse and back onto the field as opposed to sitting in the trainer’s room, rehabbing a troublesome injury.<br /><br />If you’ve got the available bench space, don’t be afraid to take a chance on a high-upside guy like Holmes, or even Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who would be drafted a round or two earlier were he not being punished by the NFL for past misdeeds.<br /><br /> <br /><br />6. NFL SCHEDULE<br /><br />There are a few things to keep in mind when factoring the NFL Regular Season Schedule into whom you draft for your team. First, you should assess which divisions are stronger than others. Based on the 2009 regular season standings, the AFC South garnered 38 wins, which is more than any other division. Meanwhile, the AFC West only won 30 total games, making it an inferior division in 2009 than the former.<br /><br />Of course, the talent levels within the division fluctuate from year to year, but not drastically. Whoever was awesome in 2009 won’t be horrible in 2010, and vice versa. The NFC East is consistently one of the strongest divisions while the NFC West is considered cupcake by comparison.<br /><br />If you draft players within the lackluster NFC West, that means that player gets six intra-division games against teams that are traditionally soft on defense like the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks. However, if you draft a player on the Redskins, you can look forward to two daunting games against the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys each year.<br /><br />Another thing to bear in mind regarding the regular season schedule when drafting your team is each team’s bye week. Some people don’t mind having all their players sitting out the same week, as it’s easier to simply write off one bad week as a loss, and return to almost full strength with a full roster intact each other week.<br /><br />(Most) Others like to stagger their players’ bye weeks so that their roster has enough depth from week to week, and they’re not forced to go scavenging the waiver wire for a WR4 when they have three wideouts all on bye at once. Either strategy can work for you or against you, but I typically prefer to draft players whose bye weeks stagger, as it provides greater overall peace of mind.<br /><br />The last thing to take into account when determining which players have a favorable fantasy postseason schedule, which are Weeks 14-16. Even though you’re looking four months into the future, this observation could play a critical role down the stretch should your team reach the fantasy playoffs.<br /><br />If you’re on the fence about two prospective players to draft, look at their Week 14-16 opponents. For example, after glancing at the 2010 schedule, I see Tampa Bay is scheduled to play @ Washington, and then host Detroit and Seattle the following weeks. Barring a huge turnaround from the Redskins’, Lions’ or Seahawks’ defense in 2010, the Buccaneers have what can be considered a favorable fantasy playoff schedule.<br /><br />Make no mistake, I’m not telling you to run out and draft the entire Buccaneers’ lackluster offense, but fantasy playoff scheduling is simply another criterion to keep in the back of your mind when you’re forced to make tough decisions during your draft.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-26975929285374090632009-11-11T09:56:00.000-08:002009-11-11T09:57:33.058-08:00YOU WILL SURVIVE…AFTER READING THISSurvivor Leagues present a stark contrast to traditional fantasy football. When you’re in a survivor league, you take a step back from rooting for individual players from different teams to accrue statistics, and return to cheering an entire NFL team to victory. While these types of leagues are loosely considered “fantasy football”, they’re more closely related to football handicapping. Your sole objective is to pick the team that’s sure to win – a difficult task in the topsy-turvy NFL, where a double-digit favorite seems to lose almost every week. Unlike a shorter season in a traditional head-to-head league, survivor leagues are played out through the end of the regular season, providing seventeen opportunities to slip up on the wrong pick. Choosing the right team is a tricky science, as you can only bask in the comfort of one of the elite teams once per season. Below is a checklist to run through before finally deciding which pick you’re going to make each week:<br /><br />1. ALMOST ALWAYS PICK A HOME TEAM – Every week, you have an opportunity to pick from 13-16 home teams, depending on bye weeks. Any team can unexpectedly lose on the road to an inferior opponent, so I would avoid all road teams to be safe. The only exception would be if the Colts or Saints went to a city like Detroit, whose stadium didn’t carry a significant home field advantage.<br /><br />2. TEAM OVERALL QUALITY – Before you select your home team for the week, check several factors to determine exactly how good they are. What’s their record? What are the records of teams they have beaten and teams they lost to? Have they beaten quality opponents? What are this team’s strengths and weaknesses? How do those strengths and weaknesses stack up against their upcoming opponent? If your team has a winning record, but ranks in the bottom 10 in pass defense, you may want to avoid matchups against teams that are able to launch a formidable aerial attack. This leads us to the next point…<br /><br />3. WHO ARE THEY PLAYING? While checking the record of your team’s opponent is important, you should also look at other factors as well. Has this opponent been winning lately? Is momentum on their side? What is their injury situation? Does your team’s opponent play well on the road? Have these two teams had an extensive recent history? Do the head coaches know each other well? Are there players on either team that previously played for the opponent that might lend insight to the other team’s game plan? <br /><br />4. BYE WEEK – Bye weeks are a welcome respite from the brutality of regular poundings that the NFL’s players dole out on each other. Teams tend to play better coming off a bye week, as they are not only well-rested, but have also had an extra seven days to prepare for their upcoming opponent.<br /><br />5. CHECK THE POINT SPREAD OF THE GAME – While the point spread does not always prognosticate the outcome of a game, it can be an effective indicator that sums up the talent level of the competition. The spread also factors in a myriad of variables including injuries, team momentum, home field advantage, and game history of previous matchups. Underdogs will cover the spread in their fair share of games in the NFL, but more often than naught, you’re better off picking a favorite to win the game outright, which is the objective in Survivor League Football. <br /><br />6. CHECK INJURY REPORTS – It is important to look at injuries to key skill players like quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. But sometimes a casual football fan will overlook critical injuries that fly under the radar, like lineman and impact defensive personnel. If you’re leaning toward selecting a home team that has a starting left tackle who is questionable or doubtful, and is scheduled to face a team with a strong pass rush, then you may want to consider making another choice. If a Pro Bowl shutdown corner is inactive, and his backup is a free-agent rookie that gets frequently burned by receivers, then that team should be avoided.<br /><br />7. CHECK WEATHER REPORT – Unless you picked a team playing their game indoors, make sure to check the weather forecast before kickoff on Sunday morning. Teams that play in a pass-based offense will have less success in poor weather, and the scores in bad weather tend to be closer. <br /> <br />8. PLAY FOR THIS WEEK, DON’T LOOK AHEAD – Since you can only pick teams once, it can be tempting to check the coming weeks on the schedule. The Colts look great this week, but they may also look even better three weeks from now. Don’t get cute trying to line up your entire season of pick selections, as injuries and personnel moves can change the complexion of a team in the NFL from week to week. In other words, what may seem like a good pick three weeks from now may not be a great pick after the next two games take their toll. Play for now, because if you don’t, you may not make it to next week.<br /><br />9. WHO’S GIVEN UP? – Towards the end of the regular season, you’ll notice that you already picked virtually every dominant team, and are no longer able to simply glance at the remaining teams, and find a winner. You might even be tempted to pick a team with a losing record. There comes a point in the season in Survivor Leagues where the worst teams who are awarded the highest draft picks appear to be playing without a competitive fire; as if they’re trying to lose! Not every team with a horrible record necessarily gives up on the season. But teams that bench established and experienced veterans in place of project rookies at key positions are the teams who are more concerned with developing young talent than winning ball games. These are the types of teams whose upcoming opponents you should target, even if the opponent isn’t playoff bound.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-43405035044416654872009-11-03T13:04:00.000-08:002009-11-03T16:18:46.671-08:00SEASON AT A CROSSROADSYour team is, as they say, “in the mix” at 4-4. Only five or six weeks remain until the fantasy postseason, and you want to do everything in your power to make sure your team doesn’t miss the playoffs. While fantasy football is essentially 60% luck, there are several steps you can take to be proactive so that you’ll still be in contention for your league title come Week 14:<br /><br />1. SCOUR THE WAIVER WIRE – Not that everybody doesn’t already do this, but at this stage in the season, you need to form contingency plans in case one of your studs gets hurt. If you lack depth at a particular position, then focus on grabbing the best available talent in the free agent pool at that position with the easiest upcoming schedule so that you’ll be able to make an informed decision. HINT: Go to your free agent pool, and use the sort functions to tell which free agents have scored the most points in your league’s scoring system. This is typically done by clicking on the words “Fantasy Points” once you’re on the page that lists free agents. You’ll notice that the players are rearranged with the most prolific scorers at the top, going top to bottom. But don’t just grab the players with the most points. You should look at their injury status, upcoming schedule, and whether there are any injury issues with this player’s teammates. For example, if you’re thinking about picking up Terrell Owens, who was dropped in many leagues, you should also take note that his schedule looks somewhat favorable down the stretch. Furthermore, Buffalo’s starting QB Trent Edwards is coming back from his concussion, and this could mean a return to decent production for T.O (or, he just might be washed up). Between injury history, anticipated inclement weather at certain stadiums, and the overall play of certain teams as the season winds down (HINT: avoid ALL Browns!), you should have enough information at your fingertips to make an informed, if not the right, decision on who’s best for your fantasy team down the stretch. <br /><br />2. THINK TWO, SOMETIMES THREE WEEKS AHEAD – If you have six WRs, five RB, or three TEs, and one of those players is someone you wouldn’t start unless you have a slew of bye/injury issues, then there is probably a chance that this player would sit in the free agent pool and go unclaimed by another team. But you know who won’t go unclaimed? A defense who is scheduled to play the Rams/Brown/Lions/Yuccaneers at home in two weeks! Before kickoff on Sunday morning, before every free agent goes back on waivers, you need to look 2-3 weeks ahead, dump your WR6/RB5/TE3, and grab the team defense that plays well at home with the tastiest matchup against a league doormat. This will keep you ahead of the curve, as your league maters will also start looking more towards future matchups as opposed to the quality of team defenses they start. Example: you have Denver defense, but Seattle D at home against Detroit Week 9 may be a better fantasy start than Broncos Defense playing against the Steelers on Monday Night.<br /><br />3. ASSESS WHO MAKES A GOOD TRADE PARTNER – Chances are the trade deadline in your league is drawing nigh, and there are other teams in your league looking to make that one trade which will help put them in the playoff picture. Fantasy team owners are more willing to make a trade at this stage in the season since they know who on their team is panning out as opposed to whom they can safely declare a bust. For example, someone may have been reluctant to trade for a RB right after the draft, but now that Larry Johnson is no longer their RB2/RB3, they are actively looking to acquire a RB to replace L.J. Meanwhile, you have four quality RBs, but need a WR3 since you just dropped Terrell Owens out of frustration. Since you can address each other’s needs with one trade, then this dynamic makes you two good trade partners. <br /><br />4. GET FACE/PHONE TIME, THEN SELL HIGH – In this cold, impersonal age of technology we live in, getting someone to agree to a trade can be quite the challenge if all they do is check their email, see the players offered, and click “Reject Trade.” Even counter-offers can be frowned upon when your trade partner doesn’t know a whole lot about the player you’re offering. Solution: If you play in a league where your competition is in the same geographical location as you, then ask to meet them for a drink. Nothing creates a handshake more quickly than alcohol-infused trade talk. Once you two are engaged in Rounds 2 or 3 of your libations, then start educating your counterpart on the benefits of owning the player you’re trying to trade him/her. Stress a lack of injuries, how that player is or has the potential to be the most productive player on their team, and seal the deal by listing the cupcake fantasy playoff schedule down the road. The mere mention of fantasy playoffs gives your partner the notion that s/he may very well be in the playoff hunt (even if s/he’s 3-5), and in order for that person to flourish in the postseason, they will need your RB3 much more than their WR3 down the stretch. Note: If your trade counterpart lives out of town, then the best you can hope for is to get him/her on the phone (or video conference) so that you can feed off each other’s energy. Instant Message or chat on a computer does NOT allow for this energy exchange, and the walls of communication are still there. The same goes with texting trade offers to your counterpart. It’s much easier to say “no” to an email, text, or instant message as opposed to someone making a hard sell in person or on the phone.<br /><br />5. ANALYZE WHICH STARTERS ARE ON THEIR LAST LEGS, THEN ACQUIRE BACKUPS – Let’s say you’re thin at RB or QB, and you need a RB3/QB3 to add to your team for depth purposes. It’s not easy to find a starting RB or QB in the free agent pool at this stage, but just because free agents aren’t currently starting, that doesn’t mean they won’t start at some point. Some good portents of lost playing time are: ineffectiveness (20 rushes for 38 yards in a game), a high draft pick waiting in the wings that ownership is calling for more playing for in a lost season (e.g. QB Vince Young), ball security issues (just ask blindsided Steve Slaton owners), truculence in the locker room with teammates and coaching (Larry Johnson), or excessive mileage on the engine (Clinton Portis).<br /><br />6. ANALYZE WHICH NFL TEAMS HAVE GIVEN UP ON THEIR SEASON, AND ACT ACCORDINGLY – Just because a team is bad, this doesn’t mean they’ve necessarily given up on their season. The Rams and Chiefs might be the two of the worst teams in the NFL, but the cities, fan base, and respective coaching staffs have enough pride and leadership so that they’ll always compete, even in December when they’ve already accumulate double-digit losses. Other inferior teams have already started looking toward next year, and have essentially mailed in the rest of the 2009 season. This year’s candidates to assume this type of mentality include: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Tennessee (head coach Jeff Fisher probably can’t wait to escape the clutches of meddlesome owner Bud Adams), and possibly Washington. If you own players on these teams, you may want to think twice before starting them (except Chris Johnson) unless the matchup is positively delicious.<br /><br />7. BUY A LOTTERY TICKET – If you play in a deep 2-QB league where there are ZERO starting QBs available in the free agent pool, sometimes you need to make speculative picks and hope that luck is on your side. Injuries are a part of football, and the right injury at the right time can benefit your team tremendously. A “lottery ticket” is essentially a free agent pickup of a backup on a high-powered offense who would see a tremendous boost in value and production if the starter playing ahead of him were to suffer a significant injury. My most famous lottery ticket acquisition occurred when I used a 11th round pick on Larry Johnson in my 2005 draft. When then-starting RB Priest Holmes got hurt, paving the way for the era of LJ’s dominance, my team went from mere contender to the front-runner to win the league (I lost my fantasy Super Bowl that year). Some lottery tickets in this 2009 season include: Arizona QB Matt Leinart (how much more pounding can Kurt Warner’s body take?), Houston QB Rex Grossman (Schaub has carried the ‘injury-prone’ label his entire career), and Minnesota RB Chester Taylor (still plenty of tread on his tires, and the Vikings have an awesome offensive line coupled with a balanced offensive attack which keeps defenses honest), to name a few. If you’re choosing between your WR6 who almost never cracks your starting lineup, or a player who could have an instant impact on your ability to score more points, then this should seem like a no-brainer.<br /><br />8. TIME TO GET CUTTHROAT – Look at next week’s opponent’s starting lineup. Do they have holes in their lineup? Do they not have a starting QB this week? If this is the case, be proactive and pluck whoever your opponent needs out of the free agent pool to field a complete and competitive team. Don’t be afraid to use your waiver pick if you’re in a must-win situation. There aren’t as many can’t-miss free agents to grab as opposed to earlier in the year, when it was more judicious to hang onto a high waiver pick. Just last week, I saw my opponent needed a defense to pick up, as his was on bye. I dropped my TE2 and current defense, and picked up Arizona as well as Chicago D only because I knew that those two defenses (playing at home against Carolina and Cleveland, respectively) were the ones my opponent would be targeting for acquisition.<br /><br />9. BELIEVE (but don’t upset the Fantasy Gods) – Not that I’m suggesting you go out and read “The Secret”, but there is something to be said for the power of positive thinking. The unlikeliest upsets have taken place in this beloved sport, and the beauty of fantasy football is that luck can be the sweetest variable to help an underdog reach the postseason. Just because you’re not in first place now doesn’t mean you can’t leapfrog several teams to get back into playoff contention. Now, there is a difference between believing in your fantasy squad, and mocking the shortcomings of other people’s teams. While I lack sufficient data to support this, experience has suggested that the Fantasy Gods (yes, they exist – you’ll just have to trust me) only seem to listen when you arrogantly disparage your opponent’s team. Long story short: Keep it classy when you lose, and stay magnanimous when you win. Your defeated opponent is dejected enough about losing without you rubbing it in his/her face.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-87525879006637474132009-10-27T16:23:00.000-07:002010-06-15T14:28:45.897-07:00HOW TO KNOW WHO TO START VS WHO TO BENCHEach time we peruse our fantasy football lineup, we are constantly looking for an edge or some new bit of information with regards to whether we’re trotting out the best available talent for that week. Often times, we end up starting the wrong lineup anyways even though we check the same list of players countless times from Monday up to the remaining minutes before kickoff! What if there was some sort of systematic method which would yield the necessary empirical data we could run through to ensure that we’re not banging our heads against a wall come Tuesday morning when we realized we could have eked out a victory if we had started a different defense or WR/RB flex option?<br /><br />Behold – the thirteen-point checklist that will both save you a headache and ensure peace of mind when your lineup is due at 10am PST/1pm EST Sunday. Please bear in mind that fantasy football is 60% luck, so even if you run through all the below-mentioned criteria with a fine-tooth comb, you may still end up on the wrong side of the score if your QB1 gets hurt on his offense’s second series of the game.<br /><br />1. CHECK HEALTH OF YOUR PLAYERS – I don’t need to tell you that if you see an “O” next to your player, that means do not, under any circumstances, start him. Only in extremely rare occasions would you start a player listed as doubtful. If you lack any backup quarterbacks, and your QB1 is listed as doubtful, then you might as well start him if there are no available starting options in the free agent pool. If your QB gives you the best chance of putting up points from that position and your only other option for points is hoping Jim Sorgi gets some mopup stats in a Colts blowout victory, then you might as well go with your QB1. But each situation is unique, as no two injuries or players are the same. But sometimes a player is listed as questionable, and you’re not sure whether he’ll play, and if so, how much will he play? Many players throughout their careers play consistently with a questionable tag (Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Donovan McNabb, Hines Ward, and Anquan Boldin are but a few who have beaten the questionable tag in years’ past). But you should only start someone listed as questionable if you lack a capable backup unless that player who is questionable is one of the NFL’s premier “tough guys.”<br /> <br />2. HOME OR AWAY? – It stands to reason that home matchups are more favorable than when your players play on the road in a hostile environment. Factors include, but are not limited to: distracting crowd noise, the inconvenience of traveling across multiple time zones, and referees’ tendencies to make calls that favor the home team. Road matchups don’t necessarily dictate who you should start vs bench. If your player is facing an NFL doormat like St. Louis or Detroit on the road, that is certainly more favorable than playing at home against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or New York. <br /><br />3. BYE WEEK / COMING OFF A BYE WEEK? – 99% of the time, it is better to start a player who is actually playing that week. While this logic seems insultingly elementary, I can name multiple occasions from this season alone where the owner who started JaMarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, or Mark Sanchez wished they had started their QB2 who was off that week, essentially a warm body, instead of their QB3. As a result, Russell, D.A. and Mr. Hot Dog accrued negative stats. Negative stats will occur when a player causes multiple turnovers, no touchdowns and very little yardage. If you had started Joe Montana or Y.A. Tittle, those long-since-retired players in your lineup would have helped your team more than the aforementioned three quarterbacks on the wrong week. It’s tough to recommend benching Derek Anderson when he goes into Baltimore for a warm body when you have no other options, because the logic is counter-intuitive. After all, if a player on your team can’t be trusted to accumulate positive stats, then why is he even on your team in the first place?! Until you lose a game by 1.34 points when your QB3 who was acquired for a spot start garners -2.12 points, this approach may not seem logical at all. But trust me, it HAS happened!<br /><br />When your players are coming off a bye week, not only are they physically and mentally refreshed from the (usually much-needed) week off, but they have also had an extra week to prepare for their upcoming opponent, as well as work out the kinks in their game. Players who are coming off a bye are typically a plus matchup for these three reasons mentioned above. But it is also important to remember that this is but one criterion, so don’t take too much stock in starting Correll Buckhalter if he’s coming from a week off to face the Ravens while benching Steven Jackson as he take on the Lions. Start your studs unless they’re on bye or injured.<br /><br />4. CHECK OPPONENT’S TEAM DEFENSIVE RANKING / GAME HISTORY IN MATCHUPS – When I am often torn between which wide receiver to start as my WR3 or whether to start a RB or WR at my flex position, I will consult the NFL team statistical rankings, which can be found by clicking <a href="http://www.nfl.com/stats/team">here</a>. If your RB3 is facing the league’s 30th ranked rush defense, then you should probably start that player at your flex as opposed to your WR3 if said WR3 is facing the 13th ranked pass defense. <br /><br />In the first month of the regular season, the data sample may be too small to properly analyze matchups based on numbers alone. If it’s early in the season (say, before Week 5), you might want to check specific games from Weeks 1-4 in lieu of overall performance in case the overall statistical data proves misleading. Early-season blowouts against patsy opponents can mislead owners to start the wrong personnel if said personnel is scheduled to play an opponent far better than any they had yet to play. For example, if your RB3 has feasted on the likes of the Raiders, Buccaneers and Rams Weeks 1-3, you may want to think twice before starting him over a WR3 at your flex if he faces Pittsburgh’s second-ranked rush defense Week 4.<br /><br />5. READ BETWEEN THE STATS - In other words, just because Carolina has the lowest passing yards allowed doesn’t mean they have the best pass defense. The Panthers are an awful team that has rarely had a lead in any of their games in 2009. Since Carolina has trailed for most of the season, their opponents have opted to run the ball more to kill the clock with a lead vs. pass the ball and catch up. Before you blindly trust the team rankings, take a quick look at whom these teams have played, and analyze whether your scheduled opponent will play a comparable level of defense this upcoming week given the strength of your WR3/RB3’s entire team. <br /><br />6. OPPONENT’S DEFENSIVE INJURIES – While individual defensive players’ injuries don’t impact team play in the NFL as much as in college football, there are some important positions where key injuries can debilitate a defense’s ability to ‘hold that line.’ If Nnamdi Asomugha, an elite shutdown cornerback, is out for the Raiders with a hamstring injury, then that presents a significant upgrade for your WR if he happens to play the Raiders. If All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney is out with an injury for Indianapolis, then you should feel better about starting your QB2 against the Colts.<br /><br />It is important to be able to tell which injuries will affect opponent’s playmaking abilities. Typically, any injury below the waist is considered debilitating to anyone besides a QB. If Asomugha has an elbow injury, but can still keep up with any receiver in the league, then this type of injury is less critical than if he has a knee/ankle/hamstring problem, which would obviously affect his running ability. If Matt Hasselbeck has a sprained throwing shoulder or elbow, then that would be considered a big upgrade for your team defense facing Seattle since Hasselbeck needs his throwing arm to accumulate stats and win games. <br /> <br />7. WEATHER – When I peruse the free agent pool for a kicker, I find myself gravitating towards kickers playing on a decent offense at home in domed stadiums. While kickers’ games are affected greatly by weather, the entire complexion of a game can also be dictated by precipitation, or lack thereof. Heavy rain tends to beget ball-control offense. In other words, don’t expect your QB to throw for 400 yards if it’s pouring at kickoff, but a RB rushing for 150 yards is not out of the question in rainy conditions. If rain merely hinders an offense, then heavy winds will all but kill an aerial attack as well as a kicking game. Nothing creates more dysfunction in an offense than winds of 30 MPH or more. If you’re torn between two players who to start, check the weather, and type in the ZIP code of the stadium where the game will be played (finding the ZIP code is easy if you type the stadium along with ‘address’ – for example, “Ralph Wilson Stadium address” for a Bills home game) into a search engine. If you see heavy rain/snow, significant chance of rain/snow, or gale winds in the forecast, then focus your attention on other starting options on your team. <br /><br />8. CHECK TEAMMATES’ HEALTH – You own Eagles RB LeSean McCoy, and are contemplating starting him at home against the Giants in Week 8. Since McCoy is second string behind Brian Westbrook, Westbrook’s health dictates McCoy’s workload. Since it seems unlikely Westbrook will play Week 8 in a shortened week after suffering a concussion on Monday Night of Week 7, McCoy gets automatically upgraded to RB2/RB3 status without Westbrook taking touches away from McCoy. If Westbrook were healthy, McCoy wouldn’t be a recommended start as they would split carries. Another example is Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery. who has been out for a few weeks with a pulled hamstring. If you own Mark Sanchez or WR Braylon Edwards, Cotchery’s health will dictate whether Sanchez will have his favorite target to throw to, and whether Edwards will face double-team coverage. A healthy Cotchery means less defensive attention on Edwards, but also fewer looks Edwards’ way in favor of Cotchery. It’s one of those ‘two schools of thought’ or ‘double-edged sword’ conundrums. More attention means more coverage – which might or might not be a good thing, depending on the opponent’s quality of defense. <br /><br />9. CHECK KICKOFF TIMES OF INJURED PLAYERS – If you’re wavering between two players to start where one is healthy, and the other is a game-time decision but has bigger upside, make sure the injured one isn’t playing a later game. If this is indeed the case, you’re taking a big gamble by passing on a sure thing if you have no other alternatives for the late game. For example, let’s say you own WRs Donnie Avery and Anquan Boldin. Avery is healthy, and his game starts on Sunday at 10am PST/1pm EST. On the other hand, Boldin doesn’t play until Sunday Night, and is a game-time decision. Unless you also own Boldin’s teammate, Steve Breaston, you’re probably safer starting Avery, even though his upside isn’t as lofty as Boldin’s. When lineups lock just before the early kickoff on Sunday morning, you lose your ability to decide on Avery as a starter if he’s not already in your lineup. If you have a premier talent that is a game-time decision in a later game, give yourself an additional late-game option by picking up his backup (in this case, Breaston) so that, in case Boldin ends up not playing on Sunday Night, you’re not screwed without any other starting options, and can start Breaston instead. <br /><br />10. TEAMMATES IN REALITY, OPPONENTS IN FANTASY – When setting your lineup, it is often helpful to see if you have players starting that happen to play for the same team as your opponent’s starters. This may be crucial to your ability to hold a lead or come from behind in the later games. If you own Ravens WR Derrick Mason and your opponent is starting Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, and the game isn’t until Sunday Night or Monday Night, you’ll want to think twice before starting Mason if you’re projected to trail by the time the later game starts. Unless Flacco gets hurt, Mason’s production will essentially be tied to Flacco’s, making it difficult or virtually impossible to gain ground on your opponent (depending on your scoring system). Conversely, you can maintain a lead if you own Flacco and your opponent owns Mason. Unless there’s an unlikely end around or unusual Wildcat-esque play, if Mason scores, Flacco scores.<br /><br />11. DOES YOUR PLAYER HAVE ANYONE SNAPPING AT HIS HEELS FOR PLAYING TIME/HIS STARTING JOB? - If you’re debating between starting Kerry Collins in a decent matchup or Kyle Orton against a tougher defense, job security is an important factor to take into account. If Orton lays an egg, he’ll still play four quarters if he’s healthy. However, Collins is two to three interceptions away from the end of his career as a starting quarterback, as the Titan’s brass has been calling for Vince Young to take over in a lost season for Tennessee. Collins may have had more past success as a quarterback, but that doesn’t mean that sunny days are ahead for the 36 year-old signal caller. You don’t want to have Collins in your lineup the week he loses his job.<br /><br />12. CHECK GAME’S OVER/UNDER – Most people don’t understand that NFL wagering and fantasy football are practically kissing cousins, but they are. You can use information from one area and apply it to the other. Here’s an example: If you’re still torn between two options at your flex position, and are at a loss who to start based on weighing the above-listed criteria, check the over/under totals of the two games. For those of you who are unaware of this total, the ‘over/under’ is the combined total number of points oddsmakers predict will be scored in a particular game by both teams. For example, the total for the Eagles/Redskins game on Monday Night of Week 7 was 37.5. Until the last Washington garbage-time score in the final minutes of the game, the Eagles led the ‘Skins 27-10, making this an accurate over/under (the final score was 27-17, meaning the game went ‘over’). Totals tend to range between 33 points (when two good defenses play each other in bad weather) to 54 points (when two great offenses play each other in perfect weather or indoors). If you’re truly in a quandary about who to start, check the totals, as that should lend some indication to the predicted offensive pace, if not the score, of the game. If an over/under is 38 in a game your WR4 is starting and another total is 50.5 in a game your WR5 is playing, this could mean that your WR5 will be potentially involved in a shootout, creating more opportunity to score fantasy points.<br /><br />13. MNF ACTION IN BACK POCKET – Sometimes, when I play an opponent I’m projected to lose to and I need to fill a roster hole for that week, I have been known to look at the Monday Night matchup, and grab an available player from those two teams. I can’t honestly back this up with statistical data that would support this theory, but it provides peace of mind if I’m trailing my opponent after the Sunday games end. I have been known to pick up the home team’s kicker if the matchup is right, and the weather isn’t bad. Often times I find myself trailing my opponent by a handful of points, and a decent day from my kicker (or tight end I grab off the waiver wire) will either facilitate a come-from behind victory, or help me to pad my lead in case my opponent has Monday Night action going as well.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-43268938941184700782009-09-24T14:59:00.000-07:002010-06-15T14:43:34.945-07:00BALANCING FANTASY AND REALITYWhether you’re a fantasy football rookie or veteran, you may have noticed that this sport provides all sorts of challenges: who to start, who to bench, who to pick up off the waiver wire, and who to drop from your squad. If you are one of the few who gets to sit on your butt and enjoy the entire 12+ hours of live NFL programming each weekend, my hat is off to you in admiration. To others that have significant others to attend to on the weekends, you have become aware of an additional challenge: balancing your love life with your football life. Since it’s now Week 3, your enthusiasm for fantasy football has probably placed a dent in your enthusiasm to shower your sweetie with affection on Sundays, and he/she has probably taken notice by now. This quandary places you at a crossroad. Do I maintain my current path and blow off romance on Sundays and Monday Night? Unless you’re dating <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wybmI_ezdAQ">Paul Aufiero</a>, you probably need to somehow budget your time so that your sweetie doesn’t dump you by Columbus Day. Below are some strategies for keeping all parties happy:<br /><br /><br />1. EXPECT TO MISS 2-3 SUNDAYS – You can lay some ground rules to your mate about how important watching Sunday football is to your emotional well being, but you need to mentally prepare for the occasional Sunday away from football. Such reasons may include: a wedding, a family gathering, or time spent getting out of your girlfriend or boyfriend’s doghouse. Sacrifice is often viewed the ultimate gesture in maintaining a relationship, so keep a Sunday or two reserved for that moment when you feel your relationship may reach critical mass. In fact, look at the schedule for the week when half your team is on bye, where you’ll probably lose anyways, and reserve that week for some one-on-one time.<br /> <br />2. MAKE FUN PLANS SATURDAY NIGHT, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT – If your significant other and you share similar work schedules, then you should maximize your time spent together on your off days when football is not in session. In fact, bookending a football day between a breakfast date and a late dinner/movie is something I would recommend to avoid neglecting your loved one. Make plans for Saturday night followed with a breakfast and possible activity (religious services, a walk/hike/bike ride) the following morning. Before you separate for your day on the couch, think of a movie you’d like to see or a restaurant/particular dish you’d like to try for dinner. This will let your sweetie know that plans are on tap for later, and you’re thinking about him/her even as you immerse yourself in NFL action.<br /><br />3. TRY TO EDUCATE, BUT DON’T PUSH IT – Unless your loved one outright detests football, try to gradually educate him/her if they are not familiar. If they have demonstrated a curiosity with what goes on during a game, describe the action in each play (but don’t overwhelm him/her with extraneous information) so that he/she will feel like you’re attempting to include him/her in an activity you love. Start with the explaining the quarterback’s role (since there’s a pretty good chance he/she has heard of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Joe Montana), then your favorite players or players on your fantasy team, run through the down-and-distance terminology (this tends to be one of the first concepts lost on football novices), the scoring system (why touchdowns are so important), explain how the big guys block and the skinny guys run, and this will lay a foundation of understanding for your mate so that you may fill in the blanks as you continue to bring him/her up to speed. If you gauge a willingness to learn from your significant other, then continue the education at a gradual rate. However, if your partner seems to lose interest, or is not enjoying the learning process that may bring the two of you closer, then don’t push football on him/her and respect the fact that you have fundamental differences in your hobbies. <br /><br />4. LAY DOWN THE GROUND RULE THAT MNF IS A BONDING EXPERIENCE WITH YOUR BUDDIES – When Monday Night Football was conceived 40 years ago, it was intended as a night for football fans to focus on football, and gently settle into the new work week. At some point early in your relationship, it would be helpful to clarify that MNF is a special tradition that you have shared with your friends and fantasy league mates for a long time, and after so many years of friendship, this is the lone tradition that has stood the test of time. If you took my advice and showered your girlfriend or boyfriend with affection the preceding 36 hours, then you can probably get a reprieve to join your buddies at the pub for some Monday Night gridiron. However, if you didn’t employ the Saturday Night/Sunday Morning/Sunday Night strategy, or your loved one happens to start their break from their work week on Monday Night and would feel neglected if you were to step away from him/her at that time, then you may need to resort to the next strategy…<br /><br />5. TIVO IS YOUR FRIEND (RECORD AND MINIMIZE WATCH TIME) – Sometimes, watching your favorite game is simply not in the cards if you want to maintain your relationship. Personally, I hate being that guy who records a game on TV at home and is yelling at everyone around them, “DON’T TELL ME THE SCORE! DON’T TELL ME WHO’S WINNING!!” Of course, human nature dictates that your so-called friends/coworkers/acquaintances will do everything in their power to spoil your suspense. However, there are times where you can shut out the world and share an evening in the comfort and solitude of your loved one. To help ensure this isolation, turn your phone off to avoid malicious scoring text updates from your network of acquaintances. Because you can skip the commercials, replay challenges and halftime shows, TiVo/DVR is a great tool that can get you up to speed in less time when you simply don’t have time to watch a particular game.<br /> <br />6. BE REALISTIC: YOU CAN ONLY HAVE ONE DAY AND ONE NIGHT OF FOOTBALL PER WEEK – Sometimes, you have to look at life through your partner’s eyes. He/she made the concession in your relationship to give you all of Sunday afternoon and Monday Night with your friends. In December, when college football ends and the TV time slots become reserved for NFL broadcasts on Saturdays, you can understand your sweetie’s frustration when you suddenly tell him/her you can’t go on Saturday date night because the Saints are hosting the Cowboys in a critical matchup for your fantasy football playoffs. “Wait..there’s football on Saturday now?!?” These games take place with the holidays fast approaching. To preserve domestic tranquility during the playoff stretch, you may need to record some Thursday, Friday Night and Saturday Night games later in the season.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-48415247830966206542009-09-10T15:14:00.000-07:002009-09-10T15:35:45.025-07:00SOME FINAL THOUGHTS BEFORE WEEK 1 GETS UNDERWAY<meta name="Title" content=""> <meta name="Keywords" content=""> <meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"> <meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"> <meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"> <meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"> <link rel="File-List" href="file://localhost/Users/sammykline/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip1/01/clip_filelist.xml"> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:documentproperties> <o:template>Normal</o:Template> <o:revision>0</o:Revision> <o:totaltime>0</o:TotalTime> <o:pages>1</o:Pages> <o:words>778</o:Words> <o:characters>4439</o:Characters> <o:company>EdExcellence Consulting Inc</o:Company> <o:lines>36</o:Lines> <o:paragraphs>8</o:Paragraphs> <o:characterswithspaces>5451</o:CharactersWithSpaces> <o:version>11.1282</o:Version> </o:DocumentProperties> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:donotshowrevisions/> <w:donotprintrevisions/> <w:displayhorizontaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:displayverticaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery> <w:usemarginsfordrawinggridorigin/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> <style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Times New Roman"; panose-1:0 2 2 6 3 5 4 5 2 3; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:50331648 0 0 0 1 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-parent:""; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style> <!--StartFragment--> <p class="MsoNormal">The 2009 NFL Regular Season kicks off in a couple hours, and while most of you have already drafted your fantasy teams, I have made a few observations about various players around the league. Some are established or future stars, others have been past disappointments, and others could be new on your radar. If you feel your team has holes at different positions, then read below for some input on a few players who could positively impact your season down the road.
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<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">(QB) Kyle Orton – Call me crazy, but I am optimistic Kyle Orton will have a solid fantasy season in Denver this year for several reasons: First, the Broncos, by and large, have an offensive line superior to the Bears and will provide better pass protection than Orton received in Chicago last year. Second, Denver’s receiving corps trumps Chicago’s in talent, experience and depth. Brandon Marshall is a beast, Eddie Royal showed great promise after a 91-catch rookie season, Brandon Stokley provides a steady veteran presence and has no fear of going over the middle, and even Jabar Gaffney, as Denver’s WR4, has impressed coaches early on with his toughness.<span style=""> </span>In Chicago, the wide receiver talent gets a little murky after Devin Hester (although I am a fan of Earl Bennett as a sleeper - you'll see below). Third, the Bears run more of a ball-control offense behind stud RB Matt Forte. Denver will not be as likely to feed rookie RB Knowshon Moreno the ball 25 times every game, yet Moreno will establish enough of an on-field presence that should keep defenses honest more so than, say Selvin Young, Michael Pittman or Peyton Hillis did in 2008. Finally, Denver plays in the god-awful AFC West, a once-proud division that currently sports three of the ten worst franchises in the NFL. This means a relatively easy divisional schedule, and in virtually every other game, the Broncos will be forced to pass more than previous seasons since they’ll be trailing more often in 2009.
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<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">(RB) Steven Jackson – Jackson can re-establish himself as a poor man’s Marshall Faulk this season if he can stay healthy for 16 games. While Jackson is more of a power runner than Faulk was, he has equally soft hands, plays behind an improved Ram offensive line from a year ago, and will be the focal point of the offense, much like Faulk was in his heyday. Although the Rams’ NFC West foes have improved defensively, 60-70 catches for Jackson, 1500 total yards and a dozen touchdowns should not be considered out of the question as far as projections go. The Rams should at least double, if not triple their win total (two) from last year, and Jackson can expect to play with more leads in 2009 than he did in 2008. Finally, the lack of depth at running back in St. Louis means that Jackson will be relied on to carry a bigger load than most feature backs, which are a dying breed in the brutal NFL. A repeat of 2006 may be a little much to ask for, but I would expect Jackson to at least approach those numbers this season.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">
<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">(RB) Kevin Smith – Even though the Lions as a unit were as bad as their 2008 record would indicate, it would be difficult to pin the blame on then-rookie Kevin Smith. In his second season, Smith plays for a Lion team that is not only hungry and angry after serving as both the consummate NFL punching bag and laughing stock, but has improved as a team and faces a last-place schedule this season. First, #1 draft pick Matthew Stafford can’t be any worse a quarterback than Dante Culpepper was last year, and Stafford has already established a nice chemistry with Calvin Johnson, the one wideout drafted by the Lions in the first round that the front office can actually be proud of. This newfound success of Stafford-to-Megatron would keep opponents from stacking eight in the box against Smith. With Scott Linehan (who coached Steven Jackson in his magical 2006 season) calling offensive plays for the Lions, Smith will be an integral part of the short passing game, and could easily surpass his 2008 total of 39 receptions. Also, Smith is similar to Jackson in that Smith is an every-down back with a shortage of talent behind him on the depth chart, he excels at picking up the blitz, and is not afraid of a large workload. Furthermore, Smith is reportedly looking quicker after dropping to his college playing weight of 210 pounds. Last but certainly not least, Smith gained the trust of the coaching staff when he only fumbled ONCE last year in spite of 277 touches for a winless team.
<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">
<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">(WR) Earl Bennett – I’ll go ahead and say it now: Earl Bennett could be 2009’s Eddie Royal. At 6’0” and a shade over 200 lbs, Bennett has both the size to muscle for the ball, as well as the quickness to get open downfield. He played together with new Bear QB Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt, and has rekindled that relationship on the practice field. Devin Hester looks to be the burner that stretches the field, but Bennett could establish himself as a legitimate possession threat given that defenses will be likely keying on Hester and TE Greg Olsen. Cutler will open up the Chicago offense in 2009, and Bennett will be a direct beneficiary. If you’re not happy with your WR4 or WR5, pick up Bennett off the waiver wire, and watch him mature week by week this year.</p><p class="MsoNormal">
<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">(TE) Jermichael Finley – This may be your last chance to hop on the Jermichael bandwagon before you’re forced to spend a waiver pick on him. After the Packers engage in a possible shootout with the Bears Week 1, Finley may be gone from the free agent pool. While Jermichael still has some learning to do in his blocking game, he has wowed the Packer coaching staff with his receiving abilities and his athleticism. He is still locked into a timeshare with incumbent starter Donald Lee, but the depth chart appears to be trending toward Lee establishing himself as more of a blocking TE, while Finley becomes a favorite mid-range and red zone target for QB Aaron Rodgers. RB Ryan Grant hasn’t really been established as a prototypical goal-line back thus far in his career, and based on what we’ve seen in the 2009 preseason from the Packers, fireworks are in store this season in Titletown. Finley may not have TE1 value as I type this, but keep him on your radar, because you may need him down the stretch.</p> <!--EndFragment--> Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-67204824960433507442009-08-27T19:18:00.000-07:002009-08-27T19:26:33.388-07:00Your First Fantasy AuctionMost of you have spent your fantasy football careers acquiring players at the outset of the season via the draft system. While there is a great deal of anticipation to drawing crumbled-up pieces of paper out of a hat to decide the draft order, an auction is a much more fun and enveloping ritual. In an auction, psychology and money management must be factored into a successful strategy when fleshing out your roster. In an auction, anyone can own Adrian Peterson, not just the lucky sap who drew a "1" out of the hat during a draft lottery. Throughout my years being involved in fantasy auctions, I have acquired a few nuggets of wisdom (sometimes, the hard way), and will now impart said wisdom to you. In short, a draft is like a game of checkers while an auction is more akin to chess.<br /><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">KNOW YOUR ENEMIES</span> – If you are in a league with your buddies, coworkers, or acquaintances, knowledge of your league competition is of paramount importance. Before your auction, gather as much intel as possible on your leaguemates’ favorite teams, favorite players, who they picked in previous years, and which university they attended or favor. It is also helpful to know if they’re generally spendthrift or frugal with their money. You’d be surprised how their spending habits in real life will mirror how they shop for their fantasy squad. If you are in a one-on-one bidding war with someone, you’ll know they’ll likely bid a bit over market value on someone from their favorite team, alma mater, or their best player from last season’s fantasy team that had a monster year for them. If you’re bidding on a handcuff RB with someone who owns the starting RB from the same team, then you’ll likely get them to prolong the bidding for a couple more rounds and deplete their funds more quickly.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">KNOW THE MARKET</span> – In the case of a fantasy auction, the “market” is defined as the remaining players available in the free agent pool before the auction ends in conjunction with the remaining people who can bid on a player. For example, in many auctions, you are only allowed to bid on your starting lineup first. That means if someone already bought two quarterbacks in a 2-QB league, that team is ineligible to bid on any more QBs. Fewer bidders means fewer people driving up the price, or, as I affectionately call these people, “Price Driver-Uppers,” which typically results in a lower price for a player. Even if an elite asset is still available, they’ll be cheaper if they’re acquired later in the draft (when people have filled up their roster spots and have run out of money) than earlier. Also, it is important to be aware of the remaining elite talent available per position. If someone has merely adequate wide receivers, and the only supreme talent left is, say, Reggie Wayne, then you will be able to gouge that person for extra cash by driving up Wayne’s price before dropping out of the auction (unless you also need Wayne on your squad).</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">USE THE DRAFT BOARD</span> - <span style=""> </span>Consider this to be “Know the Market: Part 2.” By using the draft board, typically mounted on a wall of the room you are auctioning in, you can see 1) who has glaring holes in the team they are assembling, meaning how much they will (over)pay for a stud to give them a better feeling about how their lineup will shake out come Week 1. <span style=""> </span>Also, you can use the draft board to 2) see the number of people eligible to bid on a certain position by looking at their rosters, and get a feel for how much a particular player might cost. 3) It is important to use the draft board to establish market value - to see how much your leaguemates are paying for talent of all tiers. If Tony Romo went off the board for $30, then you can expect to pay at least as much, if not more, for Drew Brees. If someone paid $37 for Michael Turner, then, unless you have a dearth of talent at RB, you shouldn’t expect to pay more than $28 for, say, Thomas Jones. </p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">KEEP AN EAGLE EYE ON YOUR FINANCES</span><span style=""> </span>- Nothing feels worse than running low on money early in the auction when there are still a bunch of available players you wish you could bid on, but can’t because you know you’ll get outbid. Be judicious with your spending in the early stages. While you’ll have to pony up for top-tier talent, don’t overpay for someone whose stats can be matched by dozens of other players in the league. For example, don’t bid $24 for Donald Driver when there are 20 other receivers in the league who can also accrue 70 catches, 1000 yards and 6 TDs. Supply and demand is the fundamental lesson from Econ 101 you must take into account in a fantasy auction setting.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">DON’T LOSE YOUR HEAD AFTER MAKING A MISTAKE</span> – I remember one year, someone put up mediocre WR Curtis Conway for a dollar. I was sidetracked when I was flipping through my research on another player. Since I went to USC, and Curtis Conway was someone whom I had a favorable impression of from his Trojan days than in the NFL, I blurted out “one-ten” before I even realized what I had said. As soon as I heard myself say “one-ten” in reference to Curtis Conway, I felt a silence overcome the room, the hair on the back of my neck beginning to bristle, and a hot flush feeling on my forehead followed by a single bead of sweat trickling down the side of my face. I then heard the most dreaded sound you can hear at an auction after you realize you just overpaid for a player, “Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out." I looked up at the fellow USC alum who started Conway’s bidding at a dollar. Only now, he had a huge grin on his face which made me want to smash his teeth in. He took a calculated risk by putting up Conway for auction, screwed me big time when I took the bait, and we both knew it. For the next hour, not only did I struggle with the ignominy of overpaying for Curtis Conway (his value was closer to a nickel than a dollar), but I saw a ton of quality wideouts go for a fraction of what I paid for Conway. I found myself unable to get over my gaffe, and wasn’t thinking clearly enough to gauge a bargain when it finally came my way towards the end of the draft. “Nah, I’m not paying fifty cents for Chad Johnson.” Sigh….Keep a cool head, everyone makes mistakes, it’s how we learn from those mistakes that defines us as quality fantasy GM’s.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">BE ‘THAT GUY’</span> – At almost every fantasy draft or auction, there’s always one guy who gets under people’s skin. It could be an obnoxious tool who thinks his team in better than everyone else’s, or perhaps someone who criticizes every semi-questionable move made, or it could be someone who announces injuries or other bad news about a recent acquisition (someone who drafts Steve Slaton would elicit the faux-aside comment from ‘That Guy’, “Well, hopefully he’ll still have some value even if he loses goal-line carries to Chris Brown.” Don’t be afraid to be ‘That Guy’. Given the accounting and psychology factors, people are using their heads more in fantasy auctions, and are more susceptible to getting thrown off their game than in a draft setting, where they simply pick names off their cheatsheets. You may piss your league mates off, but given that this only happens once a year, you’ll have a lot of fun in the process. Besides, people love a good villain.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">START LOW</span> – If your opening bid is too high for a player whose value is in question, you may hear the above-mentioned “Out” chorus from your competitors. Coming off James Jett’s 11-TD season a few years ago, I thought I might throw out Jett’s name for a dollar in case one of three Raider fans in the room decided they wanted him (basically, me lashing out for the Curtis Conway debacle from a year earlier). As they knew I was a Bronco fan/Raider hater, and that Jett’s 11 TDs were a total fluke since they actually watched the guy play, they decided that I should get to keep him for the inflated price. Nothing bad can come of bidding too low for a player, but you might get stuck overpaying if your competition is wise to your chicanery.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">DON’T PUT UP PLAYERS YOU LIKE</span> – If your auction is structured that league members sitting around the room rotate in deciding who goes up for auction, then it is helpful to avoid putting up your favorite players or players you want on your team.<span style=""> </span>If your mates know you’re a Dolphins fan and you put up Pennington, Ronnie Brown and Davone Bess for bidding, they know they’ll be able to milk you for more money by virtue of the fact that you couldn’t wait for someone else to put those Fish up for sale. Rest assured, the studs and your favorite players and sleepers will probably get introduced before the auction is over. If nobody introduces your favorite sleepers until the end, then you can get those players much cheaper when everyone is almost out of money. </p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-weight: bold;">MAINTAIN YOUR POKER FACE</span> – During an auction, it’s easy to see when a fantasy owner really wants a particular player – they become the auctioneer. “Okay, Alex just bid $25 for Stephen Jackson. Tony, what about you? $26 for Jackson? Tony?” ThIs is but one of the most common “tells” during a fantasy auction. Instead of running the auction, act calm, cool, and aloof when you’re bidding on a player you like. Almost feign disinterest, and continue to bid, especially if you know someone covets a particular player. “$32 for MJD? Hmm, I dunno, he may not hold up all year as the featured back…aw, what the hell, make it $35.” This will infuriate your bidding competition, causing much delight to everyone else.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast"><o:p> </o:p></p>Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-829852475807343262009-08-24T12:22:00.001-07:002009-08-24T22:08:56.350-07:00Fantasy Football Live Online Draft: Five Do's and Don'tsDraft day is a sacred time in any fantasy football aficionado's life, a time when every member of a fantasy league has a shot at drafting the greatest team in the history of Rotisserie. We all have our pre-draft rituals as well as our idiosyncrasies as far as where we draft and with whom we draft. As we are all different with unique work habits, it is important to be in an environment where you are comfortable and can focus on only the draft at hand:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">DO'S:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1. Make sure you have a reliable broadband connection</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> - </span>If you're still stuck in 1996 and have a dial-up Internet connection, either find a public or school library and use one of their machines equipped with broadband to avoid possible interruption of your Internet connection, or go to a friend/family member's house who is not in your league. An empty office at work on Saturday is an ideal environment for Draft Day. Since live drafts are conducted in real time, you want to make sure the machine you're working on is keeping pace with your draft. Business center stores (e.g. Kinko's) also have available computers, but check the prices before you hop on a Kinko's computer for three hours, as you may end up forfeiting all your future winnings on workstation usage fees before the season even starts!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2. Eliminate potential distractions - </span>You may want to catch some baseball on TV between your draft picks or call your girlfriend back. Or, you may want to download a song while you're waiting for your pick to come around. Solution: baseball boxscores are available after the game, so turn off the TV. If your girlfriend can't wait two hours for you to call her back, send her a text message or email before the draft saying you'll talk to her in a couple hours. Itunes isn't going anywhere, so feel free to hold off on your impulsive need to shop for music until after the last round. In fact, close all websites that don't pertain to your draft, and keep no more than 2-3 browser windows open at once (including your draft room). If your computer's reliability is questionable, reboot your computer <span style="font-style: italic;">before </span>your draft so the chance of it freezing / crashing during the draft is minimized. You don't want any problems or distractions during one of the most important three-hour stretches of the year.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. Mind the Queue - </span>Unfortunately, computer crashes during a live draft are more common than any of us would like to admit. To prevent Murphy's Law from taking effect, make sure you have at least two players you would consider taking at that stage in the draft queued up, and ready to select. If, by some chance, you lose track of time and your clock expires or, worse yet, your computer crashes before you make your pick, at least you have some say as far as who gets selected as opposed to the pre-installed rankings dictating whom you pick. Sometimes, these website-generated pre-rankings fail to take the latest season-ending injuries to a starter into account. Back in 2003, Chad Pennington broke his hand in a pre-season game, and the draft website's pre-draft rankings still had Pennington ranked as if he were healthy. After nine rounds with plenty of healthy QBs to choose from, Pennington was inadvertently selected when someone got accidentally kicked off the online draft room. This occurrence upset the victim so much, that he lost focus and made a slew of questionable picks the rest of the draft due to his lingering rage. Don't be that guy.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4. Pre-ranking your players is overkill</span> - As motivated as we all are in preparing for draft day, it is optimistic to think that we will spend countless hours shuffling players up and down your pre-rankings of 300-400 players. By the time your draft is completed, it won't matter that you moved DeAngelo Williams ahead of Brandon Jacobs because they'll both be gone within the first two rounds, anyway. Instead, find the players you DON'T want under any circumstances, and move whoever is injured, benched, or suspended for the year ALL THE WAY DOWN to the end of your pre-rankings beneath Keary Colbert and Bruce Gradkowski. This way, if your computer freezes or crashes during the live draft, there will be virtually no chance you'll get stuck with a fantasy stiff for a draft pick.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />5. Make sure your laptop battery is fully charged</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span>- You should have a power supply plugged into an electrical outlet during your draft. However, if you discover you absolutely must be mobile during your draft, don't run out of battery power. Trust me, you will experience no sympathy from your league mates if this happens. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br /><br />DONT'S:<br /><br />1. Don't drink near your computer - </span>Keep your beverages on a separate table from your computer. I'm sure you're the least clumsiest person in the world, but you don't want anything like spilled milk or beer ruining the most important stretch of your football season.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2. Don't just fill out a starting lineup first - </span>This means, don't take your starting kicker before your third RB. As you probably know, kickers should be saved for your last round. If you want a RB3 that will shine on your roster, he should be selected by the sixth or seventh round (sometimes before your WR2 or TE1). If you want a QB3 that's more than just an injury stopgap, you should pick that signal caller by the 12th round. Bye weeks and injuries will test the depth of your entire fantasy football squad, so, in many cases, your backups can be almost as important as your starters.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. Don't get too chatty online</span> - Yes, there is a chat feature in your draft room, but unless you're posting singular jabs about how someone just used their third-round pick on an imprisoned wideout that shot himself, don't get engaged in extensive conversations during your online draft. First, you'll get distracted by your opponents, which is typically their objective in stirring the pot. Second, you may accidentally reveal some of your strategy. If you're in a league with your friends, they may know you well enough to read between the lines of your chat, and then may upstage you with a pick you had queued. If you haven't spoken to various league mates since last January, wait until after the draft to catch up on old times.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4. Don't bother crossing out players on your personal cheat sheet<span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span>- Your computer's online draftboard will keep track of which talent has been taken. By the middle rounds, you'll be spending more time cross-referencing who's gone from the board vs who is still available on your manual cheat sheet than deciding who your next pick will be.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />5. Don't overwork your computer - </span>This is in conjunction with #2 on the list of "Do's." Close the Facebook and the Twitter, close your email, even close your online radio/Itunes and turn a boombox or clock/radio on instead if you <span style="font-style: italic;">must </span>have music on during your draft. Any bandwidth taken away from your draft room could cause potential problems for your computer's memory, causing you to get accidentally kicked out of your draft room and autodraft you Tarvaris Jackson, causing four months of spiteful bitterness.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br /><br /><br /></span>Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-49221980135529174012009-08-19T15:48:00.000-07:002009-08-24T12:21:23.778-07:00Talent + Time = Draft Value<p class="MsoNormal">We all read the same cheat sheets before we acquire our fantasy football teams, and we all discuss the same superstars we’d love to draft in the first three rounds. But just as often as these studs carry our teams throughout the season, it is important to also recognize the benefits of mid-to-late round value picks. Many fantasy football newbies get to the latter stages of their draft, start frantically browsing their lists, and can’t find a name they recognize to fill out their roster. So-called value picks fall into three categories: 1) football players that constitute a value pick were either once-hyped and fell down the depth chart but are now in an improved situation (this situation could be attributed to a change of scenery, changes in surrounding team talent, or a coaching change) , 2) were former studs whose stock dropped after an injury and are now healthy again, or 3) consistent performers tested by the arrival of a new teammate who is competing for their job. In any case, the following is a list of quality NFL footballers whose draft stock is lower during the preseason/draft time than it will be by season’s end:</p><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">In most leagues, only the can’t-miss premiere QBs (in this year’s case, Brady and Brees) will get drafted in a typical fantasy league within the first two rounds. Any quarterback besides those two shouldn’t be expected to be taken until at least the third round. It’s not that there is a shortage of QB talent in this year’s pool, but the separation of perceived value in the second tier of QBs is shorter between a Tony Romo and, say, Donovan McNabb. If healthy, Romo and McNabb should put up comparable numbers and have similar value, but McNabb might get snapped up in the fifth round while Romo gets taken in the eighth. My point is, you can probably wait a few rounds on a franchise QB and the value dropoff would be minimal and first concentrate on acquiring a Pro Bowl RB2, WR2, WR3 and TE1.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">QB - Carson Palmer (QB – Cin)</b> Although he lost his most productive receiver to free agency, Carson Palmer, who is 100% recovered from elbow trouble after playing only four games last season, is a great candidate for a bounce-back year. Palmer was fantasy royalty a few years ago, but has become an afterthought even though he is still in the prime of his career at age 29. Since the Bengals replaced All-Pro wideout TJ Houshmanzadeh with the very capable Laveraneus Coles, he won’t lose a ton of production given that WR1 Chad Ochocinco looks revitalized. Palmer’s minor ankle sprain should be fine by Week 1, and Palmer has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of cheapie stats in the league the past few years playing for a subpar franchise like the Bengals. You could do a lot worse than use an eighth round pick for what could be a productive 4000-yard season with 20-25 TDs.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">QB - Peyton Manning (Ind)</b> - Even as a third-rounder, the elder Manning should be considered a great value pick. When Peyton Manning is your QB1, it’s easier to sleep at night because he never misses a game, and he puts up consistent monster stats. Peyton may not be this year’s trendy, sexy pick that people gush over in the preseason, but statistically speaking, he’s the Alex Rodriguez of fantasy football. Target him as a third-round pick, grab him before he falls to the fourth, and thank me in January.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-weight: bold;">QB - Matt Schaub (Hou) </span>- While Schaub's ADP has risen in the past month, he will still fly under the radar more so than 2008 postseason heroes Phillip Rivers and Kurt Warner. He had one of the best offensive arsenals from top to bottom, and all 11 members of the Texan offense are returning in 2009. Don't be afraid to reach for Schaub in the fifth round, because he could be the next Drew Brees.<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Most fantasy footballers have had the philosophy of drafting RBs early drilled into their heads since they started playing; that unless you’re drafting a Tom Brady or Larry Fitzgerald, you had better pick your RB1 with one of, if not both of your first two picks. <span style=""> </span>If you feel you missed out on truly elite running backs, then target backs who have at least 40 catches, as this mathematically translates to an extra 6-10 TDs, depending on your scoring system. Targeting TJ-Duckett types who may only garner a handful of rushing yards but might score multiple TDs can be a risky proposition if, say, Seattle can’t crack the red zone consistently. Conversely, pass-catching RBs can score points for your team from anywhere on the football field. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">RB – Leon Washington (NYJ)</b> – Although the Jets backfield appears crowded with rookie Shonne Greene competing with incumbent starter Thomas Jones, Washington is a unique talent in the vein of Reggie Bush. He is extremely elusive, can return punts and kicks, and finds unusual ways of getting touches. Jets coach Rex Ryan has said that Washington’s role will increase this year, and you can still grab him as a dynamic RB4 in the latter rounds of your draft. If he gets between 200-300 touches and stays healthy, expect Leon’s best statistical season to date. The Jets aren’t paying him a reported $4-5 million per year so he can serve as a decoy, and he’ll be needed as a safety valve for the young Jet QBs when they’re facing a heavy pass rush. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">RB - Brandon Jacobs (NYG)</b> - Jacobs has proven he can be a touchdown machine, has shown improved hands in training camp, and the Giants figure to base more of its offensive attack around the run after lost Pro Bowl wideout Plaxico Burress. Ahmad Bradshaw will take most of the load left by Derrick Ward, but he’ll also keep Jacobs fresh. As Jacobs has averaged only 211 carries each of the last two seasons, he still has low miles on the engine. If he duplicates his 15 TD season with more receptions than a year ago, he becomes a mid-first round pick. You can probably get him in the early-to-mid second round this year.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">RB - LaDainian Tomlinson <span style=""> </span>(SD)</b> - LaDainian may not quite be at the peak of his prime anymore, but he’s still a first-round pick capable of 1700 combined yards, 14 TD, and 50 catches. This could be a huge year for San Diego, as they are one of the most balanced teams in football. As Phillip Rivers has established himself and the Charger passing game, opposing defenses won’t key on LT like they did earlier in his career. If, for any reason, Tomlinson slips out of the first round, grab him, as he is 100% healthy.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">RB - Reggie Bush (NO)</b> - After his reputation took a beating when people realized he wasn’t going to be the same NFL wunderkind that he was in college, many people have written Bush off. When the Saints’ offense isn’t clicking at certain times, QB Drew Brees tends to just dump the ball to Bush, and watch him create yards with his explosive burst and dynamic ability. He won’t get 300 carries like other second round picks, but he can score 10 TDs with 80 catches and over 1000 combined yards if he plays a Westbrook-esque full season (in other words, fully expect him to miss 1-2 games). If Bush is available in the latter stages of the third round, grab him, as he seems to be fully recovered from offseason knee surgery.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Wide receiver is undoubtedly the deepest position of available talent in fantasy football. While there is sometimes only one QB, RB or TE worth targeting on one NFL team, some teams like the Saints, Broncos, Cardinals or Texans have as many as three wideouts one would be proud to have on their roster. If there is one position you can wait on to fill out the rest of your slots at that particular position, it’s wide receiver. You probably couldn’t find a 4000-yard passer or a 1200-yard tailback in the eleventh round of a typical fantasy draft, but you can probably choose from at least a half-dozen 70 reception, 1000-yard receivers at that stage. <span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span>Don’t get me wrong: the Fitzgeralds, Megatrons and Andre Johnsons will be gone in the first three rounds, but you’d be surprised at the surfeit of talent at wideout that is available towards the end of your draft.<br /><o:p><br /></o:p><b style="">WR - Donnie Avery (StL)</b> <span style=""> </span>– Donnie Football’s ADP stock has taken a hit with a stress-fracture in his left foot. His injury may even keep him out of Week 1, which has rendered him a mere afterthought in many fantasy drafts. Avery has made a speedy recovery, and will likely be Marc Bulger’s #1 target when the Rams begin the regular season. <span style=""> </span>Bulger and Avery were developing a solid rapport last year before Avery hit the proverbial “rookie wall.” Factor in that the Rams are a fairly awful team outside of Stephen Jackson, you can expect a heap of cheapie stats when they’re losing by multiple scores in the second half of most of their games in 2009. If Avery is still available at the end of your draft, he could be a solid WR4 as the season gets underway.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">WR - Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ)</b> – With Laveranues Coles gone to Cincinnati, Cotchery becomes the unquestioned top receiving option in the Jets’ passing game. Regardless of who wins the starting QB job for the Jets, Cotchery is a very talented possession receiver with a penchant for acrobatic catches and making clutch plays. His 2008 numbers were down, which can be attributed to newcomer Brett Favre’s learning the Jets’ playbook on the fly. But given that the 2009 starting QB has had more offseason and preseason time to prepare, Cotchery should be properly synced up with his signal caller come Week 1. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">WR – Hines Ward (Pit)</b> – Your fellow league mates will probably still have the image of Santonio Holmes’ Super Bowl-winning catch fresh in their minds, and will select Holmes six rounds earlier than Ward. But Hines, who has been a consistent part of the Pittsburgh passing game for most of his entire 10-year career, has declared himself 100% from lingering shoulder and knee injuries headed into this season.<span style=""> </span>He should be happy after signing a $22-million contract, and could be in for another 70-80 catch, 8 TD season as a nice value pick after the tenth or eleventh round. <span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">WR – Donald Driver (GB)</b> – Driver has been a paradigm of consistency in fantasy football the last several years. Since 2002, he has missed only two games, and as he has garnered 1000 receiving yards each year since 2004,he is one of the most reliable possession receivers in the league. Aaron Rogers has proven to be the real deal as Brett Favre’s successor in Titletown, fellow WR Greg Jennings will draw opposing teams’ top cornerback, and Driver should continue to flourish in Green Bay’s West Coast Offense with plenty of short-to-medium passes coming his way. Lastly, you can expect the motivated Driver to play 2009 with a heavy heart as he continues to mourn Alcorn State teammate Steve McNair’s offseason murder.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Tight ends are considered a tertiary concern to most fantasy owners. Tight end is also a position where eighth-round selections can yield production about equal to, if not more than, a “can’t miss” fourth-rounder. If you don’t believe me, just ask anyone who used a third-round pick on Antonio Gates, who accrued a disappointing 60 catches for 704 yards last year. Then look at the number of tight ends who out-performed Gates, in spite of the fact that Gates played all 16 regular season games.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p><b style="">TE – Chris Cooley (Was)</b> – Cooley’s name is rarely mentioned when fans and experts discuss NFL’s elite tight ends. <span style=""> </span>Every fantasy footballer wants a Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, or a Tony Gonzalez as their starting TE, but acquiring a name like one of the aforementioned three will probably cost as much as a third-round pick in some drafts. Coming off a season in which Cooley scored one measly touchdown, Redskins coach Jim Zorn has reportedly promised Cooley that the tight end will find the end zone “at least” six times. The ‘Skins top wideout, Santana Moss is, for the most part, a deep threat, and the lack of a true WR2 in Washington means that Cooley will be QB Jason Campbell’s primary target in the medium-range passing game. Cooley has never missed a game, has shown admirable consistency with flashes of greatness at times during his career, and is still in his prime at 27 years old. Target Cooley around the eighth round after the so-called “elite” TEs are gone.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">TE - John Carlson (Sea)</b> – Carlson first appeared on most fantasy radars when he exploded for a 6-catch, 105-yard game on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. He has demonstrated great catching abilities as well as a profound understanding of the pro game at such a young age, that he can expect more playing time this year, and probably more production. In spite of TJ Houshmanzadeh’s arrival, Seahawk offensive coordinator Greg Knapp runs an offense that heavily involves tight ends, so expect more good things from Carlson in his second season in Seattle.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="">TE - Zach Miller (Oak)</b> – The Raiders are still, at best, a mediocre team, but given their depth issues at wide receiver coupled with Miller’s productive 56-catch, 778-yard rookie season, expect similar numbers with a few more TDs sprinkled in. The Raider coaching staff could line up Miller in the slot given the lack of available talent at wideout. If Oakland QB1 JaMarcus Russell, who is approaching thin ice in his third year, falters or gets injured, Jeff Garcia would serve as a favorable passer who would benefit Miller and his fantasy owners. <span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=""></span>TE – Jeremy Shockey (NO)</b> – Remember him? He’s healthy, he’s established great timing with QB Drew Brees, he’s having a remarkable preseason, he’s out of the Saints’ coaching doghouse, and he’ll have plenty of red zone scoring opportunities in his second season on the offensive juggernaut Saints. Even in an injury-riddled 2008, he still managed 50 catches, and could approach loftier totals akin to his salad days in New York if he can stay off the injury report in 2009. <span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span></p>Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-92111818130687042462009-08-17T15:59:00.001-07:002009-08-24T12:17:35.389-07:00Avoid Drafting Potential Pitfalls and Landmines<div class="Section1"><br /><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">QB – Joe Flacco (Bal)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – Not only have the Ravens been fortifying their running game with Willis McGahee’s newfound work ethic and Ray Rice’s explosive preseason, but Joe Flacco has had the Raven coaching staff worried with an inordinate number of interceptions thrown in practice. Although WR1 Derrick Mason came out of retirement to play again in 2009, he’s a year older and slower, although still a formidable fantasy WR4. Mark Clayton tore his hamstring, denying Flacco valuable time to establish timing before the regular season begins. Given that there are about 25-30 starting quarterbacks who would look much better on your roster, you’ll want to avoid a potentially frustrating season by letting someone else draft Flacco as their QB3.</span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />QB – Jay Cutler (Chi) </span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> - If you think Cutler will approach the numbers he put up in Denver, it is important to take three things into account. 1) Da Bears have a defense far superior to the Donkeys, which means Cutler will probably not be playing/passing with his team down as often. 2) The Bears’ receivers do not match up with Denver’s wideouts. Even if Bear TE Greg Olsen has the monster season people are predicting, he and Devin Hester do not hold a candle to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal for fantasy purposes. 3) Chicago typically runs more of a ball-control offense. While they may open things up this year to allow Cutler’s arm to stretch defenses, you can expect Matt Forte to vulture at least 8-10 TD’s inside the 5 yard-line.</span><br /></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"></span><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />QB – Marc Bulger (StL) </span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;">– Torry Holt, the wideout that had been Bulger’s go-to target for many years, is now in Jacksonville. Donnie Avery, the Rams’ new WR1, has been hampered by a broken foot all preseason. That leaves a dearth of receiving talent available for Bulger to pass to. Furthermore, Bulger recently suffered a fractured pinkie on his throwing hand, will probably need extra time to establish timing and chemistry with his new receivers, and may show some rust once he is healthy. The days of the “Greatest Show on Turf” get even smaller in the rear view mirror while RB Stephen Jackson continues to establish himself as the focal point of the Ram offense.</span><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">QB - Brett Favre (Min) </span></b><span style="font-size:100%;">As soon the news of #4's return broke, I immediately thought of my friend, Bob, who has endured so so much frustration as a Viking fan of 30 years. Although it sounds like a great fit for Favre given that he's familiar with the West Coast offense and has a premiere running game which will keep defenses honest, I am concerned about his surgically-repaired body holding up all year long. Even though Favre is expected to take over the starting QB job in Minnesota, he has been diagnosed with a slightly torn rotator cuff, which isn't supposed to affect his throwing ability. In spite of his status at the Cal Ripken Jr.-esque Ironman of the NFL, I would bet dollars to donuts that, in spite of skyrocketing ticket sales for Sunday afternoons at the Metrodome this fall, Favre doesn't make it through a full 16 game-season. He barely made it through 2008 as a Jet, and wasn't well enough to play last year's Pro Bowl (why he was selected after throwing 22 TD / 22 INT speaks to the credibility of the Pro Bowl selection process). Let someone else in your draft overpay for Favre, and instead take a less-risky QB2 three to four rounds later than Favre with slightly less upside but will put up similar numbers (and fewer INT's) like, say, Trent Edwards, or perhaps Matt Hasselbeck (if Walter Jones is healthy).<br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span></b></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">RB – Marshawn Lynch (Buf)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – Not only is Lynch facing a three-game suspension from offseason criminal activity to start the season, but the Bills will be passing more this season given that they have two elite receivers in Lee Evans and newcomer Terrell Owens. As Buffalo is in a tough AFC East division, they will probably be playing from behind a great deal this season, and Lynch will not be able to rack up games where he gets 25 carries. </span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />RB – Earnest Graham (TB)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – When RB Derrick Ward signed with the Bucs, Graham’s value took an immediate hit. He is, at best, a decent RB3 who is effective at the goal-line if he stays healthy. However, the fact that Tampa Bay lacks a true QB1 leads one to believe that opposing defenses will not respect the Buccaneer passing game. Expect more eight-in-the-box formations than usual against Tampa Bay this season, and a disappointing season for Graham. Lastly, newcomer Kellen Winslow is sure to vulture 5-8 TDs from the running game this year if Winslow can avoid staph infections and testicular maladies.</span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />RB - Thomas Jones (NYJ) </span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;">– Jones had an career year during season in his first year on the Jets, but this can be partly attributed to the fact that defenses were kept honest by Brett Favre's presence under center. In 2009, Favre is gone from East Rutherford, but rookie RB Shonn Greene has impressed early in preseason and will surely cut into Jones' workload., Given that Jones isn’t exactly a spring chicken at 31 years old, expect more of a timeshare between Greene and Jones. Also, don't forget about scatback Leon Washington, who is expected to play a bigger role in the offense.</span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />RB – Lendale White (Ten)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> The running back formerly known as "LandWhale" lost 30 pounds this offseason after swearing off tequila for six months. Besides the fact that </span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;">White has been a virtual nonfactor when it comes to receptions, it remains to be seen whether this weight loss will be helpful or harmful to his power style of running. White, without a doubt, will play second fiddle in the Tennessee backfield to speedster Chris Johnson. Also, the Titans are not expected to be as dominant a team this year without defensive mayhem specialist Albert Haynesworth plugging holes in opponents’ blocking lanes. In 2008, White was brought in to games when his team had the lead and was trying to kill the clock, while Johnson was inserted when the Titans needed a big offensive play with the game in question. Since Tennessee won’t be nursing as many leads this year given the gaping hole from the absence of Haynesworth on defense, expect fewer carries for White.<br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span></b></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">WR – Eddie Royal (Den)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – The downgrade at quarterback from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton will surely dispel any hopes of a repeat 90-catch season for Royal. Factor in that WR1 Brandon Marshall was acquitted of criminal charges, won't get traded this seasonm, and won’t face a suspension. Once "Baby T.O." (a fitting nickname on many levels) learns the new playbook, Royal won’t get many regular season snaps as Denver’s go-to wideout. Historically, very few rookie WR’s have experienced continued success in their second year in the NFL after a monster rookie campaign, and given the switch at QB for Denver, Royal figures to be more of the rule (i.e. Terry Glenn) than the exception (i.e. Randy Moss) in 2009.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">WR – Bernard Berrian (Min)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – In order for Berrian to have a monster season, three things need to happen: 1) Brett Favre, with all of three weeks to prepare for Week 1, needs to play better than he did for the Jets last year. 2) Berrian, who was seen limping on the sidelines with a tender hamstring after his first preseason game needs to stay healthy the entire season, something he hasn’t done even when he was playing on natural turf in Chicago. 3) Super-hyped rookie Percy Harvin needs to establish himself as a presence in the receiving game without completely cutting into Berrian’s anticipated production. Given these three factors, you should let someone else take a flier on Berrian as their WR3/WR4.</span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />WR – Antonio Bryant (TB)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – Last season’s fantasy football playoff MVP (yep, I traded him in early November thinking Joey Galloway’s impending return would send him back to the Tampa Bay bench, and the team I traded him to won the Super Bowl…sigh) probably couldn’t tell you who his starting QB will be in 2009. While Bryant is a supreme talent, defenses can be expected to key on him more with the departure of Galloway, and while he established a great chemistry with since-departed Jeff Garcia under center last year, it would be optimistic to assume he’ll pick up right where he left off in 2008 given that he'll miss the entire preseason as he recovers from meniscus surgery. Bryant won’t be a bust of a pick, but he may be valued too high given that he probably played over his head in the three most important weeks in the fantasy football season last year.</span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />WR – Torry Holt (Jax)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – “Touchdown” Torry Holt has had a hall-of-fame career, but his best days as a can’t-miss WR1 are long gone. Furthermore, the Jaguars’ offense has traditionally been more of the smash-mouth, ball control variety, and that figures to continue with Maurice Jones-Drew starting at tailback in 2009. As Jacksonville hasn’t boasted a WR stud since Jimmy Smith retired, you should let someone else who rode Holt to the playoffs 3-5 years ago reminisce about the old days when he played with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk, and take him.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><br /><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">TE – Kellen Winslow (TB) </span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;">He left Cleveland, a sub-.500 club with constant quarterback controversies, for Tampa Bay, a slightly better squad with an even worse situation at QB. Best case scenario, his starting QB is Byron Leftwich. Hard to blame Winslow for wanting out of Cleveland, but given his extensive (and unusual) injury history and sometimes disruptive presence in the locker room, you should avoid Winslow, and grab someone like Owen Daniels or Dallas Clark with a mid-round pick this year instead. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">TE – Tony Scheffler (Den)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – One of the bigger teases in fantasy football, Scheffler looks absolutely awesome when he is healthy and productive. His speed, leaping and catching ability make him look more like a beefed-up wideout than a tight end. However, Kyle Orton (or, possibly, Chris Simms) is now taking snaps in Denver, and Scheffler probably won’t be catching the occasional bomb like he did when Cutler was throwing him the pigskin.</span><br /><b><span style="font-size:100%;"><br />TE – Alge Crumpler (Ten)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – Weighing in at 300 pounds, Crumpler will now be a blocking tight-end for the Titans, and now probably has slightly more value than retired TE Carlester Crumpler. Bo Scaife and rookie Jared Cook have established themselves as the playmaking TE's in Tennessee, and unless it’s Chris Johnson we’re discussing, I’d just as well avoid all Titans altogether.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><b><span style="font-size:100%;">TE – Todd Heap (Bal)</span></b></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size:100%;"> – Similarly to Scheffler, Heap has been a bit of a tease showing flashes of acrobatic catches mixed with injury-riddled seasons his entire eight-year career in Baltimore. The Ravens have a three-headed rushing attack with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and LeRon McClain sharing red zone scoring opportunities, Heap is expected to play a larger role in the newly installed "chip" blocking game. Given that Joe Flacco has not impressed anyone this preseason, it’s better to save yourself a, ahem, heap of frustration by finding a different tight end in 2009.</span></span></p></div>Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-19694549827832575582009-08-13T15:30:00.000-07:002009-11-11T10:40:50.524-08:00Sexy Hype Machine - 2009 NFL PreseasonAs the 2009 NFL preseason gets underway, every football journalist wants to be the first one to break the story on someone who they feel could be the next Adrian Peterson or Jerry Rice. While reading early positive reviews of football players can be encouraging in that they can provide an early read on who to target in your fantasy football draft, it’s important to remember that these guys are facing backups and non-roster invitees while wearing shorts in the sweltering August conditions of training camp. In other words, it’s too early to identify your surprise 1600-yard, 13-TD WR or RB before the first full week of preseason games takes place. However, one of the purposes of this piece is to at least cast a light on these featured players, as well as suggest players you should avoid drafting this year for various reasons. Last but not least, we have a group of players who could provide you with good value in the middle to late rounds of your draft. Some of the players on the latter list are former members of the so-called “Sexy Hype Machine”, but didn’t quite live up to the hype their stellar past pre-seasons helped to create.<br /><br /><br />As previously mentioned, this is the list of pre-season fantasy darlings. Any of these guys could be 2009’s version of Chris Johnson, but this early into the season, nothing is certain yet. Simply keep an eye on the August performances of these individuals, and the ones that continue to shine into September will be the ones you’ll want to target, and might possibly have to reach a little early for, on draft day.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">QB - Matt Ryan (Atl) </span>– Ever since his first NFL pass that turned into a 62-yard touchdown, Ryan made quite a splash in his 2008 rookie campaign. Now that Roddy White is signed and practicing after a holdout that lingered into two-a-day practices, Ryan has two top-tier receiving options in his arsenal that would make most signal callers drool. The Falcons signed future Hall-of-Fame TE Tony Gonzalez this offseason as a free agent. Even at 33 years old, Gonzalez can still deliver premier production, as he is coming off a second consecutive 90-catch, 1000-yard season. Don’t worry too much about the loss of slot receiver Harry Douglas this season, the Falcons recently signed veterans Marty Booker and Robert Ferguson, who can provide extensive depth and experience, if not a 4.3 40-yard-dash time.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">QB - Matt Schaub (Hou) </span>– As someone who reaped the benefits of his 400-yard fantasy playoff performance against Green Bay last year, feel free to label me a card-carrying member of the Schaub for President fan club. Regardless of my affinity, Houston has once again become fertile ground for fantasy football players, hearkening back to Warren Moon’s run-and-shoot heyday of the early 1990’s. Not only is all-world WR Andre Johnson the one WR who wouldn’t draw guffaws if he were drafted ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, but RB Steve Slaton has provided enough talent and production to force defenses from playing nickel and dime defenses on first and second down. Furthermore, WR Kevin Walter made great strides in gaining Schaub’s confidence last year, as well as another quality season from undervalued TE Owen Daniels, who you can probably draft a full three rounds after Kellen Winslow. With Sage Rosenfels now in Minnesota and no longer breathing down Schaub’s neck for playing time, 2009 is the year to grab Schaub as a great QB1, or as a member of an unbeatable 2 QB-headed monster.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">QB - Trent Edwards (Buf) </span>- Unless you’ve spent the summer in Azerbaijan, you probably heard that Terrell Owens was released from the Cowboys, and as his agent Drew Rosenhaus sought greener pastures for Owens, he found that his only, er, best option was Buffalo. Now that Owens is paired with burner Lee Evans, this tandem could help create the most interesting football season in Buffalo since Thurman Thomas and Jim Kelly retired. With Edwards firmly entrenched as the starting QB coupled with question marks in the running game stemming from Marshawn Lynch’s suspension, this sequence of events could lead to a big year for Edwards. His name may not jump off your roster like a Brady or Brees, but he could be one of the better fantasy QB2s in the NFL this year if T.O. maintains his best behavior, as he traditionally has in his first year with a new team.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">RB - Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)</span> - Finally, Fred Taylor has moved onto New England, and MJD sits atop the running back depth chart in Jacksonville. He has always been the goal line back as well as a force in PPR leagues. Well, reports out of Jaguar camp have now said that the UCLA alum has been occasionally lining up as a wideout in an effort to minimize the eventual pounding he’ll take this year. His speed, power, soft hands, and new role are what make me believe that he, not Adrian Peterson, should be the #1 overall fantasy pick this year.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">RB - Knowshon Moreno (Den)</span> - For all the questionable moves that the Broncos made during the tumultuous 2009 offseason, this draft acquisition could make all the pessimism of losing a franchise QB hurt a lot less for Denver fans. Not only has he shot up the depth chart during the preseason to the point where he is expected to start the first exhibition game against the 49ers, but it looks like Moreno will be on track to start at tailback Week 1 as well. He’s young and fast with fresh legs, and he has career backup Correll Buckhalter and Raider castoff Lamont Jordan as his primary competition. Factor in the Broncos’ excellent offensive line, WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal preventing teams from stacking eight in the box, and this could be an incredible rookie season for Moreno. If he’s available in the sixth round and I’m debating between a WR2 or a RB3, rest assured he’s mine.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">RB - Ronnie Brown (Mia)</span> - “It’s the sport of kings…better than diamond rings…football.” Nobody in the NFL made greater strides or saw their fantasy value skyrocket from the implementation of the “Wildcat” offense than runnin’ Ronnie (for those of you too young to remember/know, the first line of this post was an excerpt from the song from the movie Wildcats from…1986 – dang, I’m old, but I digress). In addition to being the featured back in Miami, Brown figures to be a bigger part of the Dolphins’ passing game this year. Since backup Ricky Williams is a year older and two steps slower, Brown will be counted on to move the ball both between the tackles as well as those unusual Wildcat sweeps…assuming he stays healthy.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">WR - DeSean Jackson (Phi)</span> - Jackson had some memorable highlights and lowlights in his 2008 rookie campaign, but if the amount of praise he has been given from teammates and coaches since training camp began is any indication, he figures to be an extremely valuable asset to fantasy football teams as well as the Eagles. Last season, he was considered a decent WR3 in a 12-team league, but that figures to change. Jackson is the consummate triple-threat as he had multiple rushing attempts in five games last year, and can also return punts. Based on the reports coming from Eagles camp, he should undoubtedly become the #1 passing option for Donovan McNabb, and his explosiveness could lead to DeSean doubling, or possibly tripling his TD output from his first year. Since the hype machine surrounding Jackson is no secret, you may need to spend a 5th or 6th round pick if you want him on your squad this year.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">WR - Calvin Johnson (Det)</span> - CalJohn, take me away! Lion fans have hope this year that, in addition to their team actually making it into the win column in 2009, that Calvin Johnson may be the best receiver in football not wearing a Cardinals jersey. Johnson has three things going for him: 1) At a very fast and strong 6’5”, 235, he fits the profile as a prototypical physical receiver who can muscle for the ball even in coverage. 2) He has a new quarterback who, unlike Dan Orlovsky, supposedly doesn’t run out of the back of the end zone. As soon as the coaching staff comes to their senses and begins playing #1 draft pick Matt Stafford, Johnson will flourish. 3) The Lions will be trailing virtually every opponent at some point in every game, so their passing attack will be their primary offense for the majority of every game. You’ll probably need to take CalJohn once Fitz and Andre Johnson are off the board in the late 2nd/early 3rd round.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">WR - Percy Harvin (Min)</span> - Harvin’s playmaking ability has drawn rave reviews, and he figures to become a dynamic part of the Viking offense this year. That said, he has three factors working against him. 1) Unretired legend Brett Favre hasn't had sufficient preseason time to get in sync with his receivers 2) Make no mistake: this is Adrian Peterson’s team. Harvin is, at best, the third receiving option behind WRs Bernard Berrian and TE Visanthe Shiancoe (bear in mind this is a run-first offense). Harvin will begin his NFL career as a kick returner and a slot receiver. Even though the hype machine is in full gear for Harvin, don’t get sucked in and take him too early. In fact, let someone else use a mid-round pick on Harvin.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">TE - Dallas Clark (Ind) </span>- With Marvin Harrison gone from Indianapolis, Clark becomes Peyton Manning's primary mid-range target, as well as the best receiving option over the middle. Since WR Anthony Gonzalez will replace Harrison at flanker, Clark will line up in the slot in three-receiver formations. As Manning and Clark get reacquainted this preseason, their timing has been described as "downright scary." 80 catches, 900 yards and 8 TDs are very attainable for Dallas in 2009. He should be one of the first four TEs off the board, as he can put up WR2 numbers, and rarely gets shut out of the Colt passing game.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">TE - Greg Olson (Chi)</span> - The former Hurricane has turned many a head in the preseason thus far. Slated to be Jay Cutler’s favorite medium-range target, Olson has the hands and ability to excel as a TE1 this season. The Bears’ revised playbook reportedly has a slew of plays which feature Olsen as the top read, and the coaching staff has reported that this third-year player is “read to explode” after a 54-catch, 5 TD campaign in 2008. A gifted quarterback like Cutler can only help Olsen’s value, so don’t be afraid to draft him before, say, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, or Owen Daniels.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">TE - Jason Witten (Dal)</span> - It’s no secret that Witten and Cowboy QB Tony Romo are best buddies who design plays together after hours. And it’s also no secret that former Cowboy malcontent Terrell Owens has left for, um, greener pastures in Buffalo. But the fact that the Cowboys don’t appear to have a wideout who will step up and take over as the WR1 in that offense leads me to believe that Witten is in for a monster season in 2009. Romo has proven that he will feed Witten the ball as if he were breastfeeding a newborn when the defense allows, so don’t be shocked if Witten matches or exceeds his monster 2007 season of 96-1145-7. Personally, he’s my TE1 this year.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-32171425468520387362009-08-05T12:42:00.000-07:002009-08-05T12:43:29.176-07:001993 – A Taste of SuccessBefore this season began, our league had used a draft system to initially acquire players from the free agent pool. In our fantasy baseball league, we had always auctioned off players. In 1993, everyone in our league was still in high school, none of us had jobs, and we all loved the auction environment; something about being able to own any player you want (as long as you’re willing to pay up) was inspiring. In a draft environment, you have no shot at Thurman Thomas or Sterling Sharpe if you draw poorly in the lottery. Although they take much longer, we decided to do our fantasy football league auction-style. It’s not like any of us had to be at work the next morning or had a wife to check in with!<br /><br />In spite of my fervent hatred of the 49ers after they embarrassed my Broncos 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV, I was not to be denied having Steve Young as my QB1. I spent 20% of my draft money on the intrepid Young after his stellar 1992 campaign as San Francisco’s full-time QB. Not only was he a great passer with high football IQ and the great Jerry Rice to throw to, but he was also able to make plays with his scrambling ability. This was the first time I resolved to take a player on a team I hated.<br /><br />Although John Elway had yet to rise to prominence as a fantasy QB, 1993 was the year he was granted a level of autonomy that had yet to pervade the rest of the NFL. This was the first season Elway was allowed to call his own plays in the huddle from a color-coded wristband he wore during games. Nowadays, you see just about every QB wearing this type of gear. Furthermore, the Broncos declared they would open up the offense and pass more. I must have been the only person privy to this info, because I got Elway late in the auction relatively cheap after most other people bought both their QBs, and couldn’t bid on a third passer.<br /><br />In 1993, having John Elway and Steve Young as my starting quarterbacks brought the same joy as celebrating Christmas morning every Sunday from September through December. Not only did they both have monster years passing for 4000+ yards each, but these athletically gifted athletes were marvelous to watch! Elway bore a cannon-arm that could heave a pass 70 yards downfield at approximately 70 miles per hour, and Young went on to post a passer rating over 100 while orchestrating the indomitable 49ers West Coast Offense, still a new phenomenon in those days.<br /><br />Aside from my quarterbacks, I felt like I had made all the right personnel moves. I would pick up marginal players like Broncos Glyn Milburn and Derek Russell off the waiver wire and they would score TDs when I had injuries or my starters were on bye. I remember one game I was playing against a team that started the great tight end Shannon Sharpe when Sharpe caught the ball, ran to the 2-yard line, and fumbled the ball into the end zone. Said fumble was recovered by Derek Russell, whom I started on a whim because I had another wideout on bye. I ended up winning that game by less than five points, so that fumble recovery in the end zone essentially won that week for me. I landed Sterling Sharpe in one of those dreaded 4-for-1 trades including an over-the-hill Herschel Walker (who I upsold as a PPR machine after he had an 11-catch performance one game), Curtis Duncan, a team defense, and some bum I can’t remember. The only reason I acquired Sterling was because my trade partner had to hang up the phone, as I could hear his dad yelling at him after a three-hour telephone conversation, and I wouldn’t let him leave to study for next morning’s vocab quiz until we sealed the deal.<br /><br />After 1993, I thought I had this fantasy football thing all figured out. Little did I know I wouldn’t win another fantasy football title for ten years, when I would be out of college and a full-fledged member of the working world. That I felt I knew so much more about fantasy football than my competitors, yet underperformed in these subsequent seasons is what led me to conclude that fantasy football success is comprised of 60% luck / 40% skill. You can draft a great team, but if you 1st round pick tears his ACL Week 1, there’s not a lot you can do to replace that level of production.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8788829797779611688.post-55663435124165392932009-08-05T11:46:00.000-07:002009-08-05T13:44:21.848-07:001992 – My First Year in Fantasy FootballOh, the rookie mistakes I made. Armed with the overall #4 pick, I figured I needed a franchise QB to serve as the backbone of my team. When it was my turn to pick, I chose Mark Rypien, who was fresh off a Super Bowl victory and still had “The Posse”, comprised of Hall-of-Fame WR Art Monk, as well as Gary Clark and Ricky Sanders, at his disposal. Amazingly, I left studs like Dan Marino and Jim Kelly (who would turn into a fantasy football royalty that year) on the board. I knew enough about the NFL to know that Marino and Kelly were supreme talents, but I wanted Rypien badly, as his value appeared higher in my newbie eyes. Needless to say, Rypien did not match his stellar 1991 campaign. In fact, he was, to be generous, mediocre, and would continue to prove that 1991 was the lone season that would shine on Rypien’s resume.<br /><br />My draft would only go from bad to worse. Although he only garnered 11 carries the year before, I was convinced a monster season was in store as I selected Bobby Humphrey with my second round pick (I just threw up in my mouth a little after typing that). Humphrey was pretty good when he was the starting RB on the Broncos his first couple years in the league, but he got traded to Miami in the offseason. Since this was before the days of Rotoworld and countless other fantasy sports information resources (you were lucky if you or someone you knew had a Prodigy account!), I failed to learn that my future second-round pick wasn’t even the starting running back on the Dolphins (the immortal Mark Higgs owned that honor)! The much-anticipated Week 2 Monday Night game against Cleveland featured Higgs getting 25 carries to Humphrey’s two (although Humphrey was more favorable in PPR leagues with 54 catches that season, he was still hardly second-round material).<br /><br />In the third round, I was thrilled to have taken RB Neal Anderson, a player I had seen shine for the Bears in previous years. Unfortunately, I failed to realize he was over the hill at this stage in his career. Although Anderson’s 11 TDs helped my team get a handful of wins, I realized after this inaugural season of fantasy football how much I had to learn about real vs. perceived player valuation.<br /><br />Speaking of over-the-hill football players, I selected Mark Clayton in the fourth round. I remember reading about his 12 TDs scored the season before, and simply assumed that as long as Marino was throwing him the rock, he was due for a repeat season of double-digit TDs. This would be Clayton’s last year as a Dolphin, as he was just awful with fewer catches than, ahem, Bobby Humphrey.<br /><br />I’ll spare you the painful details of the rest of my draft, but let’s just say I finished 4-10. Regardless of my sub-par performance, I was hooked like a video game junkie who just played Grand Theft Auto for the first time. On Sunday mornings at 10am, not even an earthquake could pry me away from the TV. In fact, I was at my worst when I was forced to travel with my Sunday School classmates to retirement homes to hang out with convalescing octogenarians. As soon as we got to the TV room, I would convince one of my classmates that Florence and Mildred on the back couch wanted someone to change the channel from “Meet the Press” to the Rams/Giants game. I know it sounds dirty, but if you had Rodney Hampton and Henry Ellard in your starting lineup, you might have done the same!<br /><br />My mom was both amazed and worried at the diligence with which I would spend hours talking trade. She envisioned me as a future Hollywood / Wall Street power broker as she witnessed my repeated attempts to fleece fellow league newbie Mike Winston of Thurman Thomas in exchange for a package of Gaston Green, Mark Duper, and Chip Lohmiller. Mom initially dismissed this fantasy football thing as a phase – little did she know I would spend hours of my future workdays as an adult poring over which defense to start instead of returning sometimes-urgent emails to clients.<br /><br />I had grown up primarily a baseball fan who only began to delve into NFL action once my sister, who then attended Denver University Law School, sent me one of those triangular pennant flags. Coupled with the fact that I watched John Elway in “The Drive” against Cleveland, I became a Bronco fan. This would result in much derision from my peers, who were either 1) Raider fans, the Bronco's long time arch-rival, or 2) 49er fans (the bane of my existence after Super Bowl XXIV) as I always loathed front-runners.Sammyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374802655734949470noreply@blogger.com0